The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:
	I call BS on that. There is zero evidence "the voters" wouldn't accept such a deal - 48% clearly would as they voted remain and a certain unknown fraction of the 52% Brexits probably would accept a EEA or Swiss type deal. As for May, remember the majority of her own party is pro Remain.

48% clearly would be happy sending large contributions to an organisation of which they're not a member of. Right.

The bottom line is that this would be a massive U-turn by a PM, who thanks to a catastrophic election has very little room for error, and if she were to make it then she'd be toast.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	I call BS on that. There is zero evidence "the voters" wouldn't accept such a deal - 48% clearly would as they voted remain [...]

That's completely unclear as well. After the vote many Remain voters said that, since the vote decided on Leave, Brexit is what should happen. So even if there was a full second vote some(many?) Leave Remain voters may change sides due to that view alone. Add those who voted Leave but changed their mind and the outcome of a full second vote would probably be completely open.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	That's completely unclear as well. After the vote many Remain voters said that, since the vote decided on Leave, Brexit is what should happen. So even if there was a full second vote it's far from clear what the outcome would be.

Exactly. Less than 25% of the people eligible to vote, voted leave. With all the furore over the last year, anything would be possible if the vote was rerun.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The bottom line is that this would be a massive U-turn by a PM, who thanks to a catastrophic election has very little room for error, and if she were to make it then she'd be toast.

Can't count how many times I've heard that she'll be toast by the end of this week...same as last week.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Like a house?

Yes because the prices are too high, it will end in tears within 5 years as tax changes bankrupt many highly leveraged landlords.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	That's completely unclear as well. After the vote many Remain voters said that, since the vote decided on Leave, Brexit is what should happen. So even if there was a full second vote some(many?) Leave voters may change sides due to that view alone. Add those who voted Leave but changed their mind and the outcome of a full second vote would probably be completely open.

It would be an interesting exercise to hold the referendum again, even hypothetically. There has been more unfiltered and unbiased information in the year or so SINCE the vote than BEFORE it. Both sides have been forced to concede that much of their campaigns were based on a "win at all costs" approach to the truth, and many of the campaigns' chief antagonists spouting the BS have melted into the background (with the exception of the perennially unflushable Boris).

The more you hear people talk about the changes they want post-Brexit, the more it sounds like it would have been better to simply overhaul the EU rather than leave it. Even the most ardent leave voters are adamant that trade deals and movement of people are important things to keep.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Exactly. Less than 25% of the people eligible to vote, voted leave. With all the furore over the last year, anything would be possible if the vote was rerun.

IIRC turnout was around 3/4. But anyway, that's an additional point as turnout may well be even higher still.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Exactly. Less than 25% of the people eligible to vote, voted leave. .

More than 1,000,000 more votes to leave rather than stay, your percentage has to be wrong if your talking about eligible voters rather than people with a heart beat.

Anyone interested in reading Boris' chest thumping vision for Brexit that has caused all the headlines this week can do so below.

Boris Johnson: My vision for a bold, thriving Britain enabled by Brexit

[pdofr]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	That's completely unclear as well. After the vote many Remain voters said that, since the vote decided on Leave, Brexit is what should happen.

On the other hand, in the days immediately following the vote, there were quite a few interviews with folks who claimed their vote for "Leave" was a protest vote. These were people who felt disenfranchised with the system, didn't think their vote would make any difference, and were greatly surprised when it did.

Food for thought...

Ooof.

https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/...89470609969152

[porsch1909]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Ooof. https://twitter.com/bbcquestiontime/...89470609969152

I've been doing my homework on Quantum Physics for 10 years now. Still don't have a scooby what it's all about.

The video is basically a well spoken women making no point and calling remainers moaners. #APPLAUSE

[marton]

	Quote:
	I call BS on that. There is zero evidence "the voters" wouldn't accept such a deal - 48% clearly would as they voted remain and a certain unknown fraction of the 52% Brexits probably would accept a EEA or Swiss type deal. As for May, remember the majority of her own party is pro Remain.

Basic problem is that May has a very very slim majority so whatever she offers the EU as a deal they will have doubts that she will be able to deliver it because her MPs have so many different views !

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	The more you hear people talk about the changes they want post-Brexit, the more it sounds like it would have been better to simply overhaul the EU rather than leave it. Even the most ardent leave voters are adamant that trade deals and movement of people are important things to keep.

The EU will be overhauled in the next decade, but it will not be in the way the UK wants, so that it pointless.

The European Fiscal Compact is the first step towards a more integrated economy with a finance minister etc on the way. There is the EU Army, the move a way from nation constituencies for EU parliamentary elections etc... Do you see the UK signing up for that?

As for FMOP, the problem there are entirely of the UK's own making. The failed to apply the EU directive rules, they could have curtailed the third country immigration etc.. but they did not.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	pdofr
	On the other hand, in the days immediately following the vote, there were quite a few interviews with folks who claimed their vote for "Leave" was a protest vote. These were people who felt disenfranchised with the system, didn't think their vote would make any difference, and were greatly surprised when it did.

Sure. Even though that was then while this is now and you don't know if they've changed their mind again.

What it eventually means is, nobody knows how the result would be today or tomorrow. The Leave margin is thin enough to be reverted any time, but it might just as well increase.

[Sbrinz]

If you are still interested in what anyone says about Brexit, Mrs May has made the speech in Florence, Italy,

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41355642

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-41359581

EU negotiator Mr Barnier is expected to release a written statement on Mrs May's speech later.....

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	If you are still interested in what anyone says about Brexit, Mrs May has made the speech in Florence, Italy, http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-41355642 http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-politics-41359581 EU negotiator Mr Barnier is expected to release a written statement on Mrs May's speech later.....

So TM rounds up some of her senior cabinet members (probably not a good idea to leave them home alone) and heads to Florence to give a speech to no one in particular, repeats most of the same stuff and this is going to make a difference.... if she wanted to be taken seriously she should have accepted the invitation to address the EU parliament and made her speech there, but of course it was for the home crowd in any case.

Well we'll see on Monday if they follow through on it, but they will still have to address the three issues set out in the exit agreement if progress is to be make. Although it does seem that a little bit of reality is starting to set in.

I must say there is a certain amount of irony in picking what at one stage used to be the center of finance and trade in Europe as a venue for this speech - hints of what is to come???

[pdofr]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	I must say there is a certain amount of irony in picking what at one stage used to be the center of finance and trade in Europe as a venue for this speech - hints of what is to come???

Good catch and irony indeed.

Not to mention that the Medicis gave us the double entry book keeping system, which was a huge leap forward in our financial system.

[pdofr]

Pressure group calls on May to guarantee citizens' rights after Brexit

	Quote:
	Campaigners for EU citizens have written to Theresa May demanding a lifetime guarantee of existing rights after Brexit to “break the deadlock” in talks. In a strongly worded letter, British in Europe warns May that if she jeopardises the rights of British nationals settled in the bloc, negotiations will hit the buffers. “If Michel Barnier, the European parliament and the EU27 member states see that the UK government is willing to throw us, our rights, our livelihoods and our children under the Brexit bus, they will have no confidence that it will recognise and protect the rights of the 3 million or any other post-Brexit obligations in the future,” the campaign group, which represents 11 citizens groups across the EU, said. They urge the prime minister to “stop treating citizens’ rights as a minor issue “that can be pushed aside in the headlong dash for a trade or indeed a security agreement” and plead with her to end the “platitudes” about their contribution to nationali life. In reference to the UK’s offer, they also implore her to “please stop treating citizens’ rights as an immigration issue”.

Well, 'tis a weekend and my thoughts turned to what would happen if I were forcibly repatriated...

Unless financially bribed, kicking up a major fuss would be pretty high on the list.

As I said, 'tis the weekend, so let's take a humorous look. What, after all, would Uncle Bertrand do?

"Civil unrest and insurrection" just popped into my mind.

Merriam Webster: Synonym Discussion of insurrection

rebellion, revolution, uprising, revolt, insurrection, mutiny mean an outbreak against authority.

• rebellion implies an open formidable resistance that is often unsuccessful.
• revolution applies to a successful rebellion resulting in a major change (as in government).
• uprising implies a brief, limited, and often immediately ineffective rebellion.
• revolt and insurrection imply an armed uprising that quickly fails or succeeds.

Doubtful outcomes or implied failure aren't Uncle Bertand's style, so revolution it would have to be, then

[Blueangel]

Moodys have downgraded the UK's credit rating again...

	Quote:
	Moody's downgrades UK's credit rating due to spending and Brexit fears Concerns are raised by Moody's over Brexit and the outlook for government spending, particularly on health and public sector pay.

http://news.sky.com/story/moodys-dow...fears-11048793