The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Thats not true, the UK does not need a deal, it's a good spin by the EU & minority remoners.

But there's no convincing data to the contrary, though, is there? There's no evidence that the UK DOESN'T need a deal.

"We can grow our own food", is about as far as they've got.

Dig for victory!

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Thats not true, the UK does not need a deal, it's a good spin by the EU & minority remoners.

Almost half of UK exports go to the EU. About 13% of EU exports go to the UK. You work it out. And that's without thinking about services. Passporting anyone?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Almost half of UK exports go to the EU. About 13% of EU exports go to the UK. You work it out.

You may not have noticed, the value of the £ fell, so even with tariffs broadening speaking is of zero cost to the UK.
The devastation will be to the EU countries who can't raise prices of commodity goods they are selling to the UK.

If the £ had not fallen then a deal would be needed by the UK...........

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You may not have noticed, the value of the £ fell, so even with tariffs broadening speaking is of zero cost to the UK. The devastation will be to the EU countries who can't raise prices of commodity goods they are selling to the UK. If the £ had not fallen then a deal would be needed by the UK...........

So it's all good so long as the £ stays low, then? That's reassuring.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You may not have noticed, the value of the £ fell, so even with tariffs broadening speaking is of zero cost to the UK. The devastation will be to the EU countries who can't raise prices of commodity goods they are selling to the UK. If the £ had not fallen then a deal would be needed by the UK...........

First it's not and never has been particularly about import tariffs. The issue is non-tariff barriers. Import clearance, standards and norms, etc., all of which are smoothed by the single market making the current trade and logistics structure in Europe possible. Take that away and the UK becomes very unattractive for many production chains and manufacturers are going to move away from UK production. Toyota have recently made that quite clear.

Second commodity prices are in Euros or Dollars. Hence UK inflation hitting 3% and moving upwards.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You may not have noticed, the value of the £ fell, so even with tariffs broadening speaking is of zero cost to the UK. The devastation will be to the EU countries who can't raise prices of commodity goods they are selling to the UK. If the £ had not fallen then a deal would be needed by the UK...........

The greedy UK exporters increased their prices so the expected increase in exports did not happen.
Of course the exporters did increase their profits in sterling terms.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	So it's all good so long as the £ stays low, then? That's reassuring.

Remember the days when 'Made in Taiwan' was a sign of cheap, disposable junk?

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You may not have noticed, the value of the £ fell, so even with tariffs broadening speaking is of zero cost to the UK. The devastation will be to the EU countries who can't raise prices of commodity goods they are selling to the UK. If the £ had not fallen then a deal would be needed by the UK...........

We have a bet, FMF, remember?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	You may not have noticed, the value of the £ fell, so even with tariffs broadening speaking is of zero cost to the UK.

And what you definitely did not notice is that exports have not gone up as a result of the low exchange rate. Instead of growing their business, UK companies have upped their prices and pocketed the gains. So the first benefit of BREXIT goes to the 1%....

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The devastation will be to the EU countries who can't raise prices of commodity goods they are selling to the UK.

Well the worst impact will most likely be on Ireland, but even then the UK only accounts for about 14% of exports and that is mainly in the agriculture sector. This has been well recognised and the Irish government has been pushing to find new export markets, for example:
Ireland making headway on China beef deal
Ireland set to significantly increase US beef exports
Egypt re-opens to Irish beef exports for the first time since the 1990s
Interesting how EU membership have not stopped Ireland from going after these opportunities with non EU states....

Of course the other side is that relying on large imports of Irish foodstuffs just got a whole lot more expensive for the average UK shopper. And having to impose WTO import tariffs on top of that is there is a no deal outcome...

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	So it's all good so long as the £ stays low, then? That's reassuring.

As Britain booms post BREXIT the £ will strengthen over time, nothing odd about that. Amazed so many intelligent people don't get the huge financial advantage to the UK having a weak currency.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	We have a bet, FMF, remember?

Indeed, looking forward to my payout almost 5 years to go thats a very long time & CH could easily be in recession due to overvalued currency by then.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	As Britain booms post BREXIT the £ will strengthen over time, nothing odd about that. Amazed so many intelligent people don't get the huge financial advantage to the UK having a weak currency.

That's a big assumption.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	That's a big assumption.

It will, why do you think James Dyson was so anti EU, a British company having to pay EU tariffs on their manufacturing. Tariffs are nothing new & paid inspite of the EU.

Currency fall has caused huge cost savings, FTSE has been booming as a result of BREXIT, company profits are & will be higher, that is a boom

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It will, why do you think James Dyson was so anti EU, a British company having to pay EU tariffs on their manufacturing. Tariffs are nothing new & paid inspite of the EU. Currency fall has caused huge cost savings, FTSE has been booming as a result of BREXIT, company profits are & will be higher, that is a boom

As a result of BREXIT or as a result of the referendum? It's two different things. Brexit hasn't happened yet.

For every James Dyson there's an equal sceptic though isn't there? Doesn't have to be a British manufacturer / company to have an opinion either. There are plenty of international companies based in the UK. Many of whom (quoted in large numbers all over this thread) have reactions ranging from support to pulling the plug on their operations on UK soil.

Dyson was on one of the politics programmes on a Sunday morning not so long ago with a slightly more tempered opinion about the departure from the EU. Seems his opinion is reflecting the clusterf00k of the negotiations.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	ICurrency fall has caused huge cost savings, FTSE has been booming as a result of BREXIT, company profits are & will be higher, that is a boom

No. FTSE has been rising as a direct result of the falling pound and nothing else - FTSE companies earn a fairly high proportion of their income in $ and €.

Increasing company profits do not benefit the average person.

	Quote:
	for every james dyson there's 100 business sceptics though isn't there?

ftfy

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It will, why do you think James Dyson was so anti EU, a British company having to pay EU tariffs on their manufacturing. Tariffs are nothing new & paid inspite of the EU. Currency fall has caused huge cost savings, FTSE has been booming as a result of BREXIT, company profits are & will be higher, that is a boom

More food for thought. Manufacturing is less than 19% of the UK economy.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It will, why do you think James Dyson was so anti EU, a British company having to pay EU tariffs on their manufacturing. Tariffs are nothing new & paid inspite of the EU.

Ya, if I was Dyson, I'd want all my computers to have to pay tariffs too!

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Currency fall has caused huge cost savings, FTSE has been booming as a result of BREXIT, company profits are & will be higher, that is a boom

The cost all imported raw materials have gone up, there have been no significant drop in wages or any other locally sourced resources, so where are the huge cost savings coming from???

As for the FTSE, it's up because speculators expect higher profit reports due to FX gains. The companies have not become more profitable in operating terms and the investor gains are offset by a drop in purchasing power....

[Jim2007]

The real reason for voting for BREXIT revealed!

	Quote:
	4265. Posted by Will I voted to leave the EU because of the cruelty to animals on the continent.

From the BBC site.....

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	It will, why do you think James Dyson was so anti EU, a British company having to pay EU tariffs on their manufacturing.

Ooo! Is this like Top Trumps?

I take your Leave Dyson and trump it with Remain Stephen Hawking.