The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

Going slightly off, I was talking to a Polish business owner the other night about Brexit. She said she has no worries about it because...

"If they want me to leave, fine. They will have to buy my house and business from me at full market valuation. Then they will have to find a way to deport my son, who is my dependent and holds a British passport because his father is British. Once they solve all that, I'll take the money and set up a new life for myself somewhere warmer."

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Going slightly off, I was talking to a Polish business owner the other night about Brexit. She said she has no worries about it because... "If they want me to leave, fine. They will have to buy my house and business from me at full market valuation.

Doesn't work that way here, why would it work that way in the UK?

Tom

	Quote:	st2lemans
	Doesn't work that way here, why would it work that way in the UK? Tom

Sure it does. She wouldn't lose ownership of her asset here or the UK even if she were to be deported. This isn't Zimbabwe.

[st2lemans]

	Quote:
	Sure it does. She wouldn't lose ownership of her asset here or the UK even if she were to be deported. This isn't Zimbabwe.

My point is that here you can deported even if you still own a house or business, nobody has to buy it first.

Tom

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Sure it does. She wouldn't lose ownership of her asset here or the UK even if she were to be deported. This isn't Zimbabwe.

Certainly, but that doesn't protect her from being deported. Or does it?

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Certainly, but that doesn't protect her from being deported. Or does it?

No, but it raises an issue that if you are a property owner and your host country kicks you out, you would likely need to sell your property to finance a new house elsewhere. I've no clue what they would do but I think they are going to come up against some friction if deported people are having to fire-sale their homes.

It's not like they were living illegally, it would only be after Brexit the circumstances change and they are under a new heading of "illegal".

It's an unlikely scenario but it would be interesting to see how it would pan out.

	Quote:	st2lemans
	My point is that here you can deported even if you still own a house or business, nobody has to buy it first.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Certainly, but that doesn't protect her from being deported. Or does it?

Sure, nobody, including her, is claiming otherwise. If they decide to deport her, she can sell her asset at market value and probably go and live like a queen somewhere warmer.

Well it's all hypothetical anyhow. EU citizens rights are guaranteed so this is just some gobshite mouthing off about something that will never happen.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Going slightly off, I was talking to a Polish business owner the other night about Brexit. She said she has no worries about it because... "If they want me to leave, fine. They will have to buy my house and business from me at full market valuation. Then they will have to find a way to deport my son, who is my dependent and holds a British passport because his father is British. Once they solve all that, I'll take the money and set up a new life for myself somewhere warmer."

No they won't. She can sell them, but the government isn't going to buy them off her. And the kid could go and live with the dad. And if she wants somewhere warmer, what's she doing in the UK in the first place?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Well it's all hypothetical anyhow. EU citizens rights are guaranteed so this is just some gobshite mouthing off about something that will never happen.

You just don't get it, do you?

As soon as Brexit happens, all the EU citizens resident in the United Kingdom will be rounded up and herded onto boats ready to be sent back to The Continent. Their property will be personally confiscated by Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Theresa May, who will be heard cackling with glee as they divide the spoils between them.

The very next day, the entire county of Lancashire will be turned into a fracking site, the NHS will be abolished, every citizen's right going back to the Magna Carta will be rescinded (didn't you know that the EU was responsible for the Magna Carta, along with 1000 years of peace, prosperity and brotherhood throughout the continent of Europe? Didn't you know that? Racist!) and scientists and engineers from Margate to Thurso will be forced to use Imperial measures for everything.

This is the future, Loz. This is what you wanted. Racist!

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	No they won't. She can sell them, but the government isn't going to buy them off her. And the kid could go and live with the dad. And if she wants somewhere warmer, what's she doing in the UK in the first place?

Think you're missing the point.

	Quote:
	You just don't get it, do you? As soon as Brexit happens, all the EU citizens resident in the United Kingdom will be rounded up and herded onto boats ready to be sent back to The Continent. Their property will be personally confiscated by Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Theresa May, who will be heard cackling with glee as they divide the spoils between them. The very next day, the entire county of Lancashire will be turned into a fracking site, the NHS will be abolished, every citizen's right going back to the Magna Carta will be rescinded (didn't you know that the EU was responsible for the Magna Carta, along with 1000 years of peace, prosperity and brotherhood throughout the continent of Europe? Didn't you know that? Racist!) and scientists and engineers from Margate to Thurso will be forced to use Imperial measures for everything. This is the future, Loz. This is what you wanted. Racist!

Be fair. Given the British Government's organisational skills, this will take at least 6 months to come to fruition.

[amogles]

	Quote:
	No, but it raises an issue that if you are a property owner and your host country kicks you out, you would likely need to sell your property to finance a new house elsewhere. I've no clue what they would do but I think they are going to come up against some friction if deported people are having to fire-sale their homes. It's not like they were living illegally, it would only be after Brexit the circumstances change and they are under a new heading of "illegal". It's an unlikely scenario but it would be interesting to see how it would pan out.

The problem would be far far bigger in places like Spain. If tens of thousanbds of expats were told to leave, all those properties hitting the market at the same time would cause a huge crash.

Entire resorts would become ghost towns.

Not to mention all the pubs and bars and pool cleaning companies and whatnot that would go out of business over night. That could easily be a 5-digit number of jobs.

No government would want that to happen on their watch.

And that's why its not going to happen.

	Quote:	amogles
	The problem would be far far bigger in places like Spain. If tens of thousanbds of expats were told to leave, all those properties hitting the market at the same time would cause a huge crash. Entire resorts would become ghost towns. Not to mention all the pubs and bars and pool cleaning companies and whatnot that would go out of business over night. That could easily be a 5-digit number of jobs. No government would want that to happen on their watch. And that's why its not going to happen.

I think the only people in the Costas that would suffer would be the Brits who were eligible (and wanted to) remain in the ghost town it became.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Sure, nobody, including her, is claiming otherwise. If they decide to deport her, she can sell her asset at market value and probably go and live like a queen somewhere warmer.

I think she does when she says "they [the government] have to buy the house at market value", as if it was some kind of condition.

	Quote:
	[..] This is the future, Loz. This is what you wanted. Racist!

In order to be permitted to stay EU citizens will need to prove that they've been working in the UK for five years. That leaves an awful many out in the rain, and there's a fair chance likewise will apply to UK citizens in the EU.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	The problem would be far far bigger in places like Spain. If tens of thousanbds of expats were told to leave, all those properties hitting the market at the same time would cause a huge crash. Entire resorts would become ghost towns. Not to mention all the pubs and bars and pool cleaning companies and whatnot that would go out of business over night. That could easily be a 5-digit number of jobs. No government would want that to happen on their watch. And that's why its not going to happen.

Hate to break it to you but the Spanish property market already did crash, years ago

[amogles]

	Quote:	marton
	Hate to break it to you but the Spanish property market already did crash, years ago Attachment 132050

good to know that means it won't crash again.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	I think she does when she says "they [the government] have to buy the house at market value", as if it was some kind of condition.

I read it in a more colloquial way (given ENG is almost certainly the person's second or third language). I think she's just being laissez-faire about it saying que sera, sera...if they force me out, they also force me to sell my business (as I'm no longer there to run it) and house (as I'm no longer there to live in it) and i'll go set up somewhere warmer with the proceeds. I hear there will be cheap houses on the Costa del Sol

[lewton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Brexit vote would spark recession - IMF 820,000 jobs lost within two years - George Osbourne Immediate and profound economic shock - Mark Carney We must downgrade growth to 1.4% - OBR at Autumn budget Zzzzzzzzzz.

Hadn't Cameron promised to invoke article 50 the day after the referendum if Brexit won?
This is what all those predictions were based on.
For the 10 months or so everybody was still waiting for the UK government to actually invoke article 50. Then the impact started to take effect.

	Quote:	lewton
	Hadn't Cameron promised to invoke article 50 the day after the referendum if Brexit won? This is what all those predictions were based on. For the 10 months or so everybody was still waiting for the UK government to actually invoke article 50. Then the impact started to take effect.

No they weren't. They were based simply on the result of the vote. Besides, Article 50 has been invoked for a year now and there's been minimal effect. £ has recovered to highest levels since the vote. Employment is at record highs. GDP growth has had to be revised up.

With so many variables it is impossible to make forecasts as to what the outcome of Brexit will be and these reports need to be taken with a pinch of salt.