The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	amogles
	Why should the leavers do that? Isn't that the government's job? If you call a referendum you need top be prepared to put into place contingency plans for both scenarios.

Governments are using the ostrich-approach

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	That is not a plan, that is a wish. As mentioned a plan has as a minimum detailed resources and a list of steps with target dates and deliverables.

It's not about a plan, it is about a direction. The choice we have is whether we want to be in a European Federal Superstate or outside of it.

There's no plan or deadline for how the EU federal superstate will come either, it is also just a direction, except with the twist that we would not be the ones in control of it, but instead we will be dragged along with the tide of QMV.

The French and Germans make no secret about ever closer union, yet the remain crowd cling onto the belief that we will remain with the status quo. The future within the EU and the road to a EU superstate is also a huge unknown, it is just that people get used to it as it is introduced gradually.

For me this is a pivotal moment in British history, it will be the UK's chance to leave a bureaucratic, protectionist customs union (which as aspirations of monetary, fiscal and political union) to chart its own way, as it has done successfully for many centuries. It's normal to experience trepidation at change and the unknown, but Britain has faced it in the past and thrived and it will do so again as long as the people are not afraid to give it a try and take this first step to freedom and self-determination.

[nickatbasel]

It's a bit more complicated than that. If he would live outside the Netherlands or EU for a period of more than 10 years after reaching the age of majority he would lose his Dutch nationality.

To prevent this he would need to be resident in NL or EU for at least one year or by applying for a new passport.

	Quote:	Tinkiwinki
	Your son wil not lose his dual citizenship NL/UK as he has both now being under 18 years old. He should never let the NL passport expire as he would not get a new one. He may also get a CH passport depending of course on your time here etc.

Sent from my GT-I9505 using Tapatalk

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	nickatbasel
	It's a bit more complicated than that. If he would live outside the Netherlands or EU for a period of more than 10 years after reaching the age of majority he would lose his Dutch nationality. To prevent this he would need to be resident in NL or EU for at least one year or by applying for a new passport.

No, Tinkiwinki's statement is correct. You don't need to be a resident of NL or a EU country.

[nickatbasel]

You're right - he could just renew his passport each time.

I had to re-read the Wiki article a few times before seeing that part.

Nevertheless, an out would make it awkward for us to live as a family in an EU country or the UK - unless the UK does a freedom-of-movement deal with the EU.

	Quote:	k_and_e
	No, Tinkiwinki's statement is correct. You don't need to be a resident of NL or a EU country.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	The mandarins in whitehall have been on the case But I would personally prefer that no immediate deal is done and that the UK moves onto WTO terms for a period of time to help push the economy into looking towards non-EU markets.

"The mandarins in whitehall have been on the case" If so, they should publish some estimates of what is involved.

"UK moves onto WTO terms" They are very high level and do not cover matters like, for example, product acceptance testing, quotas and tariffs.

[Reb77Br]

	Quote:	Tinkiwinki
	I wouldn't be too worried about a British exit vote. The strategie of inducing fear into the voters will do its work. As it did in the Schotland referendum.

The difference with the Scottish referendum was that elderly voters tended to support Scotland remaining in the UK, whereas in this EU referendum, they tend to support Brexit. Unfortunately (for Remain), older voters are more likely to vote than younger ones. It was apparently thanks to older voters that David Cameron won the last election.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentis...ut-poll-brexit
Latest polls show Brexit ahead.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...n-poll-reveals
It looks as if scaremongering about immigration is doing its work. I just heard today that an elderly relative is currently undecided, but is worried about "all the immigrants being let into the country" and Islam. This is despite living nowhere near immigrants, let alone Muslim ones, let alone Muslim EU immigrants.

So perhaps the strategy of inducing fear will do its work - in favour of Brexit.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	Why should the leavers do that? Isn't that the government's job? If you call a referendum you need top be prepared to put into place contingency plans for both scenarios.

Whoever does the job it would be nice to have some idea of the size and cost of the tasks we are facing to implement "Leave".
I doubt it is large enough to impact the size of people's govt pensions but we are currently all in the dark

[Tinkiwinki]

	Quote:	nickatbasel
	You're right - he could just renew his passport each time. I had to re-read the Wiki article a few times before seeing that part. Nevertheless, an out would make it awkward for us to live as a family in an EU country or the UK - unless the UK does a freedom-of-movement deal with the EU.

dont trust the Wiki. better trust the Tinkiwiki

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	tormund
	Sounds like an argument about how dysfunctional the EU is to me.

So the UK wants to regain sovereignty, but the sovereignty excised by the member states of the EU makes it dysfunctional, fantastic, truly fantastic logic :roll eyes:

Well like it or not, it the UK does decide to leave that is what it will have to deal with! And I expect there will be only two options available:
- Membership of the EEA
- WTO trading rules
And nothing else for a few reasons:
- Any other trade will have have to benefit all member states to avoid a veto
- Eastern state politicians would be under strong pressure to reject anything that would not include FMOP because that is what their citizens benefit from

On top of this all member states will want to avoid any treaty changes as that would trigger referenda in Denmark, France and Ireland. Now whatever about the first two, the chances of the Irish people accepting a treaty change that would benefit them less than they had before an exit is not very high.

So the only two options that can be offered without a veto or a referendum are the two above.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	So the UK wants to regain sovereignty, but the sovereignty excised by the member states of the EU makes it dysfunctional, fantastic, truly fantastic logic :roll eyes: Well like it or not, it the UK does decide to leave that is what it will have to deal with! And I expect there will be only two options available: - Membership of the EEA - WTO trading rules And nothing else for a few reasons: - Any other trade will have have to benefit all member states to avoid a veto - Eastern state politicians would be under strong pressure to reject anything that would not include FMOP because that is what their citizens benefit from On top of this all member states will want to avoid any treaty changes as that would trigger referenda in Denmark, France and Ireland. Now whatever about the first two, the chances of the Irish people accepting a treaty change that would benefit them less than they had before an exit is not very high. So the only two options that can be offered without a veto or a referendum are the two above.

It is difficult, practically impossible, these days to make a new free trade agreement that does not impact sovereignty

Look at the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP);
documents from TPP negotiations reveals that the deal would empower foreign corporations to skirt domestic courts and directly challenge health, environmental and other public interest policies before extra-judicial foreign tribunals.
Incidentally TPP negotiations have taken 7 years so far.

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiation is also well advanced.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	marton
	It is difficult, practically impossible, these days to make a new free trade agreement that does not impact sovereignty Look at the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP); documents from TPP negotiations reveals that the deal would empower foreign corporations to skirt domestic courts and directly challenge health, environmental and other public interest policies before extra-judicial foreign tribunals. Incidentally TPP negotiations have taken 7 years so far. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiation is also well advanced.

And will probably be dumped by whoever becomes the next US President.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36368759

[hairybadger]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	On top of this all member states will want to avoid any treaty changes as that would trigger referenda in Denmark, France and Ireland. Now whatever about the first two, the chances of the Irish people accepting a treaty change that would benefit them less than they had before an exit is not very high.

I can't see the Irish being affected much by a possible Brexit. The agreements between the UK and Ireland regarding FMOP predate the EU, as do the Common Travel Area, common voting rights etc. Of course - all bets are off when push comes to shove

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	It is difficult, practically impossible, these days to make a new free trade agreement that does not impact sovereignty Look at the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement (TPP); documents from TPP negotiations reveals that the deal would empower foreign corporations to skirt domestic courts and directly challenge health, environmental and other public interest policies before extra-judicial foreign tribunals. Incidentally TPP negotiations have taken 7 years so far. The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership negotiation is also well advanced.

TPP is an investor state dispute settlement treaty, not a trade agreement.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	marton
	deal would empower foreign corporations to skirt domestic courts and directly challenge health, environmental and other public interest policies before extra-judicial foreign tribunals

attributes the EU and ISDS treaties share and a key reason I am against both.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	hairybadger
	I can't see the Irish being affected much by a possible Brexit. The agreements between the UK and Ireland regarding FMOP predate the EU, as do the Common Travel Area, common voting rights etc. Of course - all bets are off when push comes to shove

Ireland would have the only land border between the UK and the EU.
I've yet to see anyone come up with a reasonable and timely solution as to how this border would be operated.

	Quote:
	Mr Ahern said: "We'd be the only place that has a land border with Britain - of course others would exploit and expose it. They'd have to check people." Mr Ahern went on: "From a trade point of view it would be a customs border - it's regressive, negative." But Mrs Villiers, a Brexit campaigner, told Sky News that no changes to border arrangements would be needed.

http://news.sky.com/story/1680182/ir...scaremongering

[marton]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	TPP is an investor state dispute settlement treaty, not a trade agreement.

From the BBC "The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is one of the most ambitious free trade agreements ever signed."

Source

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a trade agreement among twelve Pacific Rim countries

Source

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) writes the rules for global trade

Source

The Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP) is a free trade agreement
between 12 Asia-Pacific countries

Source

Sigh.....

[Pachyderm]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	It's not about a plan, it is about a direction. The choice we have is whether we want to be in a European Federal Superstate or outside of it. There's no plan or deadline for how the EU federal superstate will come either, it is also just a direction, except with the twist that we would not be the ones in control of it, but instead we will be dragged along with the tide of QMV. The French and Germans make no secret about ever closer union, yet the remain crowd cling onto the belief that we will remain with the status quo. The future within the EU and the road to a EU superstate is also a huge unknown, it is just that people get used to it as it is introduced gradually. For me this is a pivotal moment in British history, it will be the UK's chance to leave a bureaucratic, protectionist customs union (which as aspirations of monetary, fiscal and political union) to chart its own way, as it has done successfully for many centuries. It's normal to experience trepidation at change and the unknown, but Britain has faced it in the past and thrived and it will do so again as long as the people are not afraid to give it a try and take this first step to freedom and self-determination.

Step forward and take a bow, the Churchill of the English Forum. Bravo! Where's that ballot paper...?

[dodgyken]

I am seeking some clarity on this whole Brexit referendum thing.

If I represented a working couple from somewhere working class, living in a working class type of house, with a working class sized television, a working class car, partial to a few working class pints with working class mates down the working mens club and shopping in working class shops buying working class clothes, I'd want the key question answered:

Would the cost of 8 pints of a lager and all day breakfast in the "Tower of London" pub in some working class resort on the Costas be more expensive if Brexit or Bremain??

[Cata1yst]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Ireland would have the only land border between the UK and the EU. I've yet to see anyone come up with a reasonable and timely solution as to how this border would be operated. http://news.sky.com/story/1680182/ir...scaremongering

As a border?

Then again it would go against the free travel / movement principle (much older than the EU) between the UK and Ireland. Saying that who cares, we need to police that border better now the guys are finished playing terrorists they're making a killing out of smuggling both ways.