The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[J2488]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Why would I have to move back to Blighty?

Hope springs eternal...

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I'll be happy if there is no deal. There won't be of course. Btw, writing an open letter without offering a counter suggestion is not good negotiation.

There wont be, no. The UK government has backed itself into such a stupid corner, that it is nigh impossible to make good on their own promises. Theyre so far detached from reality, they may as well offer each UK citizen a gilded unicorn upon brexit completion. The EU can just wait and they get what they want (no deal instead of a UK-favouring deal), while the UK has to conclude decades of negotiations, wiith 27 countries, in 18 months. Good luck with that.


And, in a way, it serves the UK right. They wanted out, they will get out. They will get all the shit from getting out, and none of the benefits of staying in. People will suffer who dont deserve it, of course, but thats a given.

	Quote:	lewton
	Sounds good to me. No deal you wanted, no deal you will get. When I supported the leave vote in the Brexit referendum, I never expected the EU to actually be that good in the negotiation. I'm very positively surprised.

Im consistently surprised at the number of people who thought the EU was so weak.


This is an organisation literally built on negotiation, who have sucessfully negotiated with countries far bigger and better then the UK, and who have literally thousands of negotiators within their ranks. This is what they do, every single day...and somehow, tiny insignificant britain will be able to bend them over a barrel? Puh-lease...Its like challenging someone to a fight when they're in a tank and you're on a tricycle. Its only ever going to end in tears.

[marton]

	Quote:	J2488
	A sad day indeed when a frenchman is wittier and more likeable then the UK FS.

I will always remember the speech of the French leader at the Channel Tunnel opening.
He said something like "In France the trains rush through the country at 300+ Km/h whereas in England you are given the opportunity to enjoy the English countryside at much slower speeds."

[marton]

	Quote:	J2488
	Hope springs eternal... There wont be, no. The UK government has backed itself into such a stupid corner, that it is nigh impossible to make good on their own promises. Theyre so far detached from reality, they may as well offer each UK citizen a gilded unicorn upon brexit completion. The EU can just wait and they get what they want (no deal instead of a UK-favouring deal), while the UK has to conclude decades of negotiations, wiith 27 countries, in 18 months. Good luck with that. And, in a way, it serves the UK right. They wanted out, they will get out. They will get all the shit from getting out, and none of the benefits of staying in. People will suffer who dont deserve it, of course, but thats a given. Im consistently surprised at the number of people who thought the EU was so weak. This is an organisation literally built on negotiation, who have sucessfully negotiated with countries far bigger and better then the UK, and who have literally thousands of negotiators within their ranks. This is what they do, every single day...and somehow, tiny insignificant britain will be able to bend them over a barrel? Puh-lease...Its like challenging someone to a fight when they're in a tank and you're on a tricycle. Its only ever going to end in tears.

Problem is/was years of propaganda about how weak/ stupid/directionless the EU was simply to cover up the economic mismanagement by successive UK Governments.

[J2488]

	Quote:	marton
	Problem is/was years of propaganda about how weak/ stupid/directionless the EU was simply to cover up the economic mismanagement by successive UK Governments.

Could very well be true.


The chickens are coming home to roost, then.


UK thought the EU was weak, and the EU allowed the little englanders their fiction. Now, when push comes to shove, the EU rolls up its decievingly long sleeves, exposes a surprisingly meaty forearm, and gives the UK a mighty backhander.


Im loving the show so far :-D


Its like a spider, toying with its prey.

	Quote:	J2488
	There wont be, no. The UK government has backed itself into such a stupid corner, that it is nigh impossible to make good on their own promises. Theyre so far detached from reality, they may as well offer each UK citizen a gilded unicorn upon brexit completion. The EU can just wait and they get what they want (no deal instead of a UK-favouring deal), while the UK has to conclude decades of negotiations, wiith 27 countries, in 18 months. Good luck with that.

You have absolutely no evidence for any of this. You're just making it up. For starters, the EU have said on numerous occasions that no deal would be bad for them and it's not something they'd be happy to accept.

	Quote:	J2488
	This is an organisation literally built on negotiation, who have successfully negotiated with countries far bigger and better then the UK

Oh yeah? Name one. Name a single country "far bigger and better" than the UK where the EU has negotiated a free trade deal and where it is now in place.

[J2488]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	You have absolutely no evidence for any of this. You're just making it up. For starters, the EU have said on numerous occasions that no deal would be bad for them and it's not something they'd be happy to accept. Oh yeah? Name one. Name a single country "far bigger and better" than the UK where the EU has negotiated a free trade deal and where it is now in place.

No Deal would be far preferable to the EU than a Pro-UK deal.


To get that, they dont have to do anything other than collect brexiteer tears.


The UK, on the other hand, cannot afford to do nothing. The onus is all on the UK.


EU Trade Agreements:

	Quote:	J2488
	No Deal would be far preferable to the EU than a Pro-UK deal. To get that, they dont have to do anything other than collect brexiteer tears. The UK, on the other hand, cannot afford to do nothing. The onus is all on the UK. EU Trade Agreements:

How would no deal be better for the EU? The UK imports £300 billion worth of goods and services every year from the EU. Likewise, the EU has 3.5 million citizens in the UK. Not having a deal would not be better for them.

And there's no country on that list that the EU has successfully negotiated with that is "far bigger and better" than the UK.

I've been accused of hating the UK on here (I don't). But from the tone of the last few posts I think we've found some people that may.

Didn't they just sign a trade deal with Japan, a country with over twice the population of GB and a GDP almost twice as big?

[amogles]

	Quote:	J2488
	UK thought the EU was weak, and the EU allowed the little englanders their fiction. Now, when push comes to shove, the EU rolls up its decievingly long sleeves, exposes a surprisingly meaty forearm, and gives the UK a mighty backhander. Im loving the show so far :-D Its like a spider, toying with its prey.

If you think this is a show for enternment, you're very much mistaken.

It's never right to applaud the big guy who kicks the little guy when he's down.

If the Eu wants to drive at a hard and punitive Brexit, beacuse, in their own view, they want to scare the cr@p out of other countries thinking of leaving, it seems to me they are setting a poor precedent.

I know comparisons to the old USSR are tiresome, but those guys maintained cohesion by scaring the cr@p out of the weaker countries. Just look where that got them in the end. and look how popular the Russians are in those countries today.

I'm not claiming to have an ideal solution here. On the contrary, I think it's a mess for both sides. But any attempt to strong arm the situation will only ultimately benefit the more radical political elements.

	Quote:
	Didn't they just sign a trade deal with Japan, a country with over twice the population of GB and a GDP almost twice as big?

But according to marton this isn't valid yet

I hope it is though, a free trade deal without FMOP and budget contributions will prove it can be done.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	Pretty sure that would not be affected - there is something similar in Scandinavia inolving Norway.

There is a specific protocol in the treaties to allow for the U.K. / Irish agreement which under A50 will no longer apply after the U.K. exits.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	But according to marton this isn't valid yet I hope it is though, a free trade deal without FMOP and budget contributions will prove it can be done.

It seems to have been announced on the 5th or 6th of July, seems pretty valid.

The bad news for Britain, is that Japan will be massively scaling back the landing of goods in the UK to take into the EU after Brexit, and many Japanese companies will be looking to relocate. Having grown up in the Midlands, I can tell you they were BIG employers there.

Source (one of many reporting it):
http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000185466.pdf

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	There is a specific protocol in the treaties to allow for the U.K. / Irish agreement which under A50 will no longer apply after the U.K. exits.

Surely the CTA benefits Ireland more than it benefits the UK.
So shouldn't Ireland be fighting its corner to be able to keep it, or at least obtain some compromise?
(and if you look at the history of the CTA it hasn't at all been set in stone and left untouched since 1923 but has been modified and renegotiated countless times, so this wouldn't be without precedent)

[pdofr]

	Quote:
	The bad news for Britain, is that Japan will be massively scaling back the landing of goods in the UK to take into the EU after Brexit, and many Japanese companies will be looking to relocate.

Having worked in the vehicle industry myself at the time, the UK's access to the EU was a primary reason for the Japanese to choose it in the first place.

In the 1970s/1980s, France, Germany, Italy and Spain were extremely protective towards their own vehicle manufacturers. Japanese manufacturers had about zero chance of setting up anywhere in Europe apart from the UK.

	Quote:
	Having grown up in the Midlands, I can tell you they were BIG employers there.

It isn't just the vehicle factories, there's a whole raft of engineering and service companies who supply them, and of course smaller companies who service and supply those.

	Quote:	pdofr
	It isn't just the vehicle factories, there's a whole raft of engineering and service companies who supply them, and of course smaller companies who service and supply those.

In Telford alone, there are other huge corporations like Ricoh, Hitatchi from Japan. There are other huge Chinese and Taiwanese companies like Mitac and Tatung etc who must also be thinking about access to the EU now too.

BoJo telling the EU to whistle will surely help with keeping negotiations positive hey t*at.

[marton]

	Quote:
	It seems to have been announced on the 5th or 6th of July, seems pretty valid. The bad news for Britain, is that Japan will be massively scaling back the landing of goods in the UK to take into the EU after Brexit, and many Japanese companies will be looking to relocate. Having grown up in the Midlands, I can tell you they were BIG employers there. Source (one of many reporting it): http://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000185466.pdf

What was announced in July was a political decision to carry on negotiating the trade deal. It is not yet signed and there are a number of issues to resolve.

If you bother to read the link you posted you will find "we will be sending a strong message by reaching agreement in principle on the Japan-EU EPA within this year. "

Agreement in principle is not the same as a fully signed agreement. As they say "many a slip twixt cup and lip"! Try googling it

[marton]

	Quote:
	BoJo telling the EU to whistle will surely help with keeping negotiations positive hey t*at.

Especially as he does not have an official role in the UK Brexit negotiation team.

Although it pains me to say it, but it appears marton was right

On the other side it reinforces the point that the EU has yet to conclude a deal with a country "far bigger and better" than the UK

And this from the pro Remain FT (an excellent article BTW, whatever your view is).



From Brexit to fake trade deals — the curse of confirmation bias

The most dangerous fake news of our time are the stories that fall into the too-good-to-be-true category. Like the one that the EU and Japan have reached a trade deal.

The problem with the EU-Japan “trade agreement” is simply that it is not yet a trade agreement. The difficult bits still have to be agreed, including the vexed question over investor tribunals. The latter was the reason why the EU-Canada economic and trade pact almost faltered last year.

Parliaments in EU member states have since become even more hostile to such private-sector courts that override national legal systems.

So why did the EU and Japan announce a deal that is not ready? Look at the timing. It was intended as a public relations coup on the eve of the Group of 20 meeting. The EU wanted to signal its commitment to free trade and to isolate President Donald Trump of the US.

The uncritical reception of the EU-Japan trade story is a good example of what psychologists refer to as confirmation bias, a tendency to filter out everything that is not consistent with our beliefs. We believe in free trade, hence, we want an EU-Japan deal to be true. And then we take the fateful step of believing it is, as opposed to calling it what it really is: a shameful attempt at manipulation.

Confirmation bias is everywhere. It is rare that media commentators cross the line between what they want to be true and what they forecast is going to happen. In Brexit debates, those advocating Britain’s exit from the EU underestimated the many technical problems. Remain supporters first misjudged the political dynamics and then overplayed the possibility of a Brexit reversal. Now they are making a big deal of the eurozone’s stronger economic growth during the first quarter.

Their behaviour is no better than that of the Brexiters. The story conveniently ignores what happened in the previous eight years. The eurozone fell into a much deeper hole than the UK after the global financial crisis and is now bouncing back a little more. Official unemployment rates are falling. But as Peter Praet, chief economist of the European Central Bank, reminded us last week: the assessment of the eurozone economy is different if you take a wider metric of unemployment that includes the quality of employment and the large number of discouraged workers. Under this measure, unemployment in the eurozone is a whopping 18 per cent. This is not a story that sits easily with the narrative of a successful eurozone and a pending failure of the UK.

Another example of confirmation bias is the debate about the future of the euro. It is no coincidence that Eurosceptics would relish nothing more than the demise of the euro. They kept on underestimating the political cohesion of the eurozone.

But euro enthusiasts are not any better. Their innate complacency about the serial failures of the banking union and the rise in macroeconomic imbalances is the biggest threat to the sustainability of the single currency.

Daniel Kahneman, the psychologist, has identified two further sources of bias in his book Thinking, Fast and Slow. One is hindsight bias. Mr Kahneman cites as an example the now popular notion that global financial crisis was bound to happen. The truth is that only a minority of bankers, analysts, journalists and politicians saw it coming. Remember the nonsense about the great moderation?

The second one he mentions is outcome bias — where we judge a decision to be right or wrong by whether it was successful or not. We applauded the hedge fund managers who bet against the subprime market in the US when their assumption turned out to be correct. But what if the subprime crisis had blown up only one year later? The bet might not have worked, and our judgment would have been the opposite.

Getting rid of these biases is hard. We like to see our prejudices confirmed, our forecasts come true and our professional honour respected. Confirmation bias is like a drug. It feels great while you are confirming your beliefs, but not so much when you wake up in the morning to find that your country has left the EU.

What to do about it? Fact checking is not the answer. We are not lacking facts, or access to facts. The problem with confirmation bias is that we filter out the inconvenient ones. Trying to argue the opposite case of what you believe can be a good discipline. In the EU-Japan trade story, it would have been enough simply to make the counterfactual case: would the EU and Japan have chosen the eve of a G20 summit to declare that they utterly failed to reach the agreement? If you believe that, you believe anything.

Source

Ok, point taken, but does anyone believe it isn't going to be signed off in the next few months?

Or, probably more significantly, does anyone believe it won't be signed off before Brexit is finalised, because if it is, then it's a huge blow for the UK.