The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Chuff]

	Quote:	marton
	Rearrange the following into a well known phrase or saying! "straws at clutching"

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Naa mate, Switzerland have already made clear that they intend to keep up exactly the same relationship that's already in place with the UK. The advantage of not being in the EU means they can make this decision themselves.

Ouch marton, you just got made to look very silly.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Naa mate, Switzerland have already made clear that they intend to keep up exactly the same relationship that's already in place with the UK. The advantage of not being in the EU means they can make this decision themselves.

Agree.

Buuut, call me sceptical:

	Quote:
	"...wishes to ensure..."

is a bit of a cop-out isn't it?

I wouldn't want any agreement where the most important subject of it is under a "wish to ensure" kind of one-foot-in-the-door sentiment.

[pdofr]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	We're in non EU Switzerland. Sorted.

The "I'm alright, Jack" attitude again.

The less short sighted of us wonder about knock-on effects and unintended consequences.

Be careful what you wish for.

Edit: added "and unintended consequences"

[marton]

	Quote:	Chuff
	Ouch marton, you just got made to look very silly.

	Quote:
	Agree. Buuut, call me sceptical: is a bit of a cop-out isn't it? I wouldn't want any agreement where the most important subject of it is under a "wish to ensure" kind of one-foot-in-the-door sentiment.

You know the old expression
"If wishes were horses then beggars would ride"

	Quote:
	The [Swiss] Federal Council has been closely following the events in the UK for several months and is evaluating the ramifications for Switzerland. At present, many questions remain unanswered. The Federal Council, the Federal Administration and the Embassy of Switzerland in London are in regular contact with the British government to discuss the next steps. In the context of the Federal Council’s ‘mind the gap’ strategy, Switzerland will endeavour to safeguard the existing mutual rights and obligations between Switzerland and the UK after the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, and if possible to build on them.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Naa mate, Switzerland have already made clear that they intend to keep up exactly the same relationship that's already in place with the UK. The advantage of not being in the EU means they can make this decision themselves.

That's useless.

As long as the UK is EU member there can not be any negotiations with 3rd party countries, which of course also applies to Switzerland. Full stop. The only conclusion is that at most there have been, and will be until Brexit has happened, informal talks but that's just that, informal and of course completely non-binding.

So what you have so far is the Swiss position. But keeping the status quo runs counter to UK's demand to control immigration so obviuosly the regime will change. That in turn means one doesn't know what rules will apply post-Brexit.

Heck, you don't even know whether the UK will stay true to what has been agreed to under the Bilaterale, in particular that people will keep rights they already acquired under the Bilaterale!

During the Brexit campaign, Boris Johnson expressed his wishes that £350m a week was diverted from the EU coffers and into the NHS. He has stated on many occasions he will endeavour to do so.

Do you see?

	Quote:	pdofr
	The "I'm alright, Jack" attitude again. The less short sighted of us wonder about knock-on effects and unintended consequences. Be careful what you wish for. Edit: added "and unintended consequences"

Yes, I'm alright, Jack. Why should I be concerned about some booze riddled expat on the Cost del Sol?

	Quote:	Urs Max
	That's useless. As long as the UK is EU member there can not be any negotiations with 3rd party countries, which of course also applies to Switzerland. Full stop. The only conclusion is that at most there have been, and will be until Brexit has happened, informal talks but that's just that, informal and of course completely non-binding. So what you have so far is the Swiss position. But keeping the status quo runs counter to UK's demand to control immigration so obviuosly the regime will change. That in turn means one doesn't know what rules will apply post-Brexit. Heck, you don't even know whether the UK will stay true to what has been agreed to under the Bilaterale, in particular that people will keep rights they already acquired under the Bilaterale!

A clear set out negotiating position that's favourable to the UK is not useless.

[Reb77Br]

This report, specifically the sentence in bold below, was mentioned on the news this morning. It seems to have been published last year.

British Social Attitudes 34

"Our analysis suggests that the idea that the referendum was a lightning rod for a rising ‘anti-politics’ tide is wide of the mark. People’s level of trust in government at most played only a minor role in influencing how they voted. Instead, the result reflected the concerns of older, more ‘authoritarian’ or social conservative voters who were particularly worried about immigration. Any suggestion that immigration was not at the heart of this vote runs counter to what we have found."

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Yes, I'm alright, Jack. Why should I be concerned about some booze riddled expat on the Cost del Sol?

You might spare a thought for any British EF colleagues facing an uncertain future.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	A clear set out negotiating position that's favourable to the UK is not useless.

So it is just a negotiating position, nothing is agreed?

What a surprise

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	A clear set out negotiating position that's favourable to the UK is not useless.

Even with the best will in the world, the Swiss will find it very difficult to grant the UK any concessions beyond that granted to other countries, as all the rest will demand the same. And there is still the EU bilateral giving preference to EU/EEA citizens.

And given all the trade deals the UK need to put in place, it remains to be seen where Switzerland will be on the list.

All the Brexit negotiations appear to be about how to bind the UK's arms and legs after it leaves. LOL.

Because if you haven't noticed, should the UK heavily deregulate and slash taxes, the EU would not be able to compete. Such a UK would be the EU's worse nightmare, yet it would be the UK's best interests in terms of fitness and form.

I don't think the EU can survive in such a competitive environment. They can pussyfoot around for a while, but that is what it will come to in the end.

There is absolutely no need for the UK to sell itself short here. It holds the upper hand in this. With that in mind, it can even demand things now if May were only wise enough.

MUKGA!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phos
	Because if you haven't noticed, should the UK heavily deregulate and slash taxes, the EU would not be able to compete. Such a UK would be the EU's worse nightmare, yet it would be the UK's best interests in terms of fitness and form.

Well gee, I did not think traveling by boat and trading with the 12 none WTO island nations had much of a future myself, but of course you are entitled to your opinion no matter how far from reality it might be.

[marton]

	Quote:	Phos
	All the Brexit negotiations appear to be about how to bind the UK's arms and legs after it leaves. LOL. Because if you haven't noticed, should the UK heavily deregulate and slash taxes, the EU would not be able to compete. Such a UK would be the EU's worse nightmare, yet it would be the UK's best interests in terms of fitness and form. I don't think the EU can survive in such a competitive environment. They can pussyfoot around for a while, but that is what it will come to in the end. There is absolutely no need for the UK to sell itself short here. It holds the upper hand in this. With that in mind, it can even demand things now if May were only wise enough. MUKGA!

Corporation tax in the EU member Ireland is 12.5%

Corporation tax in UK is 19%, reduced from 28%. How low can UK go and would Ireland also reduce.

UK slashing taxes is not really a viable strategy

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Even with the best will in the world, the Swiss will find it very difficult to grant the UK any concessions beyond that granted to other countries, as all the rest will demand the same. And there is still the EU bilateral giving preference to EU/EEA citizens. And given all the trade deals the UK need to put in place, it remains to be seen where Switzerland will be on the list.

"to grant the UK any concessions beyond that granted to other countries," Exactly, many deals have that nasty clause that a country that has been accorded most favoured nation (MFN) status may not be treated less advantageously than any other country with MFN status by the promising country.

[FrankZappa]

	Quote:	Phos
	All the Brexit negotiations appear to be about how to bind the UK's arms and legs after it leaves. LOL. Because if you haven't noticed, should the UK heavily deregulate and slash taxes, the EU would not be able to compete. Such a UK would be the EU's worse nightmare, yet it would be the UK's best interests in terms of fitness and form. I don't think the EU can survive in such a competitive environment. They can pussyfoot around for a while, but that is what it will come to in the end. There is absolutely no need for the UK to sell itself short here. It holds the upper hand in this. With that in mind, it can even demand things now if May were only wise enough. MUKGA!

Absolutely spot on! The UK should become a low cost tax haven. That'll teach those pesky Europeans with their idiot socialist ideas and high growth rates.

PS I got the date for my interview to become a French citizen yesterday.

	Quote:	marton
	Corporation tax in the EU member Ireland is 12.5% Corporation tax in UK is 19%, reduced from 28%. How low can UK go and would Ireland also reduce. UK slashing taxes is not really a viable strategy

They certainly can cut to 17%, and even lower on offshore earnings. Its really the regulations where they have the biggest edge over the EU.

They have it backwards. The UK should really be demanding money from the EU to not compete against it. The UK can run circles around the EU should it truly get competitive, which it may very well get. That is where things are headed.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Phos
	They have it backwards. The UK should really be demanding money from the EU to not compete against it. The UK can run circles around the EU should it truly get competitive, which it may very well get. That is where things are headed.

Talk about kindergarten! When you are negotiating with an economic power that dwarfs you, you do not get to play silly buggers.

If the UK were to adapt your childish nonsense then they would find that every single attempt at a trade deal would be torpedoed at the WTO by the EU and no doubt a few others for a start! Hell, the US, New Zealand etc are already complaining about the proposed trade schedule changes never mind this crap.

Mrs. May et al don’t keep turning up at the BREXIT talks because it’s great fun, they do it because they are at least mature enough to know they don’t have much of a choice. Now back to playing with your toys.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Even with the best will in the world, the Swiss will find it very difficult to grant the UK any concessions beyond that granted to other countries, as all the rest will demand the same. And there is still the EU bilateral giving preference to EU/EEA citizens. And given all the trade deals the UK need to put in place, it remains to be seen where Switzerland will be on the list.

Why would any concessions be necessary? At the moment there is a very balanced and fair relationship between the two countries in terms of trade and the number of citizens in the others country. There is no reason not to roll over the current bilaterals. Switzerland has said they’re willing and I would really hope and expect the U.K. would agree too.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Corporation tax in the EU member Ireland is 12.5% Corporation tax in UK is 19%, reduced from 28%. How low can UK go and would Ireland also reduce. UK slashing taxes is not really a viable strategy

Why not? Lower tax rates will see higher revenue, don't you remember what happened in 1979 when income tax was reduced from 98% to 60% in one go?

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Why not? Lower tax rates will see higher revenue, don't you remember what happened in 1979 when income tax was reduced from 98% to 60% in one go?

Yep. In absolute terms national debt doubled from roughly £ 100 billion in '79 to 200 billion by '90. And the continuation of that approach sees it approaching £2 trillion now.

OK, more correctly measured as % of GDP it was roughly stable at 50% through the 80s compared to closing in on 100% now.

Oh and BTW for most income the top rate went from 80% to 60%. 98% only applied to certain classes of unearned income.