The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	baboon
	Yep. In absolute terms it doubled from roughly £ 100 billion in '79 to 200 billion by '90. And the continuation of that approach sees it approaching £2 trillion now. OK, more correctly measured as % of GDP it was roughly stable at 50% through the 80s compared to closing in on 100% now. Oh and BTW for most income the top rate went from 80% to 60%. 98% only applied to certain classes of unearned income.

84% was the top rate for earned income, investment income had a 15% surcharge slightly more than National Insurance contributions that are paid on earnings.

The following year 60% dropped to 40% & the rest is history

[Phos]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Talk about kindergarten! When you are negotiating with an economic power that dwarfs you, you do not get to play silly buggers. If the UK were to adapt your childish nonsense then they would find that every single attempt at a trade deal would be torpedoed at the WTO by the EU and no doubt a few others for a start! Hell, the US, New Zealand etc are already complaining about the proposed trade schedule changes never mind this crap. Mrs. May et al don’t keep turning up at the BREXIT talks because it’s great fun, they do it because they are at least mature enough to know they don’t have much of a choice. Now back to playing with your toys.

Simply a lack of principles and balls. If the UK was led by the likes of Thatcher, Churchill or Trump, it would negotiate much more aggressively and the EU would bend.

The EU will bend. All the posturing is just a show of fake resolve. Because the EU has neither balls nor fortitude. It does not know how to fight. It is not about juvenality, its about balls, principles and resolve.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Phos
	Simply a lack of principles and balls. If the UK was led by the likes of Thatcher, Churchill or Trump, it would negotiate much more aggressively and the EU would bend. The EU will bend. All the posturing is just a show of fake resolve. Because the EU has neither balls nor fortitude. It does not know how to fight. It is not about juvenality, its about balls, principles and resolve.

Thatcher and Churchill were for a unified Europe so that's a dead end, and Trump's a chimp so he doesn't count.

[marton]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	Thatcher and Churchill were for a unified Europe so that's a dead end, and Trump's a chimp so he doesn't count.

Trump history as President is that he does not negotiate, he simply cancels agreements.

[baboon]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	84% was the top rate for earned income, investment income had a 15% surcharge slightly more than National Insurance contributions that are paid on earnings. The following year 60% dropped to 40% & the rest is history

Actually 83% (my memory was also slightly faulty). What you don't mention is that the income tax rate cut was accompanied by an increase in VAT from 8% (12.5% on luxuries) to 15%

Interestingly, the total tax take increased from about 37.5% of GDP in 1975 to 39% in 1985

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	Thatcher and Churchill were for a unified Europe so that's a dead end, and Trump's a chimp so he doesn't count.

Precisement!

Instead we've got May clutching at her oversized, gorilla love bead, pearls, backed by a bunch of feckless gobshites who are too scared for their own future careers to step upto the plate. When the proponents of an idea view it as a poisoned chalice, how can anyone else see it as a 'good idea'. Then we've got a spineless, so called 'leader of the opposition' who's turned into a yes man lap dog chasing his stubby tail. I'd round the buggers up and ship them off to the Falklands for a year or twenty, and let's get some proper ideas people onboard. The system is clogged up with namby pamby, 'never done a proper day's work in their lives' bufoons, who are short of a thrice daily slapping about the mush with a wet halibut!

[marton]

Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, promised last year the government would “replicate” some 40 EU trade agreements to “avoid any disruption in trade”, but industry groups are now expressing growing concern that time is now running out to complete the deals.

Britain is facing the prospect of making painful trade concessions to South Korea in order to ensure business continuity during the Brexit transition period, trade policy experts and business groups have warned.

“Worries are mounting,” said a senior trade lobbyist with knowledge of the government’s negotiation efforts, which are now understood to have narrowed onto focusing primarily on replicating four or five major EU deals, including those with South Africa, Canada, South Korea and Switzerland.

Source

Painful reality dawning?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marten
	Painful reality dawning?

I only need to follow one vital negotiation to clearly see how far behind the game the UK really is

	Quote:
	However, he also issued fresh warnings about the potential impact of Brexit, the shadow of airline protectionism and the self-serving nature of their current campaign for more airport charges regulation.

https://www.internationalairportrevi...an-parliament/

	Quote:
	Ryanair to add Brexit clause to tickets for 2Q19

https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/n...ckets-for-2q19

	Quote:
	In the text of a 24 January speech, shared by the government, he says his optimism stems from knowing that it is in the best interests of all European countries to seek an "open, liberal arrangement for aviation" following the UK's departure from the bloc

https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...n-deal-445205/

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I only need to follow one vital negotiation to clearly see how far behind the game the UK really is https://www.internationalairportrevi...an-parliament/ https://www.ch-aviation.com/portal/n...ckets-for-2q19 https://www.flightglobal.com/news/ar...n-deal-445205/

Thanks

One major concern is that negotiations in many areas have not yet even started and the clock is running.
Basically as was known when Brexit began firstly the UK has practically no experienced trade negotiators and secondly while UK is part of the EU it is banned from negotiating trade deals, finally while the shape of the final agreement (if any) between the UK and the EU is bouncing around all over the place it is not practical to get into detailed discussions with third countries.
Presumably there is nothing to stop the UK having "preliminary" discussions about trade with other countries before Brexit when the situation is clearer?

[pdofr]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Precisement! Instead we've got May clutching at her oversized, gorilla love bead, pearls, backed by a bunch of feckless gobshites who are too scared for their own future careers to step upto the plate. When the proponents of an idea view it as a poisoned chalice, how can anyone else see it as a 'good idea'. Then we've got a spineless, so called 'leader of the opposition' who's turned into a yes man lap dog chasing his stubby tail. I'd round the buggers up and ship them off to the Falklands for a year or twenty, and let's get some proper ideas people onboard. The system is clogged up with namby pamby, 'never done a proper day's work in their lives' bufoons, who are short of a thrice daily slapping about the mush with a wet halibut!

Now, that is what I call a right grand rant.

Well done. It needs saying.

[aSwissInTheUS]

Question, is there any where info or speculation how the Brexit will affect the bilateral agreements between the EU and Switzerland?

Text of the FMOP part can be found here:
http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-conte...01.0006.01.ENG
and here:
https://www.admin.ch/opc/de/classifi...648/index.html

In particualr I, it is interesting to note that the actual contracting parties are as follow:

	Quote:
	Agreement between the European Community and its Member States, of the one part, and the Swiss Confederation, of the other, on the free movement of persons THE SWISS CONFEDERATION, of the one part, and THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY, THE KINGDOM OF BELGIUM, THE KINGDOM OF DENMARK, THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY, THE HELLENIC REPUBLIC, THE KINGDOM OF SPAIN, THE FRENCH REPUBLIC, IRELAND, THE ITALIAN REPUBLIC, THE GRAND DUCHY OF LUXEMBOURG, THE KINGDOM OF THE NETHERLANDS, THE REPUBLIC OF AUSTRIA, THE PORTUGUESE REPUBLIC, THE REPUBLIC OF FINLAND, THE KINGDOM OF SWEDEN, THE UNITED KINGDOM OF GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND, of the other part, hereinafter referred to as "the Contracting Parties",

As one can see it is not the EU consisting of [...], but the EU and [...]. Which would mean that the UK is still a partner after the Brexit.

Unless there is some clause somewhere deep in the bundle of contracts.

It could also mean that the EU may cancel the agreements after Brexit And SVPs wettest dream come true.

[marton]

	Quote:	aSwissInTheUS
	Question, is there any where info or speculation how the Brexit will affect the bilateral agreements between the EU and Switzerland? Text of the FMOP part can be found here: http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-conte...01.0006.01.ENG and here: https://www.admin.ch/opc/de/classifi...648/index.html In particualr I, it is interesting to note that the actual contracting parties are as follow: As one can see it is not the EU consisting of [...], but the EU and [...]. Which would mean that the UK is still a partner after the Brexit. Unless there is some clause somewhere deep in the bundle of contracts. It could also mean that the EU may cancel the agreements after Brexit And SVPs wettest dream come true.

Interesting that the Agreement only quotes the EU15 and not the EU27 so is there a later version somewhere deep in the bundle of contracts? If so, that would demonstrate that as the mix of EU member states changes so is the Agreement updated.

[baboon]

	Quote:	aSwissInTheUS
	....In particualr I, it is interesting to note that the actual contracting parties are as follow: As one can see it is not the EU consisting of [...], but the EU and [...]. Which would mean that the UK is still a partner after the Brexit.....

Actually Article 24 seems to cover it:

	Quote:
	Article 24 Territorial scope This Agreement shall apply, on the one hand, to the territory of Switzerland and, on the other hand, to the territories in which the Treaty establishing the European Community is applicable and under the conditions laid down by that Treaty.

Only covers the EU therefore no longer applies when the Uk leaves the EU.

[aSwissInTheUS]

	Quote:	marton
	Interesting that the Agreement only quotes the EU15 and not the EU27 so is there a later version somewhere deep in the bundle of contracts? If so, that would demonstrate that as the mix of EU member states changes so is the Agreement updated.

There is https://www.admin.ch/opc/de/official...n/2006/995.pdf

The admin.ch link in the previous post links to the consolidated version. It is always a mess and cumbersome to find the actual and consolidated version on EUR-Lex.

Here a list of all agreements between the EU and Switzerland?
https://www.eda.admin.ch/dam/dea/de/...s-liste_de.pdf

[Uncle Max]

	Quote:	pdofr
	Now, that is what I call a right grand rant. Well done. It needs saying.

C‘mon, it‘s a 3/10 rant at best. Failed to address the real problem beyond avaricious politicians stamping out moderate voices: the electorate. The bloody voters. They don‘t know what they want. They light the bloody fires and have the power to extinguish them. Politicians represent 'interests'.

Please can we have a benign alien invasion?

	Quote:	Uncle Max
	C‘mon, it‘s a 3/10 rant at best. Failed to address the real problem beyond avaricious politicians stamping out moderate voices: the electorate. The bloody voters. They don‘t know what they want. They light the bloody fires and have the power to extinguish them. Politicians represent 'interests'. Please can we have a benign alien invasion?

Nevermind. Corbyn will win before too long and then we'll get to see what a real ochlocracy is. Can't wait.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	Thatcher and Churchill were for a unified Europe so that's a dead end, and Trump's a chimp so he doesn't count.

Thatcher and Churchill would have negotiated for a united Europe on their terms. And they were convincing enough as negotiators to have got it.

Cameron just went to Brussels with his demands, and came home thinking "no" was a good enough answer.

Big difference.

[marton]

	Quote:	Uncle Max
	C‘mon, it‘s a 3/10 rant at best. Failed to address the real problem beyond avaricious politicians stamping out moderate voices: the electorate. The bloody voters. They don‘t know what they want. They light the bloody fires and have the power to extinguish them. Politicians represent 'interests'. Please can we have a benign alien invasion?

Wot, more immigrants with another religion

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Uncle Max
	C‘mon, it‘s a 3/10 rant at best

Cheeky bugger. I was stone cold sober

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Nevermind. Corbyn will win before too long and then we'll get to see what a real ochlocracy is. Can't wait.

Well you know where you can shove that idea Loz, and the sun doesn't shine there
My mam always wanted me to go into politics, but cofessions of 'running through wheat fields' would look like...running through wheat fields in comparison to the skeletons in my closet, and my language would make the Beast of Bolsover blush.

[Krist]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	The cost of tickets on Britain's railways are shockingly extortionate by comparison to Swiss railways (again, probably a bit simplistic - soz )

Except of course that they aren't.

Trains are on average in the UK actually cheaper than in Switzerland.
You should see on Tripadvisor how often Brits are astonished by the fact that, yes, getting from Geneva to Zürich costs 89,- CHF, and no, you can't take a cheap coach in stead...

Its only if you want to go to or from London during rush hour that tickets in the UK are very expensive. Making these tickets cheaper wouldn't be a good idea given how overloaded the trains already are...