The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Anti-Brexit press prints yet another anti-Brexit story. zzzzzzzzz. This tweet came as part of a conversation where it was clearly stated there are more possible outcomes in which leaving would be good for the UK. But that wouldn't make much of a story, would it?

But given the necessary additional reforms mentioned he's implying failure is clearly more likely than success.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	His real reason is pure envy: "Mr Juncker complained that if Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel or French President Emmanuel Macron had been in the chamber, it would have been full."

Well, unlike him, they've been elected.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Well, unlike him, they've been elected.

Not strictly true old chap. People in Germany elect their representatives. Once this is done, parliament, not the people, elect the chancellor.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Not strictly true old chap. People in Germany elect their representatives. Once this is done, parliament, not the people, elect the chancellor.

I think this applies to most EU countries, perhaps all. Voters don't elect people, they vote for a party. The party members or delegates then elect the leader.

[J2488]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	His real reason is pure envy: "Mr Juncker complained that if Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel or French President Emmanuel Macron had been in the chamber, it would have been full."

Actually i believe he was saying that just because Malta is not a prominent european country, it hasnt been shown the respect that might be shown to France or Germany.


I dont think envy has anything to do with it.

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	The Financial Times reported today that the EU is developing rule changes that could see London stripped of one of its flagship financial businesses by enabling territorial restrictions on the clearing of some euro-denominated transactions even before Britain leaves the union. London is the world’s biggest centre for clearing euro derivatives, handling three-quarters of all transactions, with an average daily value of $573 billion According to the ft, Lloyds of London also today confirmed setting up a new subsidiary in the EU, no information on whether this will be small or a large operation.

Politics meets reality!

A study by the European Central Bank has determined that a major factor for London is London's excellent access to fibreoptic communication cables enabling huge volumes of data to be moved worldwide almost instantaneously.
Trying to equip a mainland European centre with such a new network today would be a major and costly infrastructure project so moving euro clearing from London is no longer on the table.

I am surprised because I used to work for a communications company and I know that world wide there is a huge surplus of unused fibre optic cable in the ground. This was due to forecast requirements causing a lot of fibre optic to be laid but unexpected technology improvements like multi colour multiplexing which multiplied the data carrying capacity of existing fibre optic meant many new cables are unused.

Some interesting quotes from Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator:

	Quote:
	Trade will never be as fluid for a country which makes the choice to leave the single market and the customs union. Only a combination of the customs union and the rules of the single market make it possible to trade freely without friction between our countries. You don’t get the one without the other. By choosing to leave the union, you are moving yourself deliberately outside that external border which is the border of the single market..... UK exporters will face additional red tape over VAT declarations. And exports of live animals and animal products will be subject to border checks, which will pose a particular challenge on the border with the Republic of Ireland. Businesses, like Airbus in North Wales, which rely on integration with continental Europe will face new “constraints” in moving parts and staff between centres of production.

I have said on here before the biggest hurdle from leaving the single market will be the non-tarif element - border controls and the like - rather than any possible import duties. If you know anything about international trade, compare the way you do business with, say, the USA compared to the EU.

	Quote:	marton
	Politics meets reality! A study by the European Central Bank has determined that a major factor for London is London's excellent access to fibreoptic communication cables enabling huge volumes of data to be moved worldwide almost instantaneously. Trying to equip a mainland European centre with such a new network today would be a major and costly infrastructure project so moving euro clearing from London is no longer on the table. I am surprised because I used to work for a communications company and I know that world wide there is a huge surplus of unused fibre optic cable in the ground. This was due to forecast requirements causing a lot of fibre optic to be laid but unexpected technology improvements like multi colour multiplexing which multiplied the data carrying capacity of existing fibre optic meant many new cables are unused.

Do you have a link for that? I didn't see anything with a quick google (including in the ECBs own site) and I agree this doesn't make any sense.

[J2488]

	Quote:	marton
	Politics meets reality! A study by the European Central Bank has determined that a major factor for London is London's excellent access to fibreoptic communication cables enabling huge volumes of data to be moved worldwide almost instantaneously. Trying to equip a mainland European centre with such a new network today would be a major and costly infrastructure project so moving euro clearing from London is no longer on the table. I am surprised because I used to work for a communications company and I know that world wide there is a huge surplus of unused fibre optic cable in the ground. This was due to forecast requirements causing a lot of fibre optic to be laid but unexpected technology improvements like multi colour multiplexing which multiplied the data carrying capacity of existing fibre optic meant many new cables are unused.

Can you provide a source?


Thing is, most contemporary sources disagree with you. Fiber optic cables are not the fastest way to transmit data, and there are plenty of ways to bypass london:



http://www.nature.com/news/physics-i...72#/ref-link-1


Even if they decided to continue using fiber optics, i cannot fathom that the operators of such networks would not be perfectly happy still allowing firms abroad to use them, as they do today. The revenue they get from these firms having access to their fiber would be too much for them to even contemplate shutting them out, and risking that these firms go elsewhere.


And, all of this ignores the fact that fiber optic networks, while not cheap, are not as expensive as they used to be. The cost of building such a network in europe (if it is even needed), would be fairly modest, in comparison to the benefit it would bring to both financial firms and the EU.


i dont think connectivity of London is that strong of a factor. At least, not anymore.

[marton]

	Quote:	J2488
	Can you provide a source? Thing is, most contemporary sources disagree with you. Fiber optic cables are not the fastest way to transmit data, and there are plenty of ways to bypass london: http://www.nature.com/news/physics-i...72#/ref-link-1 Even if they decided to continue using fiber optics, i cannot fathom that the operators of such networks would not be perfectly happy still allowing firms abroad to use them, as they do today. The revenue they get from these firms having access to their fiber would be too much for them to even contemplate shutting them out, and risking that these firms go elsewhere. And, all of this ignores the fact that fiber optic networks, while not cheap, are not as expensive as they used to be. The cost of building such a network in europe (if it is even needed), would be fairly modest, in comparison to the benefit it would bring to both financial firms and the EU. i dont think connectivity of London is that strong of a factor. At least, not anymore.

Here is the source

[marton]

	Quote:
	Do you have a link for that? I didn't see anything with a quick google (including in the ECBs own site) and I agree this doesn't make any sense.

Here is the source

Sorry, forgot to post it

For those thinking German industry will press for a deal with the UK (and I remember the brexit faction arguing that on here) think again.

From Dieter Kempf, president of the BDI:

	Quote:
	Defending the single market, a key European project, must be the priority for the European Union. Europe must maintain the integrity of the single market and its four freedoms: goods, capital, services, and labour. “It is the responsibility of the British government to limit the damage on both sides of the Channel. Over the coming months, it will be extraordinarily difficult to avert negative effects on British businesses in particular.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...uk-over-brexit

The UK can just point at Japan and say "look, they've got a free trade agreement without FMOP and without paying into the EU budget".

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK can just point at Japan and say "look, they've got a free trade agreement without FMOP and without paying into the EU budget".

...but are far more likely to look into their own navel and wonder why there's blue fluff there, even though they haven't been wearing jeans.

With every passing day, Brexit is more and more of a f**k up of the highest magnitude.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK can just point at Japan and say "look, they've got a free trade agreement without FMOP and without paying into the EU budget".

Negotiations started in 2013 and the agreement is planned to go into force in 2019, so using this example an UK/EU trade agreement would go into force ca. 2024 or later?

	Quote:	marton
	Negotiations started in 2013 and the agreement is planned to go into force in 2019, so using this example an UK/EU trade agreement would go into force ca. 2024 or later?

Four years to agree on the deal and the UK and EU are starting on the same page. Shouldn't take as long.

[lewton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK can just point at Japan and say "look, they've got a free trade agreement without FMOP and without paying into the EU budget".

Free trade does not include passporting rights for Japanese banks into the EU and EU banks into Japan, does it?

[marton]

	Quote:	marton
	Negotiations started in 2013 and the agreement is planned to go into force in 2019, so using this example an UK/EU trade agreement would go into force ca. 2024 or later?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Four years to agree on the deal and the UK and EU are starting on the same page. Shouldn't take as long.

2013 to 2019 is 6 years, did you run out of fingers to count on?

[pdofr]

	Quote:
	For those thinking German industry will press for a deal with the UK (and I remember the brexit faction arguing that on here) think again. https://www.theguardian.com/politics...uk-over-brexit

Here's an example of a Bavarian company who would like things to stay as they are: Why untangling UK industry from Europe may be 'impossible'

At Dräxlmaier’s HQ, employees build prototypes for dashboards. Once crash-tested, the plastic core is mass-produced in Poland, bit-parts are manufactured in Tunisia and Japan, leather is made from Austrian cows and all components are finally assembled in Tamworth, Staffordshire, before being delivered to the relevant car manufacturer.

Nickel likens trade relations between Britain and Germany to the onboard systems that his company produces: complex, hand-thatched strings of colourful cables that come in billions of variations. “British and German manufacturing are so deeply intertwined, untangling these ties is basically impossible,” he said. “In the 1950s, maybe, but not now. You can bake English bread using only English flour. But you can’t make English cars from English parts. It’s impossible.”

I've worked in the vehicle manufacturing and importing sectors, and one of the things that jumps out at me is the idea of border delays, which could throw a large spanner in the works of Just In Time (JIT) manufacturing. Doing all that import/export documentation before the trade barriers came down was a significant per-vehicle cost.

Nickel likens trade relations between Britain and Germany to the onboard systems that his company produces: complex, hand-thatched strings of colourful cables that come in billions of variations. “British and German manufacturing are so deeply intertwined, untangling these ties is basically impossible,” he said. “In the 1950s, maybe, but not now. You can bake English bread using only English flour. But you can’t make English cars from English parts. It’s impossible.”

While barrier-free trade with Britain is important to German manufacturing, so are open borders. “Freedom of movement is massively important for us,” Nickel said. In Vilsbiburg, a large part of the workforce is focused solely on the logistics of transporting different components to the right place at the right time. At the height of the Arab spring protests, the company had to improvise not to break the supply chain from Tunisia, at one point flying in individual parts.

Unpredictable queues at border points would potentially ruin the so-called “long workbench” model of production that has allowed German carmakers to thrive in a globalised age.

David Davis reckons that can simply be replaced by tariff-free imports from Asia. I doubt it very much.

	Quote:
	David Davis, the British minister in charge of Brexit negotiations, argued in a recent article on Conservative Home that Britain could import more tariff-free electronic parts from Asia in the future, boosting its manufacturing base and eventually exporting cars rather than importing them from Germany. Confronted with such an argument, Dräxlmaier’s Nickel remained calm. “Britain has to understand that it can’t produce a Rolls-Royce on its own. It would really surprise me if the UK would sacrifice its last remaining industry on the altar of Brexit.”

	Quote:	marton
	2013 to 2019 is 6 years, did you run out of fingers to count on?

Deal was announced this year.