The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[rainer_d]

	Quote:	marton
	I wonder what projects the UK Government is starting to fill any holes caused by Brexit?

Maybe they'll re-open the coal-mines?

[marton]

	Quote:	rainer_d
	Maybe they'll re-open the coal-mines?

But that will just create bigger holes. boom boom

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	pdofr
	As a non-Brexit aside, suspicions have been voiced that the roll out of so-called "Smart electricity meters" to UK homes is a means to ration electricity in the future. Ireland would do well to avoid the risk of being dependant on a country which is expecting to have insufficient power generation resources for its own population.

Well I gather the idea is to harness the Atlantic winds and sell rather than buy

But you do have a point, from just a quick look at the literature it appears that continuity of supply for NI is dependent on an All-Island strategy, something else that needs to be sorted out no doubt.

[lewton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Unemployment still falling, no doubt this will be spun as a bad thing by the re-moaners. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk...093900647.html

The times when having a job guaranteed a decent living are over.
The unemployment by itself means nothing without data on what kind of jobs are on the raise and what kind of jobs are being eliminated.

A fall in unemployment might also be due to the effect of EU nationals leaving the country. Sounds great because sounds like Brexit is serving its purpose, but it is only good while unemployed EU nationals are leaving. When they start laving with their jobs the UK will have a problem.

[fatmanfilms]

The reward for hard Brexit: Economy to swell by £135bn EVERY YEAR, experts calculate http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...iff-University

Good that they are using entirely unbiased sources to create such a paper...

http://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/about-us/

About Us

Economists for Free Trade (EFT) is a group of leading economists, formerly known as Economists for Brexit (EfB), who believe the UK’s optimal Brexit path is outside the single market and customs union, moving towards an ultimate position of global free trade as a full member of the World Trade Organisation.


Also, if it boosts it by £135bn EVERY year, then in 8 years or so, we'll be raking in an extra trillion quid a year compared to now, and by 2100 we'll be raking in an extra £10tn. Seems likely.

[lewton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The reward for hard Brexit: Economy to swell by £135bn EVERY YEAR, experts calculate http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...iff-University

According to my Twitter feed (I don't have the time to validate the claim), those experts seem to mention somewhere in their reports that there are currently passport controls between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Good that they are using entirely unbiased sources to create such a paper... http://www.economistsforfreetrade.com/about-us/ About Us Economists for Free Trade (EFT) is a group of leading economists, formerly known as Economists for Brexit (EfB), who believe the UK’s optimal Brexit path is outside the single market and customs union, moving towards an ultimate position of global free trade as a full member of the World Trade Organisation. Also, if it boosts it by £135bn EVERY year, then in 8 years or so, we'll be raking in an extra trillion quid a year compared to now, and by 2100 we'll be raking in an extra £10tn. Seems likely.

Well of they think it's that beneficial they would hardly be REMOANING

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The reward for hard Brexit: Economy to swell by £135bn EVERY YEAR, experts calculate http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...iff-University

Ooh, cool! I wonder what each of those £s will be worth in a few years' time. Probably doesn't matter much, since the UK will have precious few trading partners anyway.

Hey, with luck, sterling could go the way of the Zimbabwean dollar and we'd see a multi-quadrillion pound economy in next to no time!

[marton]

	Quote:	lewton
	According to my Twitter feed (I don't have the time to validate the claim), those experts seem to mention somewhere in their reports that there are currently passport controls between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

Indeed both states are in the Common Travel area so there are no regular controls.
But like in the Schengen area an immigration officer can always pop up and ask for proof of identity; proof does not have to be a passport.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Hey, with luck, sterling could go the way of the Zimbabwean dollar and we'd see a multi-quadrillion pound economy in next to no time!

At least they know how to create billionaires.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Ooh, cool! I wonder what each of those £s will be worth in a few years' time. Probably doesn't matter much, since the UK will have precious few trading partners anyway. Hey, with luck, sterling could go the way of the Zimbabwean dollar and we'd see a multi-quadrillion pound economy in next to no time!

Realistically higher in 5 years time V CHF than today @ 1.242. Fancy a bet? I guess you would actually pay if you lost unlike an older member from the French part.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Realistically higher in 5 years time V CHF than today @ 1.242. Fancy a bet? I guess you would actually pay if you lost unlike an older member from the French part.

Really?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Really?

How about a 200 CHF bet then?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Really?

You'v just depicted the CHF's huge overvaluation, kind of made FMF's point

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	lewton
	According to my Twitter feed (I don't have the time to validate the claim), those experts seem to mention somewhere in their reports that there are currently passport controls between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

They also seem to think that 70% - 80% of Irish exports go to the UK, when in fact it's about 14%, more or less the same as with Belgium!

When these guys can't grasp the basic facts, it's hard to credit their conclusions...

[lewton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	They also seem to think that 70% - 80% of Irish exports go to the UK, when in fact it's about 14%, more or less the same as with Belgium! When these guys can't grasp the basic facts, it's hard to credit their conclusions...

I guess if they were competent they would not have been pro Brexit.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	How about a 200 CHF bet then?

Shouldn't you be betting in GBP, if you're that confident?

Anyway, sure. Check back with me on 21.08.2022.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	You'v just depicted the CHF's huge overvaluation, kind of made FMF's point

Actually.........

no.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Quote: Urs Max You'v just depicted the CHF's "huge overvaluation", kind of made FMF's point Actually......... no.

I just realise i forgot the apostrophes (added above).

I agree that the decades-long fall of most currencies vs the CHF is expression of the CHF's actual strength, rather than some huge overvaluation. The recent surge (10-20%) may be retraced but that alone won't change the long-term trend.