The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[MsWorWoo]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Yes, but it is not that straight forward! If the UK gives notice of it's intention to leave, it's got 18 months to negotiate any treaties it needs before it joins the queue of third countries seeking trade agreements. But the treaties must be negotiated with the EU as a whole and any member can veto such agreements. And given that the Eastern members will benefit very little from such arrangements it's a fair bet that one of them will use the veto. My guess is that the UK would get some kind of agreement, but they would have to contribute billions each year to the structural fund each year.

Indeed, look how we get treated at Eurovision, the rest of Europe do not think we are as important as we think we are. And they are probably correct.

Can anyone tell what special arrangements UK gained, or if these changes apply to all member's charters? There are contingency plans, but they all seem to be contingent on the EU agreeing. It looks like details are yet forthcoming, but the crux of it is that the UK wanted more control, but there is no sign of any real control conceded.

Cameron got a bunch of wooden nickels, and they made these announcements just for the sake of looking like they've made progress. I would put odds at this falling apart before this round gets off the ground. They will argue about the mechanism for activating them. Cameron will make it sound like it is at the UK's control, and the EU will not be willing to cede control.

Cameron is "putting lipstick on a pig" at this point. Few will be enthused by all this. Still a lot of details and sticking points to come out in the next two weeks. I seriously doubt they will wrap this up soon. Very easy to sabotage and derail, which is their forte and modus operandi.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The U.K. has not played a leading role in any of the EU crisis over the last 10 years or so, it has not made any significant contribution to the various bailouts and it's contribution to the annual budget is likely to be off set by the additional import tariffs it would have to pay after exiting. Yes the EU members would prefer the UK would remain in the Union, but the various leaders have made it clear that they are not willing to do it at all costs. And the Greek crisis last summer changed the mind set about seeing a member go.

The UK is one of the biggest contributors to the EU in terms of cash. Greece is on the other hand is one of the biggest costs. The two can't be compared. Countries like Germany do huge amounts of trade with the UK. It would be interest too to keep the ability to do this following brexit.

	Quote:	MsWorWoo
	Indeed, look how we get treated at Eurovision, the rest of Europe do not think we are as important as we think we are. And they are probably correct.

Lol, great comparison.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK is one of the biggest contributors to the EU in terms of cash. Greece is on the other hand is one of the biggest costs. The two can't be compared. Countries like Germany do huge amounts of trade with the UK. It would be interest too to keep the ability to do this following brexit. .

Well first of I was not comparing the UK to Greece, I was pointing out that the UK has been on the sideline of EU events for along time now and even it's financial contribution is not remotely as significant as the UK press would have you believe. The gross figures sound impressive, but when you take into account all the rebates etc it comes down to around 7b pa on average.

Now it is true that Germany, Ireland and other western members do benefit from trade with the U.K., but the trade agreements must be with the EU not the individual members. And there in lies the problem, there is not much in it for the eastern members, so to get their agreement you can expect that the UK will have to contribute to the structural fund and is going to be a lot more than 7b!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phos
	Very easy to sabotage and derail, which is their forte and modus operandi.

Yes it is very hard to see anything of substance coming out of this without a treaty change and that is something no one wants. Because in reality you'd have at a minimum the people of France, Denmark and Ireland voting on BREXIT! Imagine the situation if they voted no before the UK referendum!

At the same time anything temporary risks being challenged in the courts. Even if the member states agree terms, there is nothing stopping an EU citizen bringing a case that he is being denied his rights. And I doubt the argument that it is only temporary will fly.

https://www.facebook.com/26minutes/v...6407636133993/

those 2 are so funny- do practise your fran-glish

One option is missing from the poll:

I want the UK kicked out of the EU because they can't have their cake and eat it

[OSueco]

unfortunately (for now) the EU is the only thing keeping the history repeating itself...and that itself (like it or not it is worth a lot)...but it doesn't mean that it cannot improve (leaner, less bureaucratic) ...but most of the issues people have with EU are "white peoples problems..." especially in Switzerland... :roll eyes:

[Swissish]

	Quote:
	Happy to do some research- but in the meantime, does anyone here have the answers? How much is child benefit in the UK? How much in CH? Who pays if parent lives and works in CH and kids back in UK? Apparently there was quite a hoohaa in the UK some time ago, as it was publicised that people who work in Switzerland but have kids in the UK, would have to be paid child benefit, by reciprocal arrangement, by the UK tax payer at a much higher rate than locals, as CH CB is much higher. People were up in arms about this, as expats are considered (fairly most of the time) to have much higher salaries. Can't find a link to this effect though.

Are you referring to this article on child care benefit cuts?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...child-benefits

I also found these articles but they compare the UK benefits to other EU countries. Perhaps someone here knows the CH benefits?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...mergency-brake

One in nine 'EU migrant couples' on tax credits are actually half-British

[BLP]

before the EU expanded to semi 3rd world countries I thought it was a good idea. I like diversity to a point, going back to London now I feel an outsider. It's sad when the natives become the minority.

I wish the EU wouldn't have ever expanded, then I'd be pro EU but to be honest living abroad in the EU hasn't been easy either! But then they go to my country and it's simple, makes no sense!

[zurich99]

I have been reading this tread, and im still as confused about the issues as I was.

My head says stay but my heart says leave, I cant really rationalise it, its just a feeling.
I am trying to listen to views (in/out) but really it seems to me that people are guessing as to what would happen (economically) nobody has put forward a plan as to what we would do if we left.
Cant anyone put together an unbiased one, a best guess - if that's possible, or am I being naive about his?

I am just an 'ordinary person' i.e I am not overly knowledgeable about politics/ economics or even business matters.
The business/economics of this in/out debate is lost on me really.

What matters to me is the arrogance of the EU. Why is it so preposterous that the UK high court have the final say?
Why must the EU laws be the same in every member state? Surly we are all very different, the further East you go, culturally anyway.
I understand that each nation cant 'cherry pick' what they will or will not follow from Brussels, but I really feel that something along these lines needs to happen. I cant believe that its only the UK have have these issues with the EU, nobody likes be told what to do by unelected politicians especially those that are not living the ordinary life in that country. A one size fits all strategy really works??

Immigration, is a massive issue at the moment and seems to be a trigger for the discontent with the EU, but people were fed up and frustrated before.
Its the loss of control that the 'people' seem to be frustrated with.

Well thats whats bothering me and makes my heart want to leave, I want the UK to be in charge of its own destination, make our own mistakes. I also want to be a part of Europe, free movement, trade ect.
I dont want to be ruled by the EU and I m sure nor do many other countries and they are just P****d that the UK are making a fuss and will maybe get concessions and they wont.

Maybe that sounds like having the cake and eating it but thats just how I feel.

So now you can all go back to discussing all the important stuff, and ill just follow along and try and keep up!

[lewton]

@Zurich99, somebody posted an article about the next steps after a Brexit but I'm on the phone right now so too complicated to look for it.

	Quote:	zurich99
	I have been reading this tread, and im still as confused about the issues as I was. .... So now you can all go back to discussing all the important stuff, and ill just follow along and try and keep up!

What are the pros and cons of the EU? I'm sure different things would come to mind for different people. I'd like to hear where the EU has been a success. So far, looking at countries like Belgium, France, German, Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece, are there results here that are desirable for the UK?

I could think of a couple of conveniences; crossing borders easily, not having to exchange money,or maybe some bureaucratic expedience. Are these really worth endemic problems found in its member states?

Where is the beef? Show me the money! What is desirable about the EU? Are they really desirable for everybody? Get real now on whether or not the EU really deserves credit for it.

[Swissish]

The debate according to the Economist...

[Swissish]

Sorry about that, don't know how to resize the graphic but here is the link to the Economists Brexit In/Out graph posted previously.

[MsWorWoo]

	Quote:	Swissish
	Sorry about that, don't know how to resize the graphic but here is the link to the Economists Brexit In/Out graph posted previously.

Wow, we get nearly 9x paid out to the UK that we pay in. I knew it was more but didn't know it was THAT much more.

Amazing figures, aren't they!

I am totally surprised that 12.73 % on this poll have put down that they 'don't care' - surely all of us here will be affected one way or the other by the decision. I can totally agree to disagree- but I just don't get the 'I don't care'

[Phil_MCR]

i think one big advantage of not being in the EU could be by leaving the customs union and the UK could instead have a free trade zone with the EU and would be free to sign free trade deals with other important trading partners e.g. join NAFTA, strike a free trade deal with China, India etc.

[amogles]

A nice piece on the problems of the EU, Euroscepticism and immigration.

I don't fully agree with everything he says but it's a welcome break from all the black and white arguments we've been hearing and it contains are some nice discussion points.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/09/op...tion.html?_r=0

[hairybadger]

	Quote:
	I am totally surprised that 12.73 % on this poll have put down that they 'don't care' - surely all of us here will be affected one way or the other by the decision. I can totally agree to disagree- but I just don't get the 'I don't care'

Not everyone on the forum is British

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	hairybadger
	Not everyone on the forum is British

then what are they doing here on ENGLISHforum?