The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	marton
	Comments please?

All the answers aren't needed at the moment, only a plan of where the country should be. There's a two year time frame for negotiation. And besides:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7057306.html

In other news there seems to be a slight swing towards of Brexit. This thing could be close.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...P=share_btn_tw

There's already been concerns as to the fairness of the voting procedure. The instructions sent out with the postal votes have instructed people to vote Remain.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...paign=DM123429

Also, EU citizens have been sent polling cards despite not being eligible to vote.

http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...-polling-cards

[marton]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	I wouldn't be so worried. The UK is one of the biggest and richest countries in the EU. If they leave, then more will leave soon as someone needs to compensate the UK contributions.

What is the relationship between my question and your answer?

You mean that more countries will leave the EU so generating a much increased demand for skilled and experienced negotiators who do not actually exist. The demand will be generated by both UK and the new leavers.

Happy to be here in Switzerland who actually do have skilled negotiators; possibly not enough if we have to negotiate with UK and lose the EU bilaterals at the same time.

BTW, as an example Switzerland has 7 bilaterals with the EU and ca. 210 trade treaties; UK will have major work to do after Brexit.

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	marton
	Comments please?

The plan is to use the statutory minimum 2 year negotiating period to make arrangements for all of these things.

Nothing will suddenly change on June 24, so quit this scaremongering stuff.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	The plan is to use the statutory minimum 2 year negotiating period to make arrangements for all of these things.

So vote out and we'll figure the rest out later, despite the fact that the negotiations will be stacked in favour of the EU as any single member state can veto the negotiations and after two years you simply exit with the status of a third country and WTO trading benefits. What a plan

[lewton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	In other news there seems to be a slight swing towards of Brexit. This thing could be close. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...P=share_btn_tw

The Guardian is obviously try to make sure that remainers will show up to vote.

[Tinkiwinki]

I wouldn't be too worried about a British exit vote. The strategie of inducing fear into the voters will do its work. As it did in the Schotland referendum.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	So you're pro electoral reform and pro EU, how does that work then? You're happy to be a member of an anti democratic organisation where your vote goes nowhere but want more say in the what goes on in the UK? It doesn't make sense.

Because I believe in a hell of a lot of what the EU stands for and why it came about in the first place. Reform can only come from within and isolationism doesn't work.

I remember the kick off in my house when the boundry changes happened in the UK back in the mid '70's. My parents were livid. This led me to the Liberal party because they were the only ones at the time who had PR as a main feature of their manifesto.

Just as an example, me and my mates (all originally from Wigan) had a massive thread going on fb last year about how many voters there were in each of our constituancies. My mate in Hertfordshire lived in a place with only 51k voters. My place in Windsor only had 57k voters, yet our home in Wigan had 87k voters per 1 MP seat. How can that be right, fair and just?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Also, EU citizens have been sent polling cards despite not being eligible to vote. http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...-polling-cards

That's the fault of the Department of Work & Pensions. They make errors with every election and need to get their act together.

In last year's General election, my OH was eligible to vote as a Commonwealth passport holder, living and working in the UK for a number of years. He got his polling card, but wasn't allowed to vote at the ballot box because DWP had only read the top line of his dual nationality details, and his other passport is Greek, which disqualified him from the vote as being an EU migrant. I was straight on the phone to the election services office in Windsor for clarification on that one.

[nickatbasel]

I watched the BBC documentary last night - in the end both sides of the debate present fudged figures and facts.

What is not clear is how it will work with UK citizens wanting to live / work in an EU country or EU citizens wanting to live in the UK.

For example my wife is a NL citizen. My son has dual NL/UK nationality - but I believe he would need to decide which nationality he wants to keep when he reaches 18 as the Netherlands don't accept dual nationality.

In theory after an "out" if we decided to move to the UK my wife would have to jump through a series of hoops in order to be allowed to live and work there. I would need to jump through several hoops if our situation was such that we had to move to the Netherlands.

In practice probably nothing would change overnight after an "out" and the longterm landscape would depend on exit negotiations.

For me the answers on these matters from the Outers is far too vague - because they just don't know / care.

One thing it has done is to get me moving on applying for Swiss naturalisation - I know they are not EU but I feel it would give us a little more security with the bilateral agreements being in place.

Cheers.
Nick

	Quote:	Chuff
	We would discriminate against low-paid menial workers coming to the UK and undercutting wages, but likely not for skilled roles.

[curley]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	There's already been concerns as to the fairness of the voting procedure. The instructions sent out with the postal votes have instructed people to vote Remain. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...paign=DM123429 Also, EU citizens have been sent polling cards despite not being eligible to vote. http://www.express.co.uk/news/politi...-polling-cards

That's devious, how desperate must they be. I hope it backfires big time.

[Castro]

	Quote:	nickatbasel
	I know they are not EU but I feel it would give us a little more security with the bilateral agreements being in place.

Which are currently being threatened by the Guillotine Clause.

	Quote:
	Switzerland–EU Example of the guillotine clause is found in the bilateral body of treaties between the European Union to Switzerland. These treaties give Switzerland access to the Internal market if Switzerland follow its rules. The clause states that, if any of the seven treaties are to be terminated, all of the treaties are automatically terminated. Also, later changes in the underlying EU directives must be accepted by Switzerland. One reason for the creation of this clause is that the more cumbersome decision-making processes of the European Union would make it difficult for the EU to respond to the termination of other contracts, should Switzerland terminate them. In 2009 Switzerland accepted a change to one of the treaties, the treaty on free movement, extending it to the new EU countries. This was fairly controversial in Switzerland, but the referendum gave a positive result, fearing the guillotine clause. Following the success of the 2014 Swiss referendum to limit EU immigration through quotas, invocation of guillotine clause has been suggested to terminate all the other agreements signed since 1999. The EU has claimed that the bilateral treaties have given Switzerland more cherry-picking in its relation to the EU than any other country, and shouldn't be allowed more. Switzerland has a deadline in 2017 for a negotiated resolution. Source

[Medea Fleecestealer]

Interesting article from the Beeb on where the EU itself might be heading.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-...endum-36415649

Wider themes indeed and something we all should consider.

[tormund]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	So vote out and we'll figure the rest out later, despite the fact that the negotiations will be stacked in favour of the EU as any single member state can veto the negotiations and after two years you simply exit with the status of a third country and WTO trading benefits. What a plan

Sounds like an argument about how dysfunctional the EU is to me.

[Tinkiwinki]

	Quote:	nickatbasel
	I watched the BBC documentary last night - in the end both sides of the debate present fudged figures and facts. What is not clear is how it will work with UK citizens wanting to live / work in an EU country or EU citizens wanting to live in the UK. For example my wife is a NL citizen. My son has dual NL/UK nationality - but I believe he would need to decide which nationality he wants to keep when he reaches 18 as the Netherlands don't accept dual nationality. Nick

Your son wil not lose his dual citizenship NL/UK as he has both now being under 18 years old. He should never let the NL passport expire as he would not get a new one. He may also get a CH passport depending of course on your time here etc.

[nickatbasel]

True.

	Quote:	Castro
	Which are currently being threatened by the Guillotine Clause.

[dodgyken]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Just as an example, me and my mates (all originally from Wigan) had a massive thread going on fb last year about how many voters there were in each of our constituancies. My mate in Hertfordshire lived in a place with only 51k voters. My place in Windsor only had 57k voters, yet our home in Wigan had 87k voters per 1 MP seat. How can that be right, fair and just?

Exactly!!!

Windsor should have 2 MPs based on total tax contribution

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	All the answers aren't needed at the moment, only a plan of where the country should be. There's a two year time frame for negotiation. And besides: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7057306.html In other news there seems to be a slight swing towards of Brexit. This thing could be close. http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...P=share_btn_tw

"only a plan of where the country should be" There is no plan, only an objective.
The steps and resources needed to reach the objective are not defined.

A plan is a detailed exhibit with numbers and dates.

[marton]

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	The plan is to use the statutory minimum 2 year negotiating period to make arrangements for all of these things. Nothing will suddenly change on June 24, so quit this scaremongering stuff.

That is not a plan, that is a wish.

As mentioned a plan has as a minimum detailed resources and a list of steps with target dates and deliverables.

"Nothing will suddenly change on June 24" I hope not but if the leavers win....

It is not clear who will do the hard work and where these resources will come from.

I have run many two year projects but never one with so little basic information three weeks before the start.
The leavers will need to find a project coordinator, leaders for each of the major tasks, budgets for people, recruitment & travel, computer systems, offices, specialist consultants; probably at least 6 months preparatory work to define a plan and budget that will need to be approved by Parliament.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	That is not a plan, that is a wish. As mentioned a plan has as a minimum detailed resources and a list of steps with target dates and deliverables. "Nothing will suddenly change on June 24" I hope not but if the leavers win.... It is not clear who will do the hard work and where these resources will come from. I have run many two year projects but never one with so little basic information three weeks before the start. The leavers will need to find a project coordinator, leaders for each of the major tasks, budgets for people, recruitment & travel, computer systems, offices, specialist consultants; probably at least 6 months preparatory work to define a plan and budget that will need to be approved by Parliament.

The mandarins in whitehall have been on the case

But I would personally prefer that no immediate deal is done and that the UK moves onto WTO terms for a period of time to help push the economy into looking towards non-EU markets.

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	The leavers will need to find a project coordinator, leaders for each of the major tasks, budgets for people, recruitment & travel, computer systems, offices, specialist consultants; probably at least 6 months preparatory work to define a plan and budget that will need to be approved by Parliament.

Why should the leavers do that?

Isn't that the government's job?

If you call a referendum you need top be prepared to put into place contingency plans for both scenarios.