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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #10321  
Old 29.11.2017, 10:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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British and EU negotiators have agreed on a Brexit divorce bill which could see the UK paying as much as £57bn, in an attempt to get Germany and France to agree to move the negotiations on to trade.

Continuous behind-the-scenes negotiations have led to a broad agreement by the UK to a gross financial settlement of £89bn on leaving the bloc, although the British expect the final net bill to be half as much.

Source

They wasted a lot of time before accepting the inevitable

Edit; Now they just have to find a solution for the Irish border
easy peasy

Edit2;- The ft estimate the gross financial settlement to be over £100Bn
A one off £57 billion payment isn't much in the grand scheme of things. The country already pays over £40 billion in interest payments on the national debt every single year. What should be a must however is that any payment is dependent on a future deal. No deal, no payment. Though I don't trust this incompetent government to manage that.
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  #10322  
Old 29.11.2017, 12:36
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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A one off £57 billion payment isn't much in the grand scheme of things. The country already pays over £40 billion in interest payments on the national debt every single year. What should be a must however is that any payment is dependent on a future deal. No deal, no payment. Though I don't trust this incompetent government to manage that.
You did not read the link did you?

It is not a one off payment; it is simply the UK agreeing to continue to pay all their existing commitments to the EU. It is not linked to any future deal, it is simply that the UK will not renege on their commitments.

For example, the UK contributes to the pension payments for a group of EU workers and those payments will likely continue so long as they survive; so nobody can accurately forecast what that will eventually cost.

There will be a benefit because the EU will also continue to pay their commitments to the UK.

Consequently the net cost to the UK will be difficult to estimate; UK politicians will make low estimates and EU politicians higher ones.

Whatever, I am glad the UK now stands before the world as a country that stands by its deals and does not cheat on them.
  #10323  
Old 29.11.2017, 15:16
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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They wasted a lot of time before accepting the inevitable

Edit; Now they just have to find a solution for the Irish border
easy peasy

Edit2;- The ft estimate the gross financial settlement to be over £100Bn
Once German coalition talks were declared a failure I came across an interesting article. It basically said it's very poor tactics to shove the difficult topics aside. Doing so often increases the odds of failure rather than decrease them.

All negotiations contain give-and-take from both sides. First you establish your positions, declare the unnegotiable points. In return for the latter you're lenient in other less crucial areas, the other side does likewise. If however the tough topics are put aside at first, there's no concession-making material left once talks about them start.

As a consequence it's difficult to get something in return for concessions made, making it difficult to swallow the bitter pill and "sell" the outcome at home.
  #10324  
Old 29.11.2017, 17:52
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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A one off £57 billion payment isn't much in the grand scheme of things. The country already pays over £40 billion in interest payments on the national debt every single year. What should be a must however is that any payment is dependent on a future deal. No deal, no payment. Though I don't trust this incompetent government to manage that.
I agree - you wouldn't walk into a shop and agree to pay £60,000 for a car without knowing what model you were getting! But I also agree that there is every chance that this government will do just that and we'll walk away with the trade deal equivalent of a Datsun 120!
  #10325  
Old 29.11.2017, 18:21
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

The Daily Express just issued their daily Brexit briefing; anybody else see a major conflict between their two headlines? (picture below).
Not an unusual occurrence in these strange times
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brexit-referendum-thread-potential-consequences-gb-eu-brits-ch-brexitdivorcebill.jpg  
  #10326  
Old 29.11.2017, 18:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I agree - you wouldn't walk into a shop and agree to pay £60,000 for a car without knowing what model you were getting! But I also agree that there is every chance that this government will do just that and we'll walk away with the trade deal equivalent of a Datsun 120!
The only issue with that is, the UK already signed the contracts (many of them ages ago) and now wants (or wanted until recently, it seems) to get out for less than the agreed previously price. That's why the EU needs this settled before even talking about a new contract - talking about a new contract is a waste of time if you need to assume the other side will break it at a whim.
  #10327  
Old 29.11.2017, 18:49
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I don't disagree with you at all. It's just a bit sad that we all start talking about the intricacies of the agreements we have had for so long, and the repercussions of Brexit after the vote. The leave campaign painted a very clear and misleading picture, the remain campaign left us with nothing and did very little to sell their side. I think by the time the stable gate is closed the voters may well be better informed. I have read some really valid and interesting posts in this forum - and it's all information that didn't seem readily available in the lead up to the vote. Now we do discuss and build a better picture and yet the vote has happened and regardless what we all learn now it's down to a weak government to negotiate the future. I still wouldn't have voted differently, I was a remain when I had the chance, now I am just a passenger!
  #10328  
Old 29.11.2017, 19:04
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The only issue with that is, the UK already signed the contracts (many of them ages ago) and now wants (or wanted until recently, it seems) to get out for less than the agreed previously price. That's why the EU needs this settled before even talking about a new contract - talking about a new contract is a waste of time if you need to assume the other side will break it at a whim.
Indeed, that is why the UK had to settle this honourably to become a trustworthy partner able to negotiate future new trade agreements.
  #10329  
Old 29.11.2017, 21:04
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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A one off £57 billion payment isn't much in the grand scheme of things. The country already pays over £40 billion in interest payments on the national debt every single year. What should be a must however is that any payment is dependent on a future deal. No deal, no payment. Though I don't trust this incompetent government to manage that.
Well you've changed your tune, but typically you still did not get it right! The UK has fully accepted the EU proposal on how the amount will be calculated. There is not agreed amount nor any commitment to a trade deal. And if you'd paid attention you'd know that the most likely trade deal offered will be a Canadian styled one!

Just as well you have a PM who is so skilled at U turning...
  #10330  
Old 29.11.2017, 21:36
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well you've changed your tune, but typically you still did not get it right! The UK has fully accepted the EU proposal on how the amount will be calculated. There is not agreed amount nor any commitment to a trade deal. And if you'd paid attention you'd know that the most likely trade deal offered will be a Canadian styled one!

Just as well you have a PM who is so skilled at U turning...
Bloody hell, you seem to know more than the press! Remarkable seeing as though nothing has been officially announced yet, certainly nothing on the "Canadian styled deal". And one more thing that for once you and marton have forgotten - the UK is a parliamentary democracy, you know the one you cream your pants over in your eagerness to remind us constantly? Well that means that Parliament will have a vote on any deal, so if it's a deal a la Canada, or one where the UK is getting diddly squat in return for their 50 billion, then it will in all likelihood get voted down.
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Old 29.11.2017, 22:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Bloody hell, you seem to know more than the press! Remarkable seeing as though nothing has been officially announced yet, certainly nothing on the "Canadian styled deal". And one more thing that for once you and marton have forgotten - the UK is a parliamentary democracy, you know the one you cream your pants over in your eagerness to remind us constantly? Well that means that Parliament will have a vote on any deal, so if it's a deal a la Canada, or one where the UK is getting diddly squat in return for their 50 billion, then it will in all likelihood get voted down.
The main thing that worries me about the democracy bit is this: Democracy got us into this mess with Brexit when the public voted for it democratically, Trump got elected through a democratic vote, and since then we've ended up with more elections than I care to recall. NONE of them had the predicted outcome. So, what in all likelihood should get voted for may not be the case!
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  #10332  
Old 29.11.2017, 22:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Bloody hell, you seem to know more than the press! Remarkable seeing as though nothing has been officially announced yet, certainly nothing on the "Canadian styled deal". And one more thing that for once you and marton have forgotten - the UK is a parliamentary democracy, you know the one you cream your pants over in your eagerness to remind us constantly? Well that means that Parliament will have a vote on any deal, so if it's a deal a la Canada, or one where the UK is getting diddly squat in return for their 50 billion, then it will in all likelihood get voted down.
or one [deal] where the UK is getting diddly squat in return for their 50 billion.

You miss the point again
It is not rocket science!

According to the Press the UK has now agreed to make all the payments that were defined in the various EU/UK agreements; these same agreements define the deliverables that the UK agreed to so "diddly squat" will not occur.

This is the divorce payment, not a pre-payment for a trade deal.

Can you explain why the UK Parliament would want to cheat on these agreements?
  #10333  
Old 30.11.2017, 10:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

All the talk is of the UK continuing to fund their commitments to the EU until their relative contracts end.

Will the EU reciprocate? i.e. fund all the projects they are currently funding in the UK until the end?
  #10334  
Old 30.11.2017, 10:38
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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All the talk is of the UK continuing to fund their commitments to the EU until their relative contracts end.

Will the EU reciprocate? i.e. fund all the projects they are currently funding in the UK until the end?
In principle, Yes, that is why it is so difficult to forecast the final UK net cost because some of the payments in both directions depend on external factors which will change and consequently hard to forecast their cost effect.
  #10335  
Old 30.11.2017, 10:44
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Bloody hell, you seem to know more than the press! Remarkable seeing as though nothing has been officially announced yet, certainly nothing on the "Canadian styled deal". And one more thing that for once you and marton have forgotten - the UK is a parliamentary democracy, you know the one you cream your pants over in your eagerness to remind us constantly? Well that means that Parliament will have a vote on any deal, so if it's a deal a la Canada, or one where the UK is getting diddly squat in return for their 50 billion, then it will in all likelihood get voted down.
You sure about that?

Strip away the layers and Brexit becomes ever more murky - Gina Miller

If you skip straight to the bottom of that article, you will find this:
Gina Miller was the lead claimant in the successful legal fight to allow parliament to vote on whether the UK could start the process of leaving the EU
They not only tried to set the whole thing in motion without a vote in Parliament, but legally fought for that position.

Yours,
Disgusted from somewhere that isn't Tunbridge Wells
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  #10336  
Old 30.11.2017, 10:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Is Gina Miller still a thing?
  #10337  
Old 30.11.2017, 11:05
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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the UK is a parliamentary democracy
Kindly prove your claim by referencing any UK-governmental source.
  #10338  
Old 30.11.2017, 11:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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In principle, Yes, that is why it is so difficult to forecast the final UK net cost because some of the payments in both directions depend on external factors which will change and consequently hard to forecast their cost effect.
so it’s possible that the NET bill is less than 50 billion. No one really knows.

Also the BBC news reported last
night that parliament is happy with it. No one complained. Interesting to know why.
  #10339  
Old 30.11.2017, 11:18
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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so it’s possible that the NET bill is less than 50 billion. No one really knows.
That *is* the net bill. Gross amounts are something like 80-90bln paid by the UK less 30bln paid by the EU.
  #10340  
Old 30.11.2017, 11:27
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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so it’s possible that the NET bill is less than 50 billion. No one really knows.

Also the BBC news reported last
night that parliament is happy with it. No one complained. Interesting to know why.
Please explain why you believe the UK Parliament would not be happy that the UK Govt. has agreed to meet its formal obligations?
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