The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	Loz1983
	That's what's been weird about all Barnier's comments in recent weeks. He's not yet even been given his orders from the EU council over their position for the next round of talks, which he'll have to adhere to. At the moment he's just going off on one.

Barnier, in typical EU delusion, believes himself to be more important than France and Germany. LOL.

Wankers. Just say "yeah, whatever".

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I suspect Michel Barnier will end up eating these words. Of course the UK will end up getting offered a bespoke deal, it's ridiculous to suggest that there's only two off the shelf options available, neither of which are very suitable for the UK's largely service based economy. This is posturing and nothing more.

Ya Ya, just like you expected they'd do so well in the first round....

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Ya Ya, just like you expected they'd do so well in the first round....

You really reckon the UK will end up only getting offered either Canada or Norway model, take it or leave it?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phos
	Barnier, in typical EU delusion, believes himself to be more important than France and Germany. LOL.

Unlike Davis, Barnier tends to be very much on the money. 15mins to agree the scope of the first round, 14 seconds to agree the UK had not reached the required level, one meeting already on agreeing the trade terms and I say the 27 have already agreed what is going to be on offer.

In other news the EU has triggered Article 7 against Poland today. Will be interesting to see what effect, if any, this will have. Poland's close Visegrád ties will ensure that nothing of any significance can really happen. It seems the EU is impotent to do anything more.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	In other news the EU has triggered Article 7 against Poland today. Will be interesting to see what effect, if any, this will have. Poland's close Visegrád ties will ensure that nothing of any significance can really happen. It seems the EU is impotent to do anything more.

Actually not the EU but the Commission.

In the past, the EU was largely ruled by concensus, and debates sometimes raged on into mind-numbing pedantry just to make sure everybody was on board. Mrs Thatcher of course was among those who used that shamelessly to carve out special deals.

But for all the faults of the old style, the new style based on threats and bullying is far worse. Too much consensus can be a handicap, but too much authoritarianism is outright dangerous.

But that said, and for the reasons you state, this will probably come to nothing. So why is the EU sabre rattling over an empty threat? It's just one massive power trip. Maybe it's like in pre Bresit days. We can do what we want, they say. People will never get so fed up that they will want to leave.

Leaning from recent history is not really their thing.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Last I read, which was several months ago now, was that it was going to a second referendum. Is that not happening now?

The definitive order has been given by the SVP delegates in June. Now the actual text (change of the constitution) needs to be worked out, then signatures collected, potentially a counterporposal by the Bundesrat, debate in both parliament chambers, and the vote.

This can easily take five or six years, no less than four, and that's assuming the Initiative is launched reasonably soon. Considering the SVP wouldn't have taken that decision had not the AUNS already decided on launching one (by which they would have seized the SVP's core and pet topic), they may indeed take their time.

	Quote:	amogles
	But that said, and for the reasons you state, this will probably come to nothing. So why is the EU sabre rattling over an empty threat? It's just one massive power trip. Maybe it's like in pre Bresit days. We can do what we want, they say. People will never get so fed up that they will want to leave. Leaning from recent history is not really their thing.

Sounds like a stupid way for the EU to shoot itself in the foot again, but may they go at it nevertheless. They need unanimous consent for Article 7, which they will not get?

Uncle Donald was in Poland recently lending moral support. He said they were amazing people.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	Sounds like a stupid way for the EU to shoot itself in the foot again, but may they go at it nevertheless. They need unanimous consent for Article 7, which they will not get? Uncle Donald was in Poland recently lending moral support. He said they were amazing people.

Why do you mislead EF members with statements that are not supported by facts?

A majority of four fifths of EU members is sufficient for Article 7(1)?

	Quote:	marton
	Why do you mislead EF members with statements that are not supported by facts? A majority of four fifths of EU members is sufficient for Article 7(1)?

Do you not see a question mark there? Let me show you:

	Quote:	Phos
	Sounds like a stupid way for the EU to shoot itself in the foot again, but may they go at it nevertheless. They need unanimous consent for Article 7, which they will not get? Uncle Donald was in Poland recently lending moral support. He said they were amazing people.

In any case, its not like this will lead to anywhere but proving the EU's inadequacies again.

	Quote:	marton
	Why do you mislead EF members with statements that are not supported by facts? A majority of four fifths of EU members is sufficient for Article 7(1)?

Depends. 4/5ths for a warning but unanimous for suspension of voting rights.

"At least 22 of the 28 member states will now need to vote in favour of the commission’s proposal for a formal warning, but Brussels is confident it has the numbers.

The most serious sanction possible under article 7 would be to suspend the member state of its voting rights in EU institutions and suspend EU financial transfers, but that would require unanimity among the member states in a subsequent vote. Hungary’s rightwing government has insisted it would never support such a move."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-voting-rights

	Quote:	amogles
	Actually not the EU but the Commission. In the past, the EU was largely ruled by concensus, and debates sometimes raged on into mind-numbing pedantry just to make sure everybody was on board. Mrs Thatcher of course was among those who used that shamelessly to carve out special deals. But for all the faults of the old style, the new style based on threats and bullying is far worse. Too much consensus can be a handicap, but too much authoritarianism is outright dangerous. But that said, and for the reasons you state, this will probably come to nothing. So why is the EU sabre rattling over an empty threat? It's just one massive power trip. Maybe it's like in pre Bresit days. We can do what we want, they say. People will never get so fed up that they will want to leave. Leaning from recent history is not really their thing.

The thing is, all this will do is galvanise support for the government in Poland. Just like in Hungary when there was pressure against Orban. Eastern Europeans are very proud and nationalistic and will see this as an attack on their country. If this is to be the outcome, makes you wonder why bother in the first place?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The thing is, all this will do is galvanise support for the government in Poland. Just like in Hungary when there was pressure against Orban. Eastern Europeans are very proud and nationalistic and will see this as an attack on their country. If this is to be the outcome, makes you wonder why bother in the first place?

Its retribution for refusing migrants, isn't it? Which is really an abuse of power when they are not able to reason things through. Typical bullying tactic. I'm just surprise other countries can be bought and go along with bs.

[marton]

	Quote:
	Depends. 4/5ths for a warning but unanimous for suspension of voting rights. "At least 22 of the 28 member states will now need to vote in favour of the commission’s proposal for a formal warning, but Brussels is confident it has the numbers. The most serious sanction possible under article 7 would be to suspend the member state of its voting rights in EU institutions and suspend EU financial transfers, but that would require unanimity among the member states in a subsequent vote. Hungary’s rightwing government has insisted it would never support such a move." https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-voting-rights

"The most serious sanction possible under article 7 would be to suspend the member state of its voting rights in EU institutions " That is article 7(2), I was posting about 7(1).
I do not see how one would get unanimity among the member states in a subsequent vote when surely Poland would not vote so?

	Quote:	Phos
	Its retribution for refusing migrants, isn't it? Which is really an abuse of power when they are not able to reason things through. Typical bullying tactic. I'm just surprise other countries can be bought and go along with bs.

Not really, it's a potential sanction for breaking the rules. Poland's government isn't the victim here, it is the culprit. It's certainly sod all to do with your perceived EU grudge against their refugee intake, you are once more conflating two things to bash the EU.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Why do you mislead EF members with statements that are not supported by facts?

At this stage I doubt there are many people left who take comments from
Loz1983 or Phos very seriously.

	Quote:
	Not really, it's a potential sanction for breaking the rules. Poland's government isn't the victim here, it is the culprit. It's certainly sod all to do with your perceived EU grudge against their refugee intake, you are once more conflating two things to bash the EU.

My perceived EU grudge is based on their real grudge against Visigrad states for low migrant intake.
http://www.dw.com/en/eu-sues-czech-r...ake/a-41691870

	Quote:	Phos
	My perceived EU grudge is based on their real grudge against Visigrad states for low migrant intake. http://www.dw.com/en/eu-sues-czech-r...ake/a-41691870

Even this they can't agree on. Tusk wants to get rid of quotas as they're not working.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The thing is, all this will do is galvanise support for the government in Poland. Just like in Hungary when there was pressure against Orban. Eastern Europeans are very proud and nationalistic and will see this as an attack on their country. If this is to be the outcome, makes you wonder why bother in the first place?

yes, and in that repsct I think the Poles are even tougher and more nationalistic than the Hunagrians.

Hungarian nationalism is mostly a matter of political expeditiousness. They used to rule an empire and had no qualms about adopting and borrowing stuff from the countries they ruled. They have loads of ethic, linguistic and religious miinorities even today. If you look at their history, their ancestors came from all over, including central Asia, and their culture still shows it. So they're not really nationslistic at all in the old school racialist sense but just a mixture of patriotic and easily excited. Oh yes, and they have a natural distrust of authority and hate being told what to do. The showdown between Hungary and the EU might have come out quite differently if only the EU had done their homework and played their cards more smartly. But the EU wouldn't listen to reason and insisted on digging its own hole on that one. All that Orban had to do was hand them a nice big spade.

Poland, on the other hand, is deeply religious about being nationalistic. The EU is really playing a dangerous game if they want to light that fuse.

Sounds to me they held on to a sense of self-preservation and not buy into Western Europe's suicidal self-sterilization bent.

May they be fruitful and multiply!