The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Well at the rate they are going, Trump need not concern himself with it. Without an agreement with the EU, they are not going to even get past the little problem of full membership.

Washington has teamed up with Brazil, Argentina, Canada, New Zealand, Uruguay and Thailand to reject Britain’s proposed import arrangements for crucial agricultural goods such as meat, sugar and grains after Brexit.

The fact that the U.K.’s opponents include the U.S., Canada and New Zealand is a significant setback because Britain is trying to style its former colonies as natural strategic and commercial allies after it has quit the EU.

Source

I doubt our Govt. could organise a pi## up in a brewery.
It seems our Brexit negotiators did not sound out our "natural strategic and commercial allies" before announcing the proposed import arrangements after Brexit.

Usually all that stuff is organised in quiet back rooms redolent with cigar smoke and vintage port aromas before going public!

Edit - thinking about it, to get such a large and varied group together to agree a common strategy there must have been secret discussions going on for some time? Does not augur well for the future!

[pdofr]

	Quote:	marton
	I doubt our Govt. could organise a pi## up in a brewery.

I have been reluctant to say it, but I've been thinking that for quite a while now.

	Quote:	marton
	It seems our Brexit negotiators did not sound out our "natural strategic and commercial allies" before announcing the proposed import arrangements after Brexit. Usually all that stuff is organised in quiet back rooms redolent with cigar smoke and vintage port aromas before going public!

A story from a trade union shop steward I knew many years ago.

In wage negotiations, the trade union would ask for, say, a 7.5% pay rise, and management would respond with "2.5% and not a penny more". The atmosphere across the negotiating table would be totally confrontational.

What would then happen would be a private word between 2 individuals during a coffee break where it would go:

"How's the wife and kids?"
"Fine thanks, how are yours?"
...
Management: "What are you really after?"
Union: "We thought 5% reasonable"
Management: "We were thinking of 4.5%"
Union: "Split the difference? 4.75%?"
Management: "Yes"

	Quote:	marton
	Edit - thinking about it, to get such a large and varied group together to agree a common strategy there must have been secret discussions going on for some time? Does not augur well for the future!

That's a fair assessment.

[marton]

	Quote:	pdofr
	I have been reluctant to say it, but I've been thinking that for quite a while now. A story from a trade union shop steward I knew many years ago. In wage negotiations, the trade union would ask for, say, a 7.5% pay rise, and management would respond with "2.5% and not a penny more". The atmosphere across the negotiating table would be totally confrontational. What would then happen would be a private word between 2 individuals during a coffee break where it would go: "How's the wife and kids?" "Fine thanks, how are yours?" ... Management: "What are you really after?" Union: "We thought 5% reasonable" Management: "We were thinking of 4.5%" Union: "Split the difference? 4.75%?" Management: "Yes" That's a fair assessment.

As a sort of side comment, if Boris was a well connected Foreign Secretary then someone would have given him a tip about these secret discussions?
For the conspiracy enthusiasts, maybe someone did tell him

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	pdofr
	I have been reluctant to say it, but I've been thinking that for quite a while now. A story from a trade union shop steward I knew many years ago. In wage negotiations, the trade union would ask for, say, a 7.5% pay rise, and management would respond with "2.5% and not a penny more". The atmosphere across the negotiating table would be totally confrontational. What would then happen would be a private word between 2 individuals during a coffee break where it would go: "How's the wife and kids?" "Fine thanks, how are yours?" ... Management: "What are you really after?" Union: "We thought 5% reasonable" Management: "We were thinking of 4.5%" Union: "Split the difference? 4.75%?" Management: "Yes" That's a fair assessment.

Your missing the point, they dont want an agreement, however playing along makes people happy, you think they are stupid, they know exactly what they are doing.

Nobody voted for a soft BREXIT, it's not anybodies 1st choice so best avoided at all costs.

[k_and_e]

I posted the same on page 217

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Your missing the point, they dont want an agreement, however playing along makes people happy, you think they are stupid, they know exactly what they are doing. Nobody voted for a soft BREXIT, it's not anybodies 1st choice so best avoided at all costs.

There was no choice of hard, soft, or pink with green stripes Brexit when it came to the vote, though. The choice was; "Remain a member of the EU" or "Leave the EU".

In practical terms, anybody voting to leave didn't really know what they were voting for. There was no clear plan, no structure, basically a load of old pony which was light on facts and heavy on flannel.

There was never a catalogue of "choices".

[amogles]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	There was no choice of hard, soft, or pink with green stripes Brexit when it came to the vote, though. The choice was; "Remain a member of the EU" or "Leave the EU". In practical terms, anybody voting to leave didn't really know what they were voting for. There was no clear plan, no structure, basically a load of old pony which was light on facts and heavy on flannel. There was never a catalogue of "choices".

But neither did remainers know what they were voting for. No guarantee was being offered that the EU as it was in 2016 was going to remain exactly like that.

Voters were asked to chose between two unknowns.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	amogles
	But neither did remainers know what they were voting for. No guarantee was being offered that the EU as it was in 2016 was going to remain exactly like that. Voters were asked to chose between two unknowns.

Well, precisely. It's just that FMF was specifically mentioning Brexit as though there was a kaleidoscope of choice in leave variables. As far as the ballot paper showed, it was simply a choice of Remain or Leave.

How the government would then tackle it was totally unknown and therefore an unquantifiable and unpredictable outcome. And here we are...

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	There was no choice of hard, soft, or pink with green stripes Brexit when it came to the vote, though. The choice was; "Remain a member of the EU" or "Leave the EU". .

Leave clearly assumed hard BREXIT, they wanted the money for the NHS clearly they did not wish to pay money to the EU any more.

It was a very simple question Leave or Stay, no grey area at all. Leave won the majority of votes by more than 1,000,000

[StirB]

	Quote:	amogles
	But neither did remainers know what they were voting for. No guarantee was being offered that the EU as it was in 2016 was going to remain exactly like that. Voters were asked to chose between two unknowns.

Seriously? Come on.

That is the cringiest bit of straw-clutchery I've heard in a long while.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	amogles
	But neither did remainers know what they were voting for. No guarantee was being offered that the EU as it was in 2016 was going to remain exactly like that. Voters were asked to chose between two unknowns.

I specifically voted to preserve certain freedoms that myself, my EU passport holding partner, and our close family members had within the EU. It was a very clear cut decision right from the outset.

Grexit was the first referendum that threatened our position, but because we were there prior to, and during the referendum, we were pretty sure it wouldn't happen. When it came to the Brexit referendum, we'd already been through all the whys and wherefores less than a year earlier. It was groundhog day for us.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Leave clearly assumed hard BREXIT, they wanted the money for the NHS clearly they did not wish to pay money to the EU any more. It was a very simple question Leave or Stay, no grey area at all. Leave won the majority of votes by more than 1,000,000

ASSUMED. Boom - politics of today. Well, that and writing your manifest on a bus...

[marton]

Wall Street moves to Frankfurt as Brexit doubts grow

Source

US banks seem to be picking up the pace

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Wall Street moves to Frankfurt as Brexit doubts grow Source US banks seem to be picking up the pace

Wall Street? Isn't that in the US? Why should something moving from the USA to Germany have anything to do with Brexit?

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	amogles
	Wall Street? Isn't that in the US? Why should something moving from the USA to Germany have anything to do with Brexit?

I understood it that those classic Wall Street banks who currently have their European operations in the UK are strengthening their presence in Frankfurt in anticipation that Brexit makes London less attractive? Just a guess.

They wouldn't really be acting in the character of banks if they weren't planning for the worst and hoping for the best, right?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	Wall Street? Isn't that in the US? Why should something moving from the USA to Germany have anything to do with Brexit?

Keep your fingers in your ears and sing: la-la-la....

Mean while in the real world where business plans for BREXIT: NY -> Gateway to USA & Americas, Singapore -> Gateway to Asia, Frankfurt (now) -> Gateway to Europe.. London -> Gateway to no where.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	No guarantee was being offered that the EU as it was in 2016 was going to remain exactly like that.

Nonsense, it was and is absolutely clear the the EU has no intention of staying as it is. One only has to read the treaties etc.. that the member states have signed up to know that.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Nonsense, it was and is absolutely clear the the EU has no intention of staying as it is. One only has to read the treaties etc.. that the member states have signed up to know that.

my point exactly

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	amogles
	But neither did remainers know what they were voting for. No guarantee was being offered that the EU as it was in 2016 was going to remain exactly like that. Voters were asked to chose between two unknowns.

Obviously the EU won't be the same in 10 or 20 years, that applies to every person and every organisation, no exceptions. However the framework it will work in is clear and change will be gradual, giving participants time to adapt.

With Brexit however just about everything about the future is unclear and change will happen in a very short time, perhaps from one moment to the next. This is like jumping off a cliff. That, plus of course continued access to EEA, is the reason why MNC's are relocating operations.

[22 yards]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	London -> Gateway to no where.

Wales. I'd definitely consider London if I had to visit Wales. Oh, and Cornwall.