The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Shouldn't you be betting in GBP, if you're that confident? Anyway, sure. Check back with me on 21.08.2022.

Marked in my calendar for 21.08 2022. £200 if you prefer?

I had a bet with a 'friend' on FB in 2012 (1oz of gold) he claimed Gold would be above $2500 by mid 2017 , he has unfriended & blocked me after I reminded him in January

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Shouldn't you be betting in GBP, if you're that confident? Anyway, sure. Check back with me on 21.08.2022.

With the amount in GBP you lose more than you win.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	With the amount in GBP you lose more than you win.

The currency will be the same for both parties, happy to increase the bet to £200 rather than 200 CHF if 22 yards prefers.

[Blueangel]

An aspect of Brexit that wasn't championed by either side, but which was always paramount to myself and my former colleagues...The EU-US Open Skies Agreement. In a new report, airports which are usually bitter rivals, have united on this front...

	Quote:
	Growing uncertainty about an 'open skies' deal between the UK and European Union countries ahead of Brexit risks triggering a catastrophic slump in British air travel, according to the country's biggest airports. Sky News has obtained a confidential report submitted to Government by Gatwick, Heathrow, London City, Manchester and Stansted airports, which urges the EU and the UK Government to target October next year as the deadline for an interim aviation arrangement.

http://news.sky.com/story/uk-air-tra...-warn-11000318

As for fatmanfilms' bet -
GBP 1.00 = EUR 1.09
GBP 1.00 = CHF 1.23

I remember the days when it was GBP 1.00 = EUR 1.71

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	An aspect of Brexit that wasn't championed by either side, but which was always paramount to myself and my former colleagues...The EU-US Open Skies Agreement. In a new report, airports which are usually bitter rivals, have united on this front... http://news.sky.com/story/uk-air-tra...-warn-11000318 As for fatmanfilms' bet - GBP 1.00 = EUR 1.09 GBP 1.00 = CHF 1.23 I remember the days when it was GBP 1.00 = EUR 1.71

CHF went from 1.80 to 2.61 to the £ & I bought my USD's for under 50p in the not so distant past.

Currencies go in & out of fashion. I like to look at intrinsic value which is why I believe I will win my bet. To quote Warren Buffet, 'markets are a voting machine short term & a weighing machine long term'

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	The currency will be the same for both parties, happy to increase the bet to £200 rather than 200 CHF if 22 yards prefers.

Of course it will be the same £ amount for both if that's what you chose but that's not the point.

Let's say you bet £200:
- if 22y wins the £ may have dropped by 20% to 1.00 so he'll earn 200CHF
- if FMF wins the £ may have risen by 20% to 1.50 so 22y pays 300CHF

	Quote:
	Actually......... no.

Apologies, it may have been useful to state what that chart shows. It's GBP/USD. But you probably worked that out.

Same story for GBP vs any decent currency, over decades.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	I just realise i forgot the apostrophes (added above). I agree that the decades-long fall of most currencies vs the CHF is expression of the CHF's actual strength, rather than some huge overvaluation. The recent surge (10-20%) may be retraced but that alone won't change the long-term trend.

Glad you see things my way.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The currency will be the same for both parties, happy to increase decrease the bet to £200 rather than 200 CHF if 22 yards prefers.

Couldn't resist.

Obviously, I'll stick with CHF. My winnings will be going to my local Tierheim, so CHFs are better anyway.

[marton]

Another obscure statement by May's team

Justice minister Dominic Raab has conceded the UK would keep “half an eye” on rulings by the European Union’s highest court after Brexit as the government appeared to soften its stance on how heavily the bloc would influence UK law.

Source

The ongoing lack of clarity by the Govt. on Brexit is very troubling; they seem to hope they will somehow work in a fog and be enabled to bend things in any direction.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Justice minister Dominic Raab has conceded the UK would keep “half an eye” on rulings by the European Union’s highest court after Brexit as the government appeared to soften its stance on how heavily the bloc would influence UK law.

If you have EU laws incorporate into UK law and the only rulings on them have been EU once, you have go with them, otherwise it would create great uncertainty - having the same law in different jurisdictions applied differently is not realistic.

[Reb77Br]

Anatomy of a Kremlin UKIP - Brexit Paid Troll

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	Another obscure statement by May's team Justice minister Dominic Raab has conceded the UK would keep “half an eye” on rulings by the European Union’s highest court after Brexit as the government appeared to soften its stance on how heavily the bloc would influence UK law. Source The ongoing lack of clarity by the Govt. on Brexit is very troubling; they seem to hope they will somehow work in a fog and be enabled to bend things in any direction.

So the ECJ will keep showing the way and UK will follow, just not forcibly (like Switzerland's "autonomer Nachvollzug", "autonomously" following and assuming EU law, LOL).

Btw, that's the government's position. Do UK courts have to pay heed and accept? Does anyone know?

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	If you have EU laws incorporate into UK law and the only rulings on them have been EU once, you have go with them, otherwise it would create great uncertainty - having the same law in different jurisdictions applied differently is not realistic.

I foresee a great money earner for lawyers arguing whether individual cases are under UK laws that are or contain vanilla incorporated EU laws or not.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	I foresee a great money earner for lawyers arguing whether individual cases are under UK laws that are or contain vanilla incorporated EU laws or not.

I don't see how imported EU laws can be correctly applied in the UK. Every law, EU or otherwise, has landmark cases, case history applications and precedents that determine how it should be currently applied. Will this be imported too, or will the courts have to begin from scratch when determining if a law is being correctly applied?

It's an absolute legal minefield.

I also want to see if the people affected by the latest Home Office blunder will be correctly compensated for the distress caused...

	Quote:
	The Home Office is investigating after 100 deportation letters were sent in error to EU citizens living in the UK. A Home Office spokesperson said "a limited number of letters" were sent by mistake and the department is "urgently looking into why this happened".

http://news.sky.com/story/home-offic...in-uk-11001868

And following on from my post yesterday on the matter...

	Quote:
	Pound hits lowest level since 2009 against the euro Sterling has headed close to €1.08, leaving Britons enjoying holidays at French campsites and Spanish beaches facing higher costs.

http://news.sky.com/story/pound-hits...-euro-11001861

[marton]

The Home Office has ordered an official review of Britain's immigration figures after new exit checks at the borders found there may be fewer immigrants in the country than previously thought.

The Government will reveal on Thursday that new border checks introduced last year found 97 percent of international students - one of the biggest groups of immigrants - left after finishing their studies.

The official immigration figures are based on relatively small-scale passenger surveys at airports, even though they are one of the most politically sensitive pieces of data which dominated recent election campaigns and the Brexit referendum.

Source

Like something by Inspector Clouseau

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	The Home Office has ordered an official review of Britain's immigration figures after new exit checks at the borders found there may be fewer immigrants in the country than previously thought

Between that and the 100 letters they sent out, it is hard to see how anyone could have confidence in their ability to protect EU citizens rights after BREXIT.

[marton]

Brexit's harsh reality dawns as UK government sets out plan for talks.

Opinion piece in CNN http://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/25/eu...ers/index.html.

From the link-

	Quote:
	After the EU's growing impatience at the lack of preparedness from the UK side in the first two rounds, the British government has published several Brexit "position papers" setting out how it sees the UK's relationship with Europe once it leaves in just 19 months' time. From the point of view of Brussels, the papers still represent far too much of the UK's desire to "have its cake and eat it".

	Quote:
	Every year, 2.6M trucks pass through the Channel port of Dover without the need for customs checks, posing a huge infrastructure challenge post-Brexit. Last weekend, Sir Paul Jenkins, who was the British government's top legal official for nearly a decade, said May was "foolish" to think the UK could carry on reaping the economic benefits of access to the single market without adhering to EU law.

	Quote:
	The future of the Irish border raises serious questions because any suggestion of a "hard border", with checkpoints, risks undermining more than two decades of the peace process between Northern Ireland, the republic and the British government. Yet a porous border would also mean there would be no guarantee that goods entering post-Brexit Northern Ireland from the rest of the world -- controversial chlorinated chicken from the US, for example -- would not subsequently travel south and enter the EU in breach of single market rules.

	Quote:
	On arbitration of disputes between the UK and EU, the British government accepts that the ECJ could still have jurisdiction during the transition period. Wrestling free of the ECJ, in particular, is a totemic demand of the anti-European Tory right wing, and any suggestion of a continuing relationship with it could cause a revolt.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Between that and the 100 letters they sent out, it is hard to see how anyone could have confidence in their ability to protect EU citizens rights after BREXIT.

I saw Alexis Conran on tv this morning saying that his German wife has to fill in an 8 page form, so that a decision can be made on if she will be allowed to stay in the UK, even though she's lived and worked in the UK for 25yrs.

[Blueangel]

Just in case anyone hasn't seen and heard this, turn the volume up

http://www.bbc.com/news/video_and_au...eard-it-before

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	Anatomy of a Kremlin UKIP - Brexit Paid Troll

A follow-up to this, again from the Brexitballs Facebook page:

	Quote:
	"What many suspected all along. Leave.EU, with the possible alleged help and/or funding of the Russian state/connected oligarchs, astroturfed social media with paid shill accounts and bots to move public opinion. Andy Wigmore is co-director of Leave.EU. He was confronted by researchers and a Guardian journalist about the connections between his organisation and what appear to be Russian paid trolls advocating Brexit. If this isn't a debasing and hijacking of democracy I don't know what is. Twitter screenshot"

The @DavidJo… Twitter account Andy Wigmore also replies to in the Twitter screenshot is the one that's the subject of the "Anatomy of a troll" link above.

More discussion about this on Guardian/Observer journalist Carole Cadwalladr's Twitter account.