The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Dougal's Breakfast]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Nonsense, it was and is absolutely clear the the EU has no intention of staying as it is. One only has to read the treaties etc.. that the member states have signed up to know that.

Which is exactly what I did - and which is exactly the reason why I voted Leave.

And to this day, everybody seems to think I was persuaded by a bloody bus.

[StirB]

Did people here who actually voted vote for:

a) What was best for them personally
b) What was best for Britain
c) both, honest.

Genuinely interested.

[Dougal's Breakfast]

	Quote:	StirB
	Did people here who actually voted vote for: a) What was best for them personally b) What was best for Britain c) both, honest. Genuinely interested.

d) principle

I doubt that being a citizen of a united European nation would have much impact on me, personally - but that still doesn't mean I support the project. In fact, I am utterly opposed to it.

The funny thing is that I was pretty much on the fence until I started reading the EU's own material on the subject. I would have probably voted Remain had I not bothered to read it!

[Reb77Br]

The Atlantic: A Harsh Wake-Up Call for Some Brexiteers

“There’s no point in vilifying Bregretters,” Mike Galsworthy, a scientist who founded the prominent anti-Brexit groups Scientists for EU and Healthier in the EU, told me. “Bregretters do have to accept some responsibility for this mess we’re now in, but blame also clearly lies both with Cameron for calling a referendum in the first place, and the 40-year dominance of euroskeptic media”"

Scientists for EU: who we are
SfEU: funding
+ YouTube, Facebook, Twitter

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	StirB
	a) What was best for them personally b) What was best for Britain c) both, honest.

Hand on heart, c.

Personally, we've benefitted financially from the drop in the value of Sterling, and my partner proposed when the referendum result was announced (which I declined). Absolutely nothing has changed my mind, and I would vote Remain again.

[marton]

Sounds familiar?

	Quote:
	A trickle of companies fleeing the restive Spanish region of Catalonia threatened to turn into a flood as a second major bank and two more firms said they would move their head offices to other parts of the country. CaixaBank (CAIXY), energy supplier Gas Natural Fenosa and Dogi International Fabrics said Friday they were moving their legal bases from Catalonia's capital, Barcelona. On Thursday, Banco Sabadell confirmed that it would move its legal base from Barcelona to Alicante. And earlier this week, biotech firm Oryzon Genomics said it was moving from Barcelona to Madrid If Catalonia succeeds in breaking away, it's likely to find itself shut out of the European Union. Catalan firms would face the prospect of operating in a newly independent state with no formal trade agreements, a situation even more serious than Brexit.

Source

[curley]

	Quote:	shooterMcgavin
	Brexit

Two more one-word-posts and you're in the sales-departement.

[Sbrinz]

If one takes a cool sensible approach:

To belong to the EU costs Britain about 5% of GDP, and for that small subscription the UK has free access to a market of 510 million citizens.

To leave the EU would save the 5% but would require; a strong customs and immigration control. An enlarged security budget. A new safety team for testing everything imported. An enormous sales effort to recover the lost markets.

I cannot imagine any country in the world feeling sorry for the UK, and agreeing to trade deals, to help the UK export it's products. The US has shown no inclination, and China and India are waiting to export their products in greater amounts. What hope is there for the UK, alone in the big bad world?

[marton]

Theresa May is under pressure to publish secret legal advice that is believed to state that parliament could still stop Brexit before the end of March 2019 if MPs judge that a change of mind is in the national interest. The move comes as concern grows that exit talks with Brussels are heading for disaster.

The prominent lawyer Jessica Simor QC, from Matrix chambers, has written to May asking her to release the legal advice under the Freedom of Information Act. Simor says she has been told by “two good sources” that the prime minister has been advised “that the article 50 notification can be withdrawn by the UK at any time before 29 March 2019 resulting in the UK remaining in the EU on its current favourable terms.

“Such advice would also accord with the view of Lord Kerr, who was involved in drafting article 50, of Jean-Claude Piris, former director general of the EU council’s legal service, and of Martin Selmayr, a lawyer and head of cabinet to the European commission president.” She says “there is no time to waste” and adds: “It is important that this advice is made available to the British public and their representatives in parliament as soon as possible.”

There is also growing anger over the government’s continuing refusal to publish studies it is conducting on the impact that Brexit will have on different sectors of the economy.

Source

The circus continues.....

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	The circus continues.....

And we can forget any trade deals based upon the 'special relationship'.

	Quote:
	The US Department of Commerce has again ruled against aerospace firm Bombardier in its dispute with rival Boeing. A further tariff of 80% has been imposed on the import of Bombardier's C-Series jet to the US for alleged below-cost selling. This is on top of an earlier tariff of 220% which related to subsidies Bombardier got from Canada and the UK.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-41532309

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	And we can forget any trade deals based upon the 'special relationship'. http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-41532309

Might be related to the EU complaint to the WTO about unfair subsidies to Boeing which has been limping along for years

Source

	Quote:	marton
	So much for UK/US special relationship and Brexit hopes! Trump opposes EU-UK WTO deal in blow to Brexit plans!! This was the idea for the UK to "piggy back" on the EU WTO deal instead of UK spending years negotiating a new UK WTO deal!! Wonder how Loz will find a silver lining to this cloud

Post Brexit UK shouldn't even be trying to "piggy back" on to the EU's deal. The aim should be to negotiate new deals whilst removing any restrictions.

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	The Atlantic: A Harsh Wake-Up Call for Some Brexiteers “There’s no point in vilifying Bregretters,” Mike Galsworthy, a scientist who founded the prominent anti-Brexit groups Scientists for EU and Healthier in the EU, told me. “Bregretters do have to accept some responsibility for this mess we’re now in, but blame also clearly lies both with Cameron for calling a referendum in the first place, and the 40-year dominance of euroskeptic media”" Scientists for EU: who we are SfEU: funding + YouTube, Facebook, Twitter

If only there was such a thing as a “Bregretter"...

As this rolls on, I expect to hear more and more individual EU member states echoing Denmark. The problem is, the EU doesn't do what's best for it's members, only what's best for the EU.

Brexit: stop the 'games' over the bill and get on with EU deal, says Denmark

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	To belong to the EU costs Britain about 5% of GDP, and for that small subscription the UK has free access to a market of 510 million citizens.

Source?

The UK has an annual GDP of a bit less than £2000bln, 5% of that would be £100bln (ballpark numbers).

Where on dog's good earth does that money go? Now, if it were 0.5% instead, or £10bln, that's more in line with what's usually said.

[StirB]

Surely your chart conclusively shows that Brexit shouldn't occur? More people now think it is a bad idea, and we know that even 1% more is conclusive, that's what Brexiteers have been telling us about the validity of the referendum.

STOP THIS MADNESS NOW!!11! DEMOCRACY!

[StirB]

I thought we'd established that we send the EU £350m a week, therefore £18bn a year, which is much closer to the 0.5% than the 5% mark.

[Urs Max]

Except that, I think, the £18bln is pre-UK-rebate and doesn't consider payments to the UK by the EU.

[pdofr]

	Quote:	marton
	Might be related to the EU complaint to the WTO about unfair subsidies to Boeing which has been limping along for years Source

The United States of Subsidies

	Quote:
	In late 2013, Washington state made history. On a mid-November Monday, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (D) signed into law the largest corporate tax break in any state’s history, with an estimated lifetime value of $8.7 billion. The package was the result of a special three-day session Inslee called in order to entice Boeing to build its 777X plane in the state. Boeing didn’t just score big that day. The aerospace giant has received more state and local subsidy dollars than any other corporation in America, according to newly released data compiled by Good Jobs First, a policy resource center on subsidy data. The state subsidy data was released Tuesday in conjunction with similar federal data and a matching report—”Uncle Sam’s Favorite Corporations”—which reviews the grants, loans and other subsidies distributed by the federal government since 2000. Over the course of those 15 years, the federal government has distributed $68 billion in grants and special tax credits to businesses, with two thirds of that transferred to large corporations. Six companies have received $1 billion or more, while 21 have received $500 million or more.

and

	Quote:
	Some big corporations are also big double- and triple-dippers in federal and state funds. Five corporations have achieved a trifecta, ranking among the 50 largest recipients of three kinds of funds: state subsidies; federal grants and tax credits; and federal loans, loan guarantees and bailout assistance. Those businesses, which Good Jobs First defines as the “most successful at obtaining subsidies from all levels of government” are Boeing, Ford Motor, General Electric, General Motors and JPMorgan Chase.

[baboon]

I suspect he has misread ‰ as %. 5‰ (or 0.5% if you prefer) is roughly right