The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Jim2007
	An interesting comment here from Michel Barnier: Source This would appear to be a very different perspective than what the UK have. And certainly no possibility of the UK parliament voting on the final deal before they leave.

I suspect Michel Barnier will end up eating these words. Of course the UK will end up getting offered a bespoke deal, it's ridiculous to suggest that there's only two off the shelf options available, neither of which are very suitable for the UK's largely service based economy. This is posturing and nothing more.

It's always telling when Barnier says one thing and member states say something else. The second biggest issue the UK will have to face in these negotiations behind the chaos going on in Westminster will be that the EU will be more politically than pragmatically driven when setting out their positions. Another good reason the UK left.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Of course the UK will end up getting offered a bespoke deal

Don't these krauts and cheese-eating surrender monkeys know their place? What ho!

	Quote:
	Don't these krauts and cheese-eating surrender monkeys know their place? What ho!

Zzzzzzz

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I suspect Michel Barnier will end up eating these words. Of course the UK will end up getting offered a bespoke deal, it's ridiculous to suggest that there's only two off the shelf options available, neither of which are very suitable for the UK's largely service based economy. This is posturing and nothing more. It's always telling when Barnier says one thing and member states say something else. The second biggest issue the UK will have to face in these negotiations behind the chaos going on in Westminster will be that the EU will be more politically than pragmatically driven when setting out their positions. Another good reason the UK left.

Offering only two off the shelf options is pragmatic, not posturing, since the UK wants a quick deal so as not to leave the EU without a deal in place.

Obviously a bespoke deal which covers the UK services is the best option but how many years will that take? Especially as the UK has not negotiated a free trade agreement for 40 years and probably also does not have a team of experienced trade negotiators.

One for people blaming the OAPs for Brexit. In Italy it's the young that are more inclined to be Eurosceptic. I imagine this pattern may be reflected across more southern European countries, who have been hurt most by EU fiscal policies and which have large amounts of youth unemployment.

Another handy infographic showing EU countries stances on various Brexit issues:

	Quote:	Loz1983
	One for people blaming the OAPs for Brexit.

Using statistics for Italy as a counterargument for people blaming OAPs in the UK for Brexit has to be one of your more bizarre pronouncements. Well, probably not actually, but it's a doozy nonetheless!

	Quote:
	Using statistics for Italy as a counterargument for people blaming OAPs in the UK for Brexit has to be one of your more bizarre pronouncements. Well, probably not actually, but it's a doozy nonetheless!

How so? It's not a counter argument, it's an interesting poll that shows a contrary picture to that in the UK. Especially given some of the accusations that have been flung at the over 60s post referendum vote.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I imagine this pattern may be reflected across more southern European countries, who have been hurt most by EU fiscal policies and which have large amounts of youth unemployment.

Then you would imagine wrongly.

Firstly, blaming the over 55 group for brexit based upon a guess at best. We know the voter turn out, but not how each demographic actually voted. There is absolutely no way of knowing that for certain. I know very few leave voters, but they're all in the 30-45 age group.

My experience during Grexit was that the only anti-EU voters I encountered were from the 35-55 group. Right to the wire, I didn't know exactly how that vote would go, but walking around the Athens on the day before the referendum gave me a clear indication that 'Oxi' was getting a lot more public support than 'Nai', with the EPON stand in Syntagma Square having a steady stream of visitors.

The only Nai voters we met were on Aegina. Everyone we met in Crete was strongly Oxi, plus all our family and friends in Athens voted Oxi. Even so, there was a split in the Oxi camp. The youth vote was a rejection of Golden Dawn and vision of a future within the EU, whereas the older vote (in our family at least) was more geared towards the military protection of being part of the EU.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Then you would imagine wrongly. Firstly, blaming the over 55 group for brexit based upon a guess at best. We know the voter turn out, but not how each demographic actually voted. There is absolutely no way of knowing that for certain. I know very few leave voters, but they're all in the 30-45 age group. My experience during Grexit was that the only anti-EU voters I encountered were from the 35-55 group. Right to the wire, I didn't know exactly how that vote would go, but walking around the Athens on the day before the referendum gave me a clear indication that 'Oxi' was getting a lot more public support than 'Nai', with the EPON stand in Syntagma Square having a steady stream of visitors. The only Nai voters we met were on Aegina. Everyone we met in Crete was strongly Oxi, plus all our family and friends in Athens voted Oxi. Even so, there was a split in the Oxi camp. The youth vote was a rejection of Golden Dawn and vision of a future within the EU, whereas the older vote (in our family at least) was more geared towards the military protection of being part of the EU.

Funny thing about that vote though is they made such a big thing about holding it, only for Tsipras to completely ignore the result.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	How so? It's not a counter argument, it's an interesting poll that shows a contrary picture to that in the UK.

Valid point...

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Especially given some of the accusations that have been flung at the over 60s post referendum vote.

...which you just invalidated.

[Blueangel]

It was the EU that ignored the result, same as they've ignored the result of the 2014 Swiss referendum on FMOP, and until that Swiss issue is resolved, I fail to see how the UK can have a bespoke fart never mind a bespoke deal.

[Blueangel]

Just announced:

	Quote:
	The IMF has downgraded its forecast for UK economic growth. The Fund expects growth of 1.6% this year, down slightly from its previous forecast of 1.7%. It expects growth to slow further next year, to 1.5%.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-42424700

	Quote:	Blueangel
	It was the EU that ignored the result, same as they've ignored the result of the 2014 Swiss referendum on FMOP, and until that Swiss issue is resolved, I fail to see how the UK can have a bespoke fart never mind a bespoke deal.

They didn't ignore it. Switzerland was given a clear message that no FMOP = No single market membership. Switzerland was correctly left to decide how to deal with the issue internally. Which we did, even though the SVP are not exactly happy with the result.

Opinion polls seem to indicate the populace in general is accepting, though.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Opinion polls seem to indicate the populace in general is accepting, though.

Last I read, which was several months ago now, was that it was going to a second referendum. Is that not happening now?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I suspect Michel Barnier will end up eating these words. Of course the UK will end up getting offered a bespoke deal, it's ridiculous to suggest that there's only two off the shelf options available, neither of which are very suitable for the UK's largely service based economy. This is posturing and nothing more.

I think Theresa May can afford to become tone-deaf to EU bureaucrats and address German and French industrial interests directly over their heads. I suspect that is what will essentially happen anyway. Just start addressing industrial interests directly, and say "yeah, whatever" to EU bureaucrats in the meantime.

	Quote:	Phos
	I think Theresa May can afford to become tone-deaf to EU bureaucrats and address German and French industrial interests directly over their heads. I suspect that is what will essentially happen anyway. Just start addressing industrial interests directly, and say "yeah, whatever" to EU bureaucrats in the meantime.

Although it won't happen like this, the result will essentially be the same. Barnier is simply there to ensure whatever deal is agreed will not encourage others to leave. Barnier goal is purely political. Individual countries however will want a deal has the least impact as possible on them. This is where things will get interesting, especially as the EU states most exposed to Brexit are the larger ones.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Although it won't happen like this, the result will essentially be the same. Barnier is simply there to ensure whatever deal is agreed will not encourage others to leave. Barnier goal is purely political. Individual countries however will want a deal has the least impact as possible on them. This is where things will get interesting, especially as the EU states most exposed to Brexit are the larger ones.

Barnier was reported to have been chastised as a loose canon by Juncker himself for the outburst.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/517579...esa-may-trade/

I think they recognize that such political rhetoric is meaningless and counter-productive. The more they blurt out such things, the more credibility they lose down the road.

I think the UK can start driving a wedge between EU interests and national interests.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Phos
	Just start addressing industrial interests directly, and say "yeah, whatever" to EU bureaucrats in the meantime.

	Quote:	Phos
	Barnier was reported to have been chastised as a loose canon by Juncker himself for the outburst. https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/517579...esa-may-trade/ I think they recognize that such political rhetoric is meaningless and counter-productive. The more they blurt out such things, the more credibility they lose down the road. I think the UK can start driving a wedge between EU interests and national interests.

That's what's been weird about all Barnier's comments in recent weeks. He's not yet even been given his orders from the EU council over their position for the next round of talks, which he'll have to adhere to. At the moment he's just going off on one.