The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Watch what happens next. And listen to the language of Federica Mogherini's speech. This should concern people. Aside from the fact it's compromises the neutrality of several EU States, no one has had a vote on whether they want this to happen.

...which is why they are correctly called "proposals". Certainly cannot proceed without full agreement of the Council at least, I would think parliament as well.

Oh and one person's opinion does not make it official policy either.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Watch what happens next. And listen to the language of Federica Mogherini's speech. This should concern people. Aside from the fact it's compromises the neutrality of several EU States, no one has had a vote on whether they want this to happen.

As usual you once again demonstrate your complete lack of knowledge on the subject! If you can show us where in the treaties a vote is required on this matter get back to us. Even the UK government agreed the necessary treaty provision to allow for this. So yes event the UK voted for it in accordance with their method of approving treaty changes.

[aSwissInTheUS]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Oh wow, 3 countries in the top 30 ranked by GDP. And Norway and Switzerland are already part of EEA/EFTA. Your map proves nothing. In fact, of the World's top economies, the EU has an unratified agreement with Canada, that's it.

Let see how well Switzerland is doing. Hmm EU, Japan, Canada, and even China. Not bad.

https://www.seco.admin.ch/seco/en/ho...r_Schweiz.html
http://www.efta.int/free-trade/free-trade-agreements

	Quote:	marton
	Stop trying to move the goal posts again, GDP ranking is irrelevant. My map proves the EU has agreements with over 80 countries so your claim the EU cannot negotiate is disproved.

GDP ranking is irrelevant? LOL, you can't be that thick, surely? I'll make it simple for you. Let's say marton comes up with a super new recipe for marmalade. We'll call it marton's marvelous marmalade. Now you want to sell your marmalade so look for places where you can shift it. You start at your local convenience store, where the owner Volkan shrugs and says, "why not", he's just happy for the extra business. In fact, he says his brother Murat who has a store in the next village can also stock it. Furthermore, you also convince some farmers markets to sell your marvelous marmalade as well as the local petrol station. Good for you. You've negotiated all those deals.

Now with confidence you want to branch out, you go to Coop, Migros, Aldi, Globus and Jelmoli. But they all tell you to get to cock off. But you're marton, you don't worry, you've negotiated all those deals. Murat flogs a couple of jars here, the farmers market a few more there. The number of sold is irrelevant. That you can stock your marmalade in all these different places shows how good you are at negotiation.

	Quote:	aSwissInTheUS
	Let see how well Switzerland is doing. Hmm EU, Japan, Canada, and even China. Not bad. Attachment 130851 https://www.seco.admin.ch/seco/en/ho...r_Schweiz.html http://www.efta.int/free-trade/free-trade-agreements

Beat me to it. If marton thinks the EU is good at negotiating trade deals, then Switzerland are on the 10th Dan.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	As usual you once again demonstrate your complete lack of knowledge on the subject! If you can show us where in the treaties a vote is required on this matter get back to us. Even the UK government agreed the necessary treaty provision to allow for this. So yes event the UK voted for it in accordance with their method of approving treaty changes.

Your treaties can get to feck. "Where a vote is required on this matter" bollocks. Treaties made by governments where no vote was put out to their people in order to ratify them. "Even the UK government agreed". You still don't get it do you? This is why the PEOPLE of the UK voted out.

You Irish should be happy for people like Mr Ming. Calling this out for what it is.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	GDP ranking is irrelevant? LOL, you can't be that thick, surely? I'll make it simple for you. Let's say marton comes up with a super new recipe for marmalade. We'll call it marton's marvelous marmalade. Now you want to sell your marmalade so look for places where you can shift it. You start at your local convenience store, where the owner Volkan shrugs and says, "why not", he's just happy for the extra business. In fact, he says his brother Murat who has a store in the next village can also stock it. Furthermore, you also convince some farmers markets to sell your marvelous marmalade as well as the local petrol station. Good for you. You've negotiated all those deals. Now with confidence you want to branch out, you go to Coop, Migros, Aldi, Globus and Jelmoli. But they all tell you to get to cock off. But you're marton, you don't worry, you've negotiated all those deals. Murat flogs a couple of jars here, the farmers market a few more there. The number of sold is irrelevant. That you can stock your marmalade in all these different places shows how good you are at negotiation. Beat me to it. If marton thinks the EU is good at negotiating trade deals, then Switzerland are on the 10th Dan.

Feel free to keep moving the goal posts!
It does not change the fact that "your original claim that the EU is an organisation that is incapable of negotiating" is nonsense and contrary to the facts

"If marton thinks the EU is good at negotiating trade deals" The ground keeper trying to move the goal posts again!
I never claimed "the EU is good at negotiating trade deals" do not try to put words in my mouth, do provide evidence that ever I claimed this!
I simply provided the facts to refute your claim "the EU is an organisation that is incapable of negotiating"

The rest of your post is sadly totally irrelevant to this topic we are discussing.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Your treaties can get to feck. "Where a vote is required on this matter" bollocks. Treaties made by governments where no vote was put out to their people in order to ratify them. "Even the UK government agreed". You still don't get it do you? This is why the PEOPLE of the UK voted out. You Irish should be happy for people like Mr Ming. Calling this out for what it is.

Every country is entitled to approve treaty changes according to it's own democratic process, the fact that that does not fit with your narrative is something for you to deal with or ignore as you choose, but don't expect to be taken seriously.

The U.K. has a sovereign parliament and it is responsible for treaty ratification, that is how it works for them. Democracies work in different ways deal with it.

The idea that you get to decide how democracy works in each member state and then try to make some kind of point because it does not happen the way you wanted is amusing, but also indicates why your contributions should not be take seriously.

[marton]

Oooppss!

	Quote:
	Nigel Dodds, who leads the DUP in Westminster, told his party's conference in Belfast that any special arrangements for Northern Ireland in Brexit talks should be taken off the table. The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has warned Theresa May that the idea of using the Irish Sea as a post-Brexit border between the rest of the UK is 'non-negotiable'.

Source

As May only has a Parliamentary majority with the DUP then this is a credible threat!

If you open a window you'll be able to hear marton and Jim weeping.

"'Perfectly manageable' for UK to trade with EU under WTO rules"

'No EU-UK deal? It is not the end of the world', says WTO chief

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	If you open a window you'll be able to hear marton and Jim weeping. "'Perfectly manageable' for UK to trade with EU under WTO rules" 'No EU-UK deal? It is not the end of the world', says WTO chief

Nice headline but what Roberto Azevedo actually said was;

	Quote:
	Britain's EU membership gave it preferential trading terms not only with the other 27 member states, but also the 58 countries with which the bloc had FTAs.

	Quote:
	Without a deal, bilateral trade would likely be subject to higher WTO tariffs as well as other barriers such as increased red tape.

Ahead of Britain's EU referendum in June 2016, Azevedo warned that exporters risked billions of pounds (dollars, euros) in extra customs duties each year after Brexit.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Ahead of Britain's EU referendum in June 2016, Azevedo warned that exporters risked billions of pounds (dollars, euros) in extra customs duties each year after Brexit.

Due to fall in the £, those companies will be in a better financial position with the WTO tariffs after BREXIT, rather than if the status quo was maintained. EU exporters face a double whammy.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Due to fall in the £, those companies will be in a better financial position with the WTO tariffs after BREXIT, rather than if the status quo was maintained. EU exporters face a double whammy.

The commonly held belief that when Sterling depreciates, we export more is simply no longer true. Because so much of our manufacturing is in reality assembling imported components, what we might gain on the export price we lose on the materials import costs rising.

As proof of this, Sterling has been low for over a year now but the UK balance of trade has not seen a corresponding improvement.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	The commonly held belief that when Sterling depreciates, we export more is simply no longer true. Because so much of our manufacturing is in reality assembling imported components, what we might gain on the export price we lose on the materials import costs rising. As proof of this, Sterling has been low for over a year now but the UK balance of trade has not seen a corresponding improvement.

Selling the same no of widgets at a higher price gives a higher profit, no need to sell more widgets at a lower price.

Profitability for a company is not directly related with UK balance of trade.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	The commonly held belief that when Sterling depreciates, we export more is simply no longer true.

It never was. By and large, a currency's strength or lack thereof is the result of the underlying economic strength.

FMF your claim makes no sense. If the weak £ were a good thing it would show already, however the rolling 12month trade balance dropped (the deficit increased) by about 40% after the vote.

[me.anon]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	. . . "'Perfectly manageable' for UK to trade with EU under WTO rules" . . .

I'm surprised still to see these fantasies being indulged of slipping seamlessly out of the EU into the welcoming arms of "WTO trading rules".

You have only to look at the example of increasing protectionism with trading partners applying massive and arbitrary duties on imports from each other, with pretexts such as "national security" or "unfair trade practices" and with the transparent purpose of supporting the home industries and sabotaging competitors, to see how hard it is going to be out there:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a8058386.html

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN1CY02L

http://www.globaltrademag.com/global...even-countries

etc. etc.

[pdofr]

	Quote:	marton
	The commonly held belief that when Sterling depreciates, we export more is simply no longer true.

That happened when the pound fell after the subprime meltdown.

There were reports at the time that exporters were choosing to take increased profits instead of reducing prices. Their choice at the end of the day, but yes, a falling pound does not automatically imply more exports.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	pdofr
	That happened when the pound fell after the subprime meltdown. There were reports at the time that exporters were choosing to take profits instead of reducing prices. Their choice at the end of the day.

If the claim held any truth at all (with a not-so-short-term perspective) Italy would have dominated world trade 1950-2000, while it still had the Lira. Same for Zimbabwe and Venezuela in more recent years.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	FMF your claim makes no sense. If the weak £ were a good thing it would show already, however the rolling 12month trade balance dropped (the deficit increased) by about 40% after the vote.

It. makes sense to shareholders, if the country was run like a business with the aim of a surplus it might make sense to you

[pdofr]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	If the claim held any truth at all (with a not-so-short-term perspective) Italy would have dominated world trade 1950-2000, while it still had the Lira. Same for Zimbabwe and Venezuela in more recent years.

I believe that Marton's statement of "commonly held belief" is based on what we were repeatedly told by politicians and the financial pages of the press, back in the 1970s when the pound was falling against other currencies.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	pdofr
	That happened when the pound fell after the subprime meltdown. There were reports at the time that exporters were choosing to take increased profits instead of reducing prices. Their choice at the end of the day, but yes, a falling pound does not automatically imply more exports.

It's impossible to raise prices on a commodity product, so never drop the price if you can avoid it. Prices in UK shops are 3% higher when the currency has fallen over 20%, clearly exchange rates make little difference to prices as goods are priced at what the market will bear.

Did prices in CH fall over the last few years?