The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[amogles]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Watching the TV news channels today, the impression I get is that the Financial Times journalist dreamt up the possibility that Poland and France will force the UK to pay for their farm subsidies over the next 10 years. FAKE NEWS! (More from the British press, that profits from selling lies) Nothing of the sort has come out of Brussels, in fact Davies, the UK minister for Brexit, has stated today they still have no figures at all. The EU will indeed present a bill to the UK, which Brussels insists the UK must pay. But how much, and when, has not been announced.

Basically, the EU thinks it can chalk up as much of a bill as it wants, and this can be a test of how much the UK is prepared to pay to get some sort of preferential deal over market access and whatnot.

Right now I don't really see a coherent counter strategy.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Without the Euro they could have balanced that, at least short-termish, by firing up the printing presses and printing their way out of debt, as they did so often in the past. They failed to understand that having a stable currency comes with duties as well as priviledges.

I agree having the euro blocked the "easy" solution but it was not the root cause of the problem!

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Chuff
	[..]While that may also seem similar to a divorce, I think in the end this strategy may instead work against the EU, as for all their bluster and scaremongering the UK is still a strategically significant ally. https://www.instituteforgovernment.o...ty-cooperation

Alliances serve mutual interests. By the same logic you could argue that the UK should be willing to pay more than its fair share.

[Chuff]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Alliances serve mutual interests. By the same logic you could argue that the UK should be willing to pay more than its fair share.

It's not the same logic at all. The UK was always willing to pay more than their fair share while part of the EU, we have done it for decades. Now the situation has changed and the cracks in the EU are now plain for all to see. It's no longer the same 'friendly' or 'amicable' relationship it once was, and obviously this changes how both feel they want to be treated and what they consider fair.

	Quote:	amogles
	Basically, the EU thinks it can chalk up as much of a bill as it wants, and this can be a test of how much the UK is prepared to pay to get some sort of preferential deal over market access and whatnot. Right now I don't really see a coherent counter strategy.

The European Project so far has been based on handing out money to smaller countries so they tow the EU line. In a way this isn't too dissimilar to how Blatter operated at FIFA. Travel around eastern Europe, or the smaller European States and you see signs like the one below up all over the place, normally stood next to brand new roads, buildings, parks or museums. It was said during the referendum that the UK could "reform from within". It's clear that this would never have been possible, as how can you expect countries to change when they're perfectly happy with the status quo (ie free money for infrastructure projects, and being able to offload their citizens across an entire continent).

I think what it comes down to in the end for the EU is money. They don't care that Germany, which basically is the EU, and France export far more to the UK than they receive. They don't care that a hard Brexit will also damage their economies so long as they can proceed with the European Project. And this means having money required to keep the smaller States happy. Which is why they're trying to nail the UK down with this "divorce bill" straight off the bat.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Chuff
	It's not the same logic at all. The UK was always willing to pay more than their fair share while part of the EU, we have done it for decades. Now the situation has changed and the cracks in the EU are now plain for all to see. It's no longer the same 'friendly' or 'amicable' relationship it once was, and obviously this changes how both feel they want to be treated and what they consider fair.

Paying its fair share is not the same as being a net contributor. Due to the UK rebate it didn't pay even that.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The European Project so far has been based on handing out money to smaller countries so they tow the EU line. In a way this isn't too dissimilar to how Blatter operated at FIFA. Travel around eastern Europe, or the smaller European States and you see signs like the one below up all over the place, normally stood next to brand new roads, buildings, parks or museums. It was said during the referendum that the UK could "reform from within". It's clear that this would never have been possible, as how can you expect countries to change when they're perfectly happy with the status quo (ie free money for infrastructure projects, and being able to offload their citizens across an entire continent). I think what it comes down to in the end for the EU is money. They don't care that Germany, which basically is the EU, and France export far more to the UK than they receive. They don't care that a hard Brexit will also damage their economies so long as they can proceed with the European Project. And this means having money required to keep the smaller States happy. Which is why they're trying to nail the UK down with this "divorce bill" straight off the bat.

Total BS as usual! The UK's net contribution represents about 5% of the budget an slight change in the EU VAT rate would easily recover this amount.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Total BS as usual! The UK's net contribution represents about 5% of the budget an slight change in the EU VAT rate would easily recover this amount.

Let's see how these states react when presented with "a slight change in the EU VAT rate".

[Chuff]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Paying its fair share is not the same as being a net contributor. Due to the UK rebate it didn't pay even that.

Do you have any links to back that statement up?

As of 2015 statistics: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/ho...ld-it-pay-for/

	Quote:
	How does Britain compare with other EU countries? For many years, Britain and Germany were the only significant net contributors to the EU budget. Now, however, there are ten countries who pay more in than they get back. In terms of total contribution, Britain remains the second biggest payer behind Germany. But when each contributor’s payment is divided by the number of people in the country, Britain sinks down the table. On a per-head basis, Britons are the eighth-biggest contributors to the EU. The biggest payers are the Dutch: every one them sends almost four times as much to Brussels.

So basically, we have been among the biggest net contributors but not the biggest in terms of Euro per member of the population.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Let's see how these states react when presented with "a slight change in the EU VAT rate".

Especially if it's a slight change in the VAT rate motivated by the need to be tough on the UK so bobody tries to follow down that road. In other words, sorry you Latvians, Dutch and Poles, the EU is increasing your tax to make you want to stay.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	Especially if it's a slight change in the VAT rate motivated by the need to be tough on the UK so bobody tries to follow down that road. In other words, sorry you Latvians, Dutch and Poles, the EU is increasing your tax to make you want to stay.

We're talking about finding about 9b, so we're talking about a couple of base points, given the size of market, say the rate goes from 0.3% to perhaps 0.305% or something like that. It really would not be noticed.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Do you have any links to back that statement up?

Huh? You did already.

I see no ambiguity in my statement but perhaps my English is lacking, so let me rephrase:
Being a net contributor doesn't necessarily mean you're paying your fair share.

[Odile]

Now that is the way to do it Mrs Theresa. No visit empty factories and locking journalists in a backroom, refuse to debate and meet the public ...:

https://www.facebook.com/theguardian...5382454886323/

who says Farron is a wet blanket

Farron then asked for his name and thanked him- old guy came back shhok his hand and gave him a big kiss respect

	Quote:	Odile
	Now that is the way to do it Mrs Theresa. No visit empty factories and locking journalists in a backroom, refuse to debate and meet the public ...: https://www.facebook.com/theguardian...5382454886323/ who says Farron is a wet blanket Farron then asked for his name and thanked him- old guy came back shhok his hand and gave him a big kiss respect

May doesn't want to meet real people she is going to continue to hurt with her domestic policies.. She should just do a Putin and be photographed with the same group of peasants in different locations all over Britain


I was wondering when we would hear from Yanis Varoufakis again. His take on the EU and how Brussels will do everything it can to frustrate and outmaneuver the upcoming election and May's attempt to strengthen her position.

[Chuff]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Huh? You did already. I see no ambiguity in my statement but perhaps my English is lacking, so let me rephrase: Being a net contributor doesn't necessarily mean you're paying your fair share.

No Urs, I provided a link that refuted your statements whereas you provided none to back your incorrect statements up. If I am being honest Urs I'm not sure whether the reason that you are so tiring to debate with is because of your English not allowing you to comprehend others or express yourself fully, or if you're just too naturally obtuse to look at things from a logical and balanced viewpoint. I suspect a mix of both, but either way, for me it is just a waste of time and in future I shall leave it to others more patient than I to do so.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Chuff
	No Urs, I provided a link that refuted your statements whereas you provided none to back your incorrect statements up. If I am being honest Urs I'm not sure whether the reason that you are so tiring to debate with is because of your English not allowing you to comprehend others or express yourself fully, or if you're just too naturally obtuse to look at things from a logical and balanced viewpoint. I suspect a mix of both, but either way, for me it is just a waste of time and in future I shall leave it to others more patient than I to do so.

Mhh...

I say the UK is a net contributor. You link an article that says the same. And yet this somehow, magically, refutes my statement.

I agree, someone has comprehension problems here. However it's not me. As for the rest of your post: It's as if you were talking about yourself.

[22 yards]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Mhh... I say the UK is a net contributor. You link an article that says the same. And yet this somehow, magically, refutes my statement. I agree, someone has comprehension problems here. However it's not me. As for the rest of your post: It's as if you were talking about yourself.

Urs Max wrote that net contributor =/= paying fair share. Richdog posted a link that shows that Britain is on the leader board of net contributors, yet fairly far down the ranking table of £€$/resident (a reasonable measure of fairness of contribution).

Seems to me that the two of you are agreeing furiously.

[marton]

Local election results coming in from the UK. By 6am, the Conservatives had gained more than 100 seats in England, while Labour had lost 45.

Ukip faces being wiped out at the ballot box after failing to hold onto a single seat at the local elections until now, so far they lost 30 seats (out of 146).

Karma, Cameron only held the Brexit referendum because of the threat from the UKIP and now they look like they will disappear

Source

LibDem also down around 10%.

So far only about a quarter of the results are in.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

In your dreams Juncker.

"European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has told a conference in Italy on the EU that "English is losing importance in Europe".

Amid tensions with the UK over looming Brexit negotiations, he said he was delivering his speech in French.

"Slowly but surely English is losing importance in Europe and also because France has an election," he said, explaining his choice of language."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39816044

English is the only language that is used and understood by all 27 members of the EU. I doubt many Polish/Hungarian/Croatian/etc people speak French.

[StirB]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	In your dreams Juncker. "European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has told a conference in Italy on the EU that "English is losing importance in Europe". Amid tensions with the UK over looming Brexit negotiations, he said he was delivering his speech in French. "Slowly but surely English is losing importance in Europe and also because France has an election," he said, explaining his choice of language." http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-39816044 English is the only language that is used and understood by all 27 members of the EU. I doubt many Polish/Hungarian/Croatian/etc people speak French.

There you go:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geogra...rench_speakers