The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

Brexit slowdown fears as industrial output falls and trade deficit grows.

Industrial output dropped by 0.5% in March, sharper than the 0.3% fall predicted by economists. It followed a 0.7% fall in February and brought the sector to a virtual standstill in the first quarter overall, with growth of just 0.1%.

The broad services and goods deficit jumped to £4.9bn in March from £2.6bn in February.

The figures suggested the sharp fall in the value of the pound since the Brexit vote did little to boost exports in March.

Source

Don't know why they blame this very poor performance on Brexit except that the lower level of the £ should have helped exports?
Main problem seems to be a surge in imports despite the low £.

	Quote:	marton
	Don't know why they blame this very poor performance on Brexit except that the lower level of the £ should have helped exports? Main problem seems to be a surge in imports despite the low £.

Presumably a similar volume of exports as before but costing more due to the low GB£.

Structurally the UK is not set-up to switch consumption to inland. Much food and, these days, most basic consumer goods are imported; the UK has only limited possibilities to change this. This was fixed back in the 80s when the UK abandoned (relatively) manufacturing more dramatically than most other countries.

Interesting article about the 'hidden' effects on British expats in the EU- totally apart from poor exchange rates and loss of reciprocal health care agreements.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...live-in-europe

[marton]

	Quote:
	Presumably a similar volume of exports as before but costing more due to the low GB£. Structurally the UK is not set-up to switch consumption to inland. Much food and, these days, most basic consumer goods are imported; the UK has only limited possibilities to change this. This was fixed back in the 80s when the UK abandoned (relatively) manufacturing more dramatically than most other countries.

Never did understand why the £ exchange rate crashed as it did.

When UK actually leaves the EU in 2019 then I could understand an impact on the £ but today UK is in the EU, trading tariff free so what changed to drive such a fall in the exchange rate.

Looks like a free gift to exporters except there is no statistic that show a big increase in exports!

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	marton
	Never did understand why the £ exchange rate crashed as it did. When UK actually leaves the EU in 2019 then I could understand an impact on the £ but today UK is in the EU, trading tariff free so what changed to drive such a fall in the exchange rate. Looks like a free gift to exporters except there is no statistic that show a big increase in exports!

It's called playing the money markets.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Looks like a free gift to exporters except there is no statistic that show a big increase in exports!

That plus the fact that the UK has not produced a positive balance of trade in about 20 years suggests there is an underlying problem... And now on top of this they intend to become a third country in a market that currently represents 44% to 48% of there exports!

There are some very challenging times ahead for the UK and most of it will almost certainly hit the average joe hard.

the biggest fall here was due to the disalignment of £ to Euro- and rise of the CHF at the same time as fall in £. The combined effect has been disastrous for the £ - and we have no idea what will happen as Brexit unfurls.

And yes, many people, some of them very rich indeed, are 'playing the money markets' - including Mrs May's husband's firm- of course. 'Playing the money market' (aka gambling- but as above, often with inside knowledge and more) - makes a few very rich- bankrupts others - and plays with real people's lives- who can do s*d all about it.

[Reb77Br]

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung article about the Downing Street meeting between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker is now available in English.

The Disastrous Brexit Dinner
Das desaströse Brexit Dinner

[Castro]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung article about the Downing Street meeting between Theresa May and Jean-Claude Juncker is now available in English. The Disastrous Brexit Dinner Das desaströse Brexit Dinner

Thats very nice of them

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	the biggest fall here was due to the disalignment of £ to Euro- and rise of the CHF at the same time as fall in £. The combined effect has been disastrous for the £ - and we have no idea what will happen as Brexit unfurls. And yes, many people, some of them very rich indeed, are 'playing the money markets' - including Mrs May's husband's firm- of course. 'Playing the money market' (aka gambling- but as above, often with inside knowledge and more) - makes a few very rich- bankrupts others - and plays with real people's lives- who can do s*d all about it.

They are taking a risk, betting against yourself. I am happy to bet against you as well.......Perhaps you did not notice the GBP is up over 5% since article 50 invoked. The UK will be very profitable outside the EU, the markets know it. 1 saving is they may be able to freeze your OAP .

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The UK will be very profitable outside the EU, the markets know it.

No. The markets are recognizing that a weak pound will give a bounce because of the FX rate not because the firms are being operationally more profitable! In fact the weak pound has failed to have any significant boost to exports, which is concerning.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	That plus the fact that the UK has not produced a positive balance of trade in about 20 years suggests there is an underlying problem... And now on top of this they intend to become a third country in a market that currently represents 44% to 48% of there exports! There are some very challenging times ahead for the UK and most of it will almost certainly hit the average joe hard.

The UK is a services economy, the balance of trade doesn't reflect that.

An factor beyond that is the following:
The UK is one of the world's top finance centers, probably 2nd after Wallstreet. As a consequence a lot of money is managed by the Brits, generating hefty fees. These fees aren't visible(easily identifiable) in the various "balances" (balance of trade, of payments, etc) yet they are British income financed and directly paid for by foreigners.

As a result of hard Brexit the financial center that London is today is bound to lose importance, a big portion of those fees will be collected elsewhere. According to this article from 2014 5.4 trillion were at that time managed by the UK, 37% of which was foreign money. However much you assume for management fees earned, you're talking serious coin, income that will be sorely missed.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	Never did understand why the £ exchange rate crashed as it did.

Because future events (often) have immediate effect, adjusted for uncertainty, interest rates differentials, and quite a few other details.

For simplicity's sake, let's say the Bank of England published today that starting next year, the £/€ exchange rate will be fixated at 1:1. Let us further assume that there's zero doubt for this to be fully implemented.

Leaving details aside, in such a scenario the exchange rate would immediately change very close to 1:1. Nobody in their right mind would buy the £ for significantly more (or sell for less) if they knew they can do so in half a year. This in turn would directly affect exchange rate for the remainder of the year as well, hence the immediate change to 1:1 or something very close.

Now, in reality there would be a host of factors causing the actual exchange rate to differ somewhat: uncertainty about the BoE's willingness and ability to act as announced, difference in interest rates, to name just the two most important ones. But these are details compared to the big picture outlined above.

The same mechanisms are at work WRT Brexit and the £:
Brexit is expected to negatively affect the UK economy. Since the currency is the tail that's wagged by the dog named "economy", the £ is expected to fall going forward. Now, because the majority are expecting a weaker £ they are less willing to buy at today's rates, which in turn has the £ drop today already.

[DanLF]

I read the following quote in the comment section of an article in the guardian relating to Brexit and the effect on UK citizens living in the EU. I was wondering if there is any truth in it:

"Unfortunatley it goes beyond EU countries as well. Here in Switzerland for example residence permits, right to buy property etc are based on an EU passport. Losing this reduces Brits rights to 3rd country status with much stricter immigartion rules. So another treaty needs to be added to the long list for the over 40,000 Brits in Switzerland and close to 35,000 Swiss living in the UK. Wonderful...."

I realise I might as well have said "bloke down the pub told me...", but anyway...

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...live-in-europe

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	DanLF
	I read the following quote in the comment section of an article in the guardian relating to Brexit and the effect on UK citizens living in the EU. I was wondering if there is any truth in it: "Unfortunatley it goes beyond EU countries as well. Here in Switzerland for example residence permits, right to buy property etc are based on an EU passport. Losing this reduces Brits rights to 3rd country status with much stricter immigartion rules. So another treaty needs to be added to the long list for the over 40,000 Brits in Switzerland and close to 35,000 Swiss living in the UK. Wonderful...." I realise I might as well have said "bloke down the pub told me...", but anyway... https://www.theguardian.com/politics...live-in-europe

Not completely. Yes, we're likely to be treated as third country nationals, but if you have a residence permit then you can still buy a main property here.

"Third-country nationals

You do not require a permit to buy a main residence (e.g. single-family house or owner-occupied flat) or building land where you live if you meet the following requirements:
•You hold a valid residence permit, generally a B permit for foreign nationals.
•You will live in that main residence for as long as you hold residence in that location.
•If you wish to build on the land that you have purchased, you must do so within one year.

You will require a permit in order to purchase the following types of apartment:
•Holiday apartment
•Housing unit in an apparthotel (hotel with flats)
•Second home

Owning real estate in Switzerland does not confer any entitlement to a residence permit."

https://www.ch.ch/en/real-estate-foreign-national/

But yes, a new treaty will probably be needed with Switzerland and other ETFA countries who aren't part of Schengen/EU.

[marton]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Not completely. Yes, we're likely to be treated as third country nationals, but if you have a residence permit then you can still buy a main property here. "Third-country nationals You do not require a permit to buy a main residence (e.g. single-family house or owner-occupied flat) or building land where you live if you meet the following requirements: •You hold a valid residence permit, generally a B permit for foreign nationals. •You will live in that main residence for as long as you hold residence in that location. •If you wish to build on the land that you have purchased, you must do so within one year. You will require a permit in order to purchase the following types of apartment: •Holiday apartment •Housing unit in an apparthotel (hotel with flats) •Second home Owning real estate in Switzerland does not confer any entitlement to a residence permit." https://www.ch.ch/en/real-estate-foreign-national/ But yes, a new treaty will probably be needed with Switzerland and other ETFA countries who aren't part of Schengen/EU.

True about resident permits, the elephant in the room is what happens at resident permit renewal time.
I assume this will in turn depend on the EU/UK negotiations and in particular the agreement about status of UK citizens living in the EU who want to remain after Brexit.

Currently the Swiss/UK relationship is governed by the bilateral treaties.
I assume these treaties will be cancelled on Brexit and Switzerland will automatically follow whatever relationship is agreed between UK/EU.
Maybe this will require new or changed bilateral treaties? I do not know!

[Medea Fleecestealer]

As far as Switzerland is concerned, it'll also depend on what the government decides regarding the proposed changes to getting and keeping a Swiss permit. That'll affect everyone whether they're EU nationals or not. If you're not integrated enough for the Swiss you could find your permit downgraded or even revoked no matter what your nationality.

[marton]

Seems to be very complex depending on personal circumstances like dual nationality, there is a case in the ECJ at the moment about ""the UK Home Office “started to take the view that EU law rights are instantly lost the moment an EU national becomes British”

Source

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	marton
	Seems to be very complex depending on personal circumstances like dual nationality, there is a case in the ECJ at the moment about ""the UK Home Office “started to take the view that EU law rights are instantly lost the moment an EU national becomes British”

Fair enough.

In CH, my kids are only viewed as Swiss citizens, in the US only as US, and in Canada only as Canadians, the only exception being if they were at the embassy or consulate of one of their other nationalities, so don't see why the UK should be different.

Tom

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	I assume these treaties will be cancelled on Brexit and Switzerland will automatically follow whatever relationship is agreed between UK/EU. Maybe this will require new or changed bilateral treaties? I do not know!

All treaties will be cancelled as per A50.3 and the UK will become a third country within the meaning of the bilateral and it will be treated accordingly.

The UK will have to negotiate it's own treaties with CH as CH is not party to the EU/UK negotiations and the EU has no right to negotiate on it's behalf. And in this respect there are two points to consider:
1. The EU will require CH to treat the UK as any other third country according to the bilateral agreements.
2. CH can't give the UK anything better than that accorded the US/Canada, with objections for the US/Canada.