The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH - Page 55

zurich99 · #**1081** 02.06.2016, 22:25

Most of my Friends and family all want to leave but will most likely vote to remain.
Heart says leave but the brain says stay...

Blueangel · #**1082** 02.06.2016, 22:35

	Quote:	curley
	This mess with people getting poll cards without being British ..... or under all the names they ever had in life (woman) ..... is that normal in Britain?? This vote will represent absolutely nothing and would have to be repeated in a third world country ....do we all need to send scrutineers?

I've moved a few times in the last three years and I've been told that the new place where you pay council tax and register to vote, is supposed to inform the previous council of the change. So, it appears that Windsor didn't inform Wigan of the name change and move to their electoral register, which is weird because my council tax in Wigan is in the right name (because I did that myself), so it's just the electoral register that wasn't updated. I have to have my postal vote with Windsor because it's the last place I lived even though my house is in Wigan. Confusing enough for you?

	Quote:	lewton
	Basically this is the main reason why I want Brexit to happen. The EU establishment needs a shock, and I'd rather it was a Brexit than Marine for president.

Either way, the far right is rubbing it's hands with glee at the prospect. Even Golden Dawn are hoping for Brexit.

Give me two minutes in a darkened room with those *************

Pachyderm · #**1083** 03.06.2016, 00:14

	Quote:	Blueangel
	...Either way, the far right is rubbing it's hands with glee at the prospect. Even Golden Dawn are hoping for Brexit.

A lot of people are hoping for Brexit -- the so-called "far right", the nearer right, the pretty close right, the centre-right...

and also plenty of people on the left like about 30% of Labour MPs, a number of prominent trade unions, and TUSC (the socialist successors to the old SWP). My brother is an unreconstructed hardline socialist and he is desperate for Leave as he thinks the EU leadership is a secret club of wealthy financiers and businesspeople.

curley · #**1084** 03.06.2016, 00:19

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I've moved a few times in the last three years and I've been told that the new place where you pay council tax and register to vote, is supposed to inform the previous council of the change. So, it appears that Windsor didn't inform Wigan of the name change and move to their electoral register, which is weird because my council tax in Wigan is in the right name (because I did that myself), so it's just the electoral register that wasn't updated. I have to have my postal vote with Windsor because it's the last place I lived even though my house is in Wigan. Confusing enough for you?

Absolutely. So I suppose the population in GB 2013 was not - as indicated - 64.1 million but at the most half of it as they tend to count their people double or tripple.

Sbrinz · #**1085** 03.06.2016, 01:39

Our poll at the top of the page is running at
stay 96
leave 51
don't care 27

which is nowhere near the current polls in the UK,
stay 44
leave 44
don't know 12

At the Scottish referendum we were close to the result, but not this time.

AbFab · #**1086** 03.06.2016, 07:48

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Our poll at the top of the page is running at stay 96 leave 51 don't care 27 which is nowhere near the current polls in the UK, stay 44 leave 44 don't know 12 At the Scottish referendum we were close to the result, but not this time.

The difference is we have 6 options, in the real world there are only two: "in", "out" with no "shake it all about".

I would take "I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU" as an "out" as that in reality is what an "out" vote means...

dodgyken · #**1087** 03.06.2016, 07:54

	Quote:	AbFab
	The difference is we have 6 options, in the real world there are only two: "in", "out" with no "shake it all about". I would take "I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU" as an "out" as that in reality is what an "out" vote means...

I remember the presentation of an employee engagement survey - the questions read similar to:
"I find working at xxxxxx to be highly rewarding"
"I find the management of xxxx to have a clear strategy which is well communicated"
"I feel valued in xxxxxx"

etc etc - you get the picture

Anyway, they could all be answered with "Strongly Agree/ Agree/Neither Agree or Disagree/Disagree/Strongly Disagree" options.

Typically the spread of answers was something like 10/20/30/25/15% (respecitively). This meant quite clearly that 30% agreed, 30% were "egal" and 40% disagreed.

The problem was that you can't tell management that and so the headlines became:

"60% of people didn't disagree with the statement I find working at xxxxxx to be highly rewarding"
"60% of people didn't disagree with the statement I find the management of xxxx to have a clear strategy which is well communicated"
"60% of people didn't disagree with the statement I feel valued in xxxxxx"

Complete with a presentation showing the percentages, so that even the fumbest of ducks realized which direction the results were actually skewed.

Belgianmum · #**1088** 03.06.2016, 07:59

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Our poll at the top of the page is running at stay 96 leave 51 don't care 27 which is nowhere near the current polls in the UK, stay 44 leave 44 don't know 12 At the Scottish referendum we were close to the result, but not this time.

The poll was posted back in February and once you've made a choice you can't change your vote so it's probably not a true reflection on how people will vote.
It probably also has a lot of votes from people who are not even British and/or are eligible to vote.

A new poll now with the in or out options would probably be closer to actual situation at the moment.

Pachyderm · #**1089** 03.06.2016, 08:10

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	At the Scottish referendum we were close to the result, but not this time.

To be fair (and it's been mentioned before), the EF poll bears no resemblance to the referendum question. There is no ballot question asking if we want to stay in a loosely connected EU!

I might well prefer to stay in a loosely connected EU but because that option isn't on the table, I will vote Leave. But I presume you would be counting me as a Remainer. (Edit - I belatedly see that AbFab makes a similar point.)

In any case, we wouldn't expect a group of expats to be a representative cross-section of the UK on a question like this. To be honest I'm surprised at how many of us support / plan to vote Leave. I'd have presumed a stronger Remain sentiment.

Pachyderm · #**1090** 03.06.2016, 08:13

	Quote:	Belgianmum
	The poll was posted back in February and once you've made a choice you can't change your vote so it's probably not a true reflection on how people will vote. It probably also has a lot of votes from people who are not even British and/or are eligible to vote. A new poll now with the in or out options would probably be closer to actual situation at the moment.

Yes, I often think it would be better to be able to change poll votes like this in case the arguments presented change your view over a period.

marton · #**1091** 03.06.2016, 08:17

	Quote:	Pachyderm
	To be fair (and it's been mentioned before), the EF poll bears no resemblance to the referendum question. There is no ballot question asking if we want to stay in a loosely connected EU! I might well prefer to stay in a loosely connected EU but because that option isn't on the table, I will vote Leave. But I presume you would be counting me as a Remainer. (Edit - I belatedly see that AbFab makes a similar point.) In any case, we wouldn't expect a group of expats to be a representative cross-section of the UK on a question like this. To be honest I'm surprised at how many of us support / plan to vote Leave. I'd have presumed a stronger Remain sentiment.

"To be honest I'm surprised at how many of us support / plan to vote Leave. "
Well for us it is risk free; if Leave wins and in the worst case the UK economy crashes then our Swiss francs will be worth a lot more UK£ should we return home

#**1092** 03.06.2016, 08:57

I've created an updated poll to get a more accurate reflection of the current mood here: British exit from the EU: updated poll June 3rd

#**1093** 03.06.2016, 09:51

Interesting piece in yesterday's FT on how several hedge funds have commissioned their own exit polls to try to make a killing on the pound in the event of an exit vote. Current thinking is that the market is expecting a remain vote and this is discounted into exchange rates - in the event of an exit vote the pound will tank big time.

Shows what money really thinks about the economic consequences of the vote.

Phil_MCR · #**1094** 03.06.2016, 09:51

Also this: Brexit - did your vote change

Phil_MCR · #**1095** 03.06.2016, 09:55

	Quote:
	Interesting piece in yesterday's FT on how several hedge funds have commissioned their own exit polls to try to make a killing on the pound in the event of an exit vote. Current thinking is that the market is expecting a remain vote and this is discounted into exchange rates - in the event of an exit vote the pound will tank big time. Shows what money really thinks about the economic consequences of the vote.

I expect it to tank ahead of the polls in any case and recover afterwards. There's always value in being the first to know something...

fatmanfilms · #**1096** 03.06.2016, 09:58

	Quote:
	Shows what money really thinks about the economic consequences of the vote.

I don't think it does, it just shows what the market will say tomorrow, not what the market will say in 3 months time.

The market is a voting machine in the short term, but a weighting machine long term, what it does tomorrow means nothing at all.

curley · #**1097** 03.06.2016, 10:00

	Quote:	Belgianmum
	The poll was posted back in February and once you've made a choice you can't change your vote so it's probably not a true reflection on how people will vote. It probably also has a lot of votes from people who are not even British and/or are eligible to vote.

Just like RL then

	Quote:	Belgianmum
	A new poll now with the in or out options would probably be closer to actual situation at the moment.

It would actually be very interesting to have a second one - next to the this one - to see the difference/if people changed their minds/this discussion had any effect. Guess that's not possible in this software?

Already done, cool. As I can't vote in RL I'll keep out of it :-)

lewton · #**1098** 03.06.2016, 10:05

I also wanted to create a new poll with these options.
If you like it we can still do it.

I am eligible to vote - I will vote Remain.
I am eligible to vote - I will vote Leave.
I am eligible to vote - I will abstain.
I am from another EU country or CH - I want the UK to stay.
I am from another EU country or CH - I want the UK to leave.
I am from another EU country or CH - I don't care.
I am from another country - I want the UK to stay.
I am from another country - I want the UK to leave.
I am from another country - I don't care.

hairybadger · #**1099** 03.06.2016, 10:10

	Quote:	lewton
	I also wanted to create a new poll with these options. If you like it we can still do it. .........

I am eligible to vote - I will vote Remain, but my heart isn't in it

curley · #**1100** 03.06.2016, 10:11

	Quote:	lewton
	I also wanted to create a new poll with these options. If you like it we can still do it. I am eligible to vote - I will vote Remain. I am eligible to vote - I will vote Leave. I am eligible to vote - I will abstain. I am from another EU country or CH - I want the UK to stay. I am from another EU country or CH - I want the UK to leave. I am from another EU country or CH - I don't care. I am from another country - I want the UK to stay. I am from another country - I want the UK to leave. I am from another country - I don't care.

Excuse me, CH belongs to "another country", I insist!