The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[amogles]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Depends on the objective. The primary reason for the US to enter the war appears to have been fear of communism and the Domino Theory. Since no additional countries in the region fell for communism it can be seen as a success even though it was a military loss. Just don't ask for proof of the theory.

Valid point.

By the same measure, the present wars against ISIL can be considered a success if the further spread of militant Islam can be stopped.

I woulodn't want to bet on that actually happening though.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Financial Settlement is the UK's trump card and won't be played until further down the line.

This is the biggest misunderstanding in the U.K.! It is not about the figure, which in reality is easily plugged. It is about the principle and establishing the precedent for any future exits.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Let's see how much the EU really cares about the rights of citizens and the Irish border.

IE/EU already on it, money being bumped in upgrading ports at Roscof, Roslare, Waterford and Cork, lines to hook up the Irish and French grids being worked on, surveys being conducted to establish 8 customs and immigration posts along the NI borders, new beef export deals signed with the US to replace the existing UK deals...

Someone is getting prepared for the worst and it is not the U.K.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Depends on the objective. Since no additional countries in the region fell for communism it can be seen as a success even though it was a military loss. Just don't ask for proof of the theory.

Well....Laos and Cambodia finally went "communist" in 1975 so you could argue that that is not the case.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Depends on the objective. Since no additional countries in the region fell for communism it can be seen as a success even though it was a military loss. Just don't ask for proof of the theory.

Sean Spicer, is that you?

	Quote:	Jim2007
	IE/EU already on it, money being bumped in upgrading ports at Roscof, Roslare, Waterford and Cork, lines to hook up the Irish and French grids being worked on, surveys being conducted to establish 8 customs and immigration posts along the NI borders, new beef export deals signed with the US to replace the existing UK deals...

How’s any of that going to help the 3 million EU citizens living in the UK, or help preserve the peace in Ireland?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	That's one of the reasons I don't think Brexit isn't going to happen. Nobody in power actually wants it.

Of course it will happen, simply because there is no alternative. The whole U.K. assumption that A50 can simply be revoked if the U.K. government changes it's mind is nonsense. There is no procedure on the EU side to accept it - who would have the authority to accept it? The council, the commission, the parliament, all three? And it is always open to the ECJ to hear a case on a treaty breach taken by a concerned citizen (UKIP member perhaps) to have the treaty terms enforced.

No BREXIT will have to go ahead even if it is to satisfy the technical requirements, the question is what happens after that.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Of course it will happen, simply because there is no alternative. The whole U.K. assumption that A50 can simply be revoked if the U.K. government changes it's mind is nonsense. There is no procedure on the EU side to accept it - who would have the authority to accept it? The council, the commission, the parliament, all three? And it is always open to the ECJ to hear a case on a treaty breach taken by a concerned citizen (UKIP member perhaps) to have the treaty terms enforced. No BREXIT will have to go ahead even if it is to satisfy the technical requirements, the question is what happens after that.

Probably a box ticking exercise. Not formally a member but having virtually all the trappings of full membership, minus maybe two or three points of lesser significance so that they can claim its not really membership at all.

I'm not convinced personally, but if they want a face saving way out of the problem, it will probably be something like this.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	How’s any of that going to help the 3 million EU citizens living in the UK, or help preserve the peace in Ireland?

In the even of the U.K. walking away there is not much that can be done beyond this.. And peace is not nearly as fragile as many republicans would have you believe. They know very well the days of the rifle and the ballot box is gone, I have not heard of a young fella signing up in years nor a training camp etc..

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	amogles
	Probably a box ticking exercise. Not formally a member but having virtually all the trappings of full membership, minus maybe two or three points of lesser significance so that they can claim its not really membership at all. I'm not convinced personally, but if they want a face saving way out of the problem, it will probably be something like this.

And how exactly would this get approved? There is no provision for anything like this short of a treaty change. That is the problem with all of these kind of hairy fairy solutions, they have no grounding in what is actually achievable!

[amogles]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	And how exactly would this get approved? There is no provision for anything like this short of a treaty change. That is the problem with all of these kind of hairy fairy solutions, they have no grounding in what is actually achievable!

Well them, what is achievable?

You can of course say the can't do team are going to turn down every compromise because of some legalese reason. But at the end of the day, if they don't believe in any solution, what are they negotiating for?

	Quote:
	That's one of the reasons I don't think Brexit isn't going to happen. Nobody in power actually wants it.

Is there a typo in here - or did you actually mean to write this?

	Quote:
	Is the a typo in there - or did you actually mean to write this?

Typo. I predict that in ten years' time, the United Kingdom will be a full member of the EU.

Not what I'd like to see, but that's what I think will happen.

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Depends on the objective. Since no additional countries in the region fell for communism it can be seen as a success even though it was a military loss. Just don't ask for proof of the theory.

Proof! Here!

This is the home of unsubstantiated opinions and perceptions and prejudice.

You are fighting against the tide

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	amogles
	The same has been said about tackling climate change.

What absolute bollocks!

Global warming is happening now and needs to be tackled now.

https://www.sciencealert.com/siberia...-and-carcasses

	Quote:	Jim2007
	And how exactly would this get approved? There is no provision for anything like this short of a treaty change. That is the problem with all of these kind of hairy fairy solutions, they have no grounding in what is actually achievable!

Brexit: Donald Tusk 'keeping door open' for Britain to stay in EU despite talks

'Dreamer' Donald Tusk Says Brexit Could Be Reversed

	Quote:	Jim2007
	In the even of the U.K. walking away there is not much that can be done beyond this.. And peace is not nearly as fragile as many republicans would have you believe. They know very well the days of the rifle and the ballot box is gone, I have not heard of a young fella signing up in years nor a training camp etc..

I agree with you in that I don't see a high risk of anything flaring up again in Norn Iron, times have moved on. I also don't think the EU consider it a serious risk, they're only making an issue of it to take the moral high ground.

The point is that the EU have constantly reiterated that they consider citizens rights, the Irish border and the financial settlement as the most important issues that need resolving before moving on with talks. But do they really consider them that important? We'd soon find out if the UK played the take-away close.

(I don't even believe they're that bothered about citizens rights, they know that the political situation in the UK together with UK law virtually guarantees the same rights that they enjoy today)

Good piece here summarising the deadlock in talks.

Get ready for a no deal Brexit

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I agree with you in that I don't see a high risk of anything flaring up again in Norn Iron, times have moved on.

I think a weekend in Glasgow will quickly disabuse you of that notion! The hatred is still very much alive and kicking.

[ajw]

All that matters is the vote of the people, and such they have spoken. Tells your more about our corrupt system when the will of the people is not being carried out.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:
	I think a weekend in Glasgow will quickly disabuse you of that notion! The hatred is still very much alive and kicking.

Yep Glasgow is a kind of a special place... I was glad when my son's school trip decided to give it a miss as I was not a 100% comfortable that aspbergers syndrome and an Irish accent was a good combination

As it was after day three he started tell anyone who asked him that he came from the west coast of Ireland as it avoided the whole you can't be Swiss with that accent challenge thingy...

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	ajw
	All that matters is the vote of the people, and such they have spoken. Tells your more about our corrupt system when the will of the people is not being carried out.

What is important is that the country abides by the constitution and the rule of law that defines democratic process there in. The U.K. has a sovereign parliament, which by all accounts seems to be what the people want. So claiming that system is corrupt because it is not behaving like a sovereign people is a non starter.

It is entirely with the power of the parliament to decide how BREXIT is executed even though admittedly it seems a bit flaky at the moment.