The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

Poll by @SkyData suggests 74% of people think no Brexit deal is better than a bad deal while 26% think any deal would be better than no deal.

So either something will be struck at the 11th hour (as always seems to be the case with the EU) or it'll be no deal.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Poll by @SkyData suggests 74% of people think no Brexit deal is better than a bad deal while 26% think any deal would be better than no deal. So either something will be struck at the 11th hour (as always seems to be the case with the EU) or it'll be no deal.

It is going to be a no deal situation, there is no face saving option for the UK side and as the UK will be a third country, there is no pressure on the EU do patch things up among themselves as the normally do.

The big question is what it takes for them to realise that no deal is the worst deal possible and how do they go about getting back in the room. It is going to be very hard to get any trade deals signed if the major block in the WTO are objecting... no country is going to want to start a trade war with one or more of the big blocks for the sake of the UK, but that could take years to sink in.

Perhaps as Hammond mentioned yesterday the no flights issue or needing to apply for visas to visit mainland Europe....

Perhaps even social unrest as the very people that supported BREXIT start to feel that are not going to get what was promised and take to the streets.

Either which way it is going to be bad news for everyone.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Perhaps as Hammond mentioned yesterday the no flights issue or needing to apply for visas to visit mainland Europe.... Perhaps even social unrest as the very people that supported BREXIT start to feel that are not going to get what was promised and take to the streets. Either which way it is going to be bad news for everyone.

Precisely.

I do believe that this government are in a no win situation at present. I do believe that social unrest from Brexit suporters in a few years time is a distinct possibility. I've never come across a winning contingent that were more vociferous, obnoxious, threatening and downright paranoid about their victory.

Brexiteers are claiming today that the 'no flights' scenario can't happen. Oh yes it can! Very, very easily. I would hope it to be short lived if it does happen, but it is a very distinct possibility because the government has repeatedly refused to even begin to address the issue of the Open Skies policy. They should have been on that from day 1, along with passporting in the financial sector. Tourism, transport, imports, exports, finance all totally shafted by this oversight! In fact...if you want to make a quick profit, but flexible ferry and Eurotunnel tickets for March 30 & 31 2019 where you can do name changes. Worth a punt

How blind do people have to be to not recognise the distinctly possible impacts of this...?

	Quote:
	But stalled Brexit negotiations and the singling out of the UK on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as the only major economy not to see its growth forecast upgraded, has led to what Chancellor Philip Hammond has called a “cloud of uncertainty” hanging over the country.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entr...b00abf36465a1c

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Yes, and I am also going to learn the mandolin. Not saying how long it will take, how much it will cost, what I'll do with my new-found skill or even when I'll start. Plus I might be absolutely useless at it. But everyone knows I'm going to learn the mandolin.

Better example would be giving up the mandolin after over 30 years of trying to learn as you never improved & got what you expected out of it

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Poll by @SkyData suggests 74% of people think no Brexit deal is better than a bad deal while 26% think any deal would be better than no deal. So either something will be struck at the 11th hour (as always seems to be the case with the EU) or it'll be no deal.

Useless poll, pure clickbait generating. Without even giving an example what "bad" may look like, everybody will have their own unique definition. Ask 2000 people and you get 3000 different definitions.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Pound Slides as EU's Barnier Says Brexit Talks at ‘Deadlock’

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ks-at-deadlock

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Precisely. I do believe that this government are in a no win situation at present. I do believe that social unrest from Brexit suporters in a few years time is a distinct possibility. I've never come across a winning contingent that were more vociferous, obnoxious, threatening and downright paranoid about their victory. Brexiteers are claiming today that the 'no flights' scenario can't happen. Oh yes it can! Very, very easily. I would hope it to be short lived if it does happen, but it is a very distinct possibility because the government has repeatedly refused to even begin to address the issue of the Open Skies policy. They should have been on that from day 1, along with passporting in the financial sector. Tourism, transport, imports, exports, finance all totally shafted by this oversight! In fact...if you want to make a quick profit, but flexible ferry and Eurotunnel tickets for March 30 & 31 2019 where you can do name changes. Worth a punt How blind do people have to be to not recognise the distinctly possible impacts of this...? http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entr...b00abf36465a1c

The details of Brexit were never clearly stated so people had their own expectations and so will be disappointed if they are not delivered, a random selection of expectations which may or may not be delivered by Brexit;

• UK pensioners in the EU continue to have medical expenses paid and continue to benefit from UK pension increases
• UK workers in the EU see no negative changes in terms and conditions
• UK people continue to travel to Europe for pleasure and holidays with no increase in formalities or costs.
• UK cost of living stays the same or improved
• The NHS will benefit financially.
• UK workers see less competition for employment opportunities

	Quote:	marton
	The details of Brexit were never clearly stated so people had their own expectations and so will be disappointed if they are not delivered, a random selection of expectations which may or may not be delivered by Brexit; UK pensioners in the EU continue to have medical expenses paid and continue to benefit from UK pension increases UK workers in the EU see no negative changes in terms and conditions UK people continue to travel to Europe for pleasure and holidays with no increase in formalities or costs. UK cost of living stays the same or improved The NHS will benefit financially. UK workers see less competition for employment opportunities

• There will be fewer gypsies and swarthy people.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Pound Slides as EU's Barnier Says Brexit Talks at ‘Deadlock’ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ks-at-deadlock

#FakeNews

[marton]

The EU Withdrawal Bill had been scheduled for scrutiny by MPs next week, but has now been taken out of the parliamentary calendar because the Government faces defeat on more than a dozen hostile amendments.

Source1

Source2

The pound rallied in later trading after a leaked draft of the conclusions from next week’s European council meeting, revealed that the EU27 could be prepared to start laying the groundwork for the next phase of talks (trade deal) to begin at the end of the year.

I do not see how May can ever bring this mess to a conclusion when she has such a narrow majority

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	#FakeNews

So the £ didn't fall?

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Precisely. I do believe that this government are in a no win situation at present. I do believe that social unrest from Brexit suporters in a few years time is a distinct possibility. I've never come across a winning contingent that were more vociferous, obnoxious, threatening and downright paranoid about their victory. Brexiteers are claiming today that the 'no flights' scenario can't happen. Oh yes it can! Very, very easily. I would hope it to be short lived if it does happen, but it is a very distinct possibility because the government has repeatedly refused to even begin to address the issue of the Open Skies policy. They should have been on that from day 1, along with passporting in the financial sector. Tourism, transport, imports, exports, finance all totally shafted by this oversight! In fact...if you want to make a quick profit, but flexible ferry and Eurotunnel tickets for March 30 & 31 2019 where you can do name changes. Worth a punt How blind do people have to be to not recognise the distinctly possible impacts of this...? http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entr...b00abf36465a1c

I agree about some of the Brexiteers but exactly how many hard liners exist is a good question!

Let us not forget earlier this year "Theresa May calls for general election to secure Brexit mandate"
Her Brexit mandate was not secured, quite the opposite!
So how many people feel strongly about Brexit is open to question?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	#FakeNews

Loz, why do you keep setting yourself up? It's like shooting fish in a barrel.

The pound fell yesterday on reports of a deadlock in Brexit talks. That's what your graph shows. Later in the day, it rallied as other news came out. Blueangel's post at 14:08 CEST was accurate.

Clearly, you didn't bother to scroll down the Bloomberg link that Blueangel provided and read the follow-up report published at 19:13 CEST (nearly an hour before you posted your "#FakeNews" claim).

This may come as news to you, but currencies fluctuate on all sorts of news.

If I write "It's sunny and warm in Basel!", and three hours later a thunder storm rolls in, I suppose you'd claim my post was "#FakeNews", too.

Here's a graphic from the Bloomberg report to explain all this very clearly.

	Quote:
	Loz, why do you keep setting yourself up? It's like shooting fish in a barrel. The pound fell yesterday on reports of a deadlock in Brexit talks. That's what your graph shows. Later in the day, it rallied as other news came out. Blueangel's post at 14:08 CEST was accurate. Clearly, you didn't bother to scroll down the Bloomberg link that Blueangel provided and read the follow-up report published at 19:13 CEST (nearly an hour before you posted your "#FakeNews" claim). This may come as news to you, but currencies fluctuate on all sorts of news. If I write "It's sunny and warm in Basel!", and three hours later a thunder storm rolls in, I suppose you'd claim my post was "#FakeNews", too. Here's a graphic from the Bloomberg report to explain all this very clearly.

It's both misleading and sensationalist. Bloomberg are terrible for this. Making a crisis out of one day in Brexit, and note they haven't changed the headline.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's both misleading and sensationalist. Bloomberg are terrible for this. making a crisis out of one day in Brexit, and note they haven't changed the headline.

Dude, look at the BLOOMBERG chart. Two things happening close to each other doesn't mean one or the other of them didn't happen.

	Quote:
	Dude, look at the BLOOMBERG chart. Two things happening close to each other doesn't mean one or the other of them didn't happen.

Lets look at the last 6 months. This is puffery tabloid journalism, pure and simple.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's both misleading and sensationalist. Bloomberg are terrible for this. making a crisis out of one day in Brexit, and note they haven't changed the headline.

It's precise and exact. Here, let me help you a little more. The headline for the article published at 14:58 CEST was as Blueangel posted. The headline for the second article was almost the opposite of the first, about the pound surging.

Two articles, two different scenarios for the pound, two headlines.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Lets look at the last 6 months. This is puffery tabloid journalism, pure and simple.

Bloomberg is tabloid?

At this rate, Trump's only friend in the media is going to be Breitbart, and with friends like Bannon, who needs enemies?

Loz, the Bloomberg report was on a single event. They weren't reporting on the performance of the pound over the last half-year. Would you prefer that they report on the performance of all currencies since the beginning of time, next time they write about events in the market this morning?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Lets look at the last 6 months. This is puffery tabloid journalism, pure and simple.

That is puffery Loz posting, pure and simple.

As you seem to want to look at the long-term picture let's have a look at the past 2 years covering the whole Brexit period. And let's look at GBP:EUR as it is Europe we are talking about and the US has its own issues.


As you fully know, the other posts above are talking about an immediate impact.

	Quote:
	That is puffery Loz posting, pure and simple. As you seem to want to look at the long-term picture let's have a look at the past 2 years covering the whole Brexit period. And let's look at GBP:EUR as it is Europe we are talking about and the US has its own issues. As you fully know, the other posts above are talking about an immediate impact.

Let's have a look at the real long term picture then...

If you zoom in far enough you can make any point you want.