The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[amogles]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I think a hard Berxit will be the outcome, which is what the PM wants, hardly any surprise to me.

The PM posiibly wants a hard Brexit.
The EU is pretending to want a hard Brexit. We'll find out what they really want after the German election. But let's assume they stay consistent.

So at least looking at the stars the way they are aligned now, everybody wants a hard Brexit but the negotiations seem to be about a soft Brexit.

Why?

	Quote:	amogles
	The PM posiibly wants a hard Brexit. The EU is pretending to want a hard Brexit. We'll find out what they really want after the German election. But let's assume they stay consistent. So at least looking at the stars the way they are aligned now, everybody wants a hard Brexit but the negotiations seem to be about a soft Brexit. Why?

Everyone and his dog is pretending it's going to be a hard Brexit.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	While the overall outcome of the recent talks are not good, they do seem to have come to some kind of understanding on a few things: - Agreed the definition of pending cases for the EU courts and accepted the UK jurists will not remain on the bench for such cases - Agreed to the continued mutual recognition of professional qualifications for existing exiles, no word on new arrivals after Mar 2019 - Agreed to preserve existing social welfare and health rights for existing exiles, again no word on what happens to new arrivals - General agreement that the CTA will remain more or less unchanged after BREXIT. In particular free movement of EU citizens will be guaranteed within the CTA. source I find the last one rather interesting because it more or less means that taking back border control just got tossed out the window! If it remains as it is today then Irish immigration officers will still be responsible for regulating entry to the CTA. And as the ports of Cork, Rosslare and Waterford are expanded for direct export/import from France this may become a big issue.

	Quote:
	the British-Irish Common Travel Area would remain largely unchanged after Brexit, allowing EU citizens to travel – but not necessarily work – within both jurisdictions.

The part about travel but maybe not work may not be so good, especially for people who live near the border?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	amogles
	The EU is pretending to want a hard Brexit.

Says who?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Says who?

They are playing hardball & refusing to even discuss a trade deal at the moment. Thats sounds like they don't want a deal to me.

[amogles]

	Quote:
	Everyone and his dog is pretending it's going to be a hard Brexit.

as in, managing expectations?

Prepare people for the worst and then they'll be happy if it turns out better than that?

	Quote:	amogles
	as in, managing expectations? Prepare people for the worst and then they'll be happy if it turns out better than that?

I was thinking more "saving face" with the voters but you said it better. I think the Brexit they sold for the referendum is probably off the table and Downing St is trying to prepare for the shit-storm of those voters who think they've been short-changed in the run up to March 2019.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	amogles
	The PM posiibly wants a hard Brexit. The EU is pretending to want a hard Brexit. We'll find out what they really want after the German election. But let's assume they stay consistent. So at least looking at the stars the way they are aligned now, everybody wants a hard Brexit but the negotiations seem to be about a soft Brexit. Why?

Damage control.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	The part about travel but maybe not work may not be so good, especially for people who live near the border?

Ah yes but that is where the Ireland Act 1949 comes in... Irish people are not considered foreigners for most U.K. legislation and pretty much all NI citizens can pop into their local post office and apply for an Irish passport (as Ian Paisley recommended to his voters ).

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	They are playing hardball & refusing to even discuss a trade deal at the moment. Thats sounds like they don't want a deal to me.

They don't have the mandate to open trade talks. The council of ministers will decide in October if such talks can begin, but at least three states have indicated they will veto such an idea and the parliament have indicated the same.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	The EU is pretending to want a hard Brexit. We'll find out what they really want after the German election. But let's assume they stay consistent.

The EU negotiators are simply applying A50 and the strategy agreed by the council of ministers and they will continue to do that regardless of the outcome of the German elections because like every other state Germany has only one vote. Furthermore any agreement reached must be approved by the Parliament, where the Germany government has even less influence!

But if it helps you keep your fantasy going for a little longer...

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	They don't have the mandate to open trade talks. The council of ministers will decide in October if such talks can begin, but at least three states have indicated they will veto such an idea and the parliament have indicated the same.

and in what way is that not playing tough, or pursuing a hard Brexit?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	They are playing hardball & refusing to even discuss a trade deal at the moment. Thats sounds like they don't want a deal to me.

First things first. Before trade talks can begin the EU requires "sufficient progress" on the assets and liabilities that are to be paid for. I guess that's a general agreement on assets and liabilities that are to be considered.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	First things first. Before trade talks can begin the EU requires "sufficient progress" on the assets and liabilities that are to be paid for. I guess that's a general agreement on assets and liabilities that are to be considered.

The EU has not produced audited accounts, the calculation can never be done with any accuracy, so it would seem a time wasting condition.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The EU has not produced audited accounts, the calculation can never be done with any accuracy, so it would seem a time wasting condition.

Which government or supranational entity has its books audited? I'm not saying they don't, I'm just not aware of any.
You don't need to know the variables' values precisely to agree on a formula.

But the talks aren't at that point yet anyway. While Davis confirmed "the UK will meet its obligations" the two parties have yet to agree upon what they consist of in sufficient detail. Bulletpoints if you will.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	and in what way is that not playing tough, or pursuing a hard Brexit?

All they are doing is required the U.K. to abide by their comments and the talks schedule as agreed by Davis and friends. The U.K. are the ones leaving it is up to them to decide how hard they want it to be. Continue the current nonsense and they will crash out with nothing, start to deal with the issues as agreed and a trade may happen...

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The EU has not produced audited accounts, the calculation can never be done with any accuracy, so it would seem a time wasting condition.

EU has been producing audited accounts for years - but you already know that.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The EU has not produced audited accounts, the calculation can never be done with any accuracy, so it would seem a time wasting condition.

False:

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-36276175

Proper debunked Pro-Brexit myth.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Which government or supranational entity has its books audited? I'm not saying they don't, I'm just not aware of any.

Which is why secessions and indepenedence movements are generally so ugly, or at least that is one contributory reason. Just imagine, for example, what Catalonia may have to deal with if independence can go through. Or Scotland ... Corsica ... Britanny ... Wales .... Bavaria ....Transylvania ...

But then there is always the question of goodwill. You can say, lets agree in principle first and will thrash out the details later, or you can use details as an excuse to block everything, or even as a tool to extract revenge.

I much prefer the Spanish position on this. Just be honest and say no rather than pretending to offer terms that you know are just going through the motions of having a fair discourse.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	amogles
	But then there is always the question of goodwill. You can say, lets agree in principle first and will thrash out the details later, or you can use details as an excuse to block everything, or even as a tool to extract revenge.

What does UK government consider its obligations to be paid to the EU? What general points, e.g. PM pensions, are on that list?