The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	No they weren't. They were based simply on the result of the vote. Besides, Article 50 has been invoked for a year now and there's been minimal effect. £ has recovered to highest levels since the vote. Employment is at record highs. GDP growth has had to be revised up. With so many variables it is impossible to make forecasts as to what the outcome of Brexit will be and these reports need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Actually long term economic forecasts tend to be more accurate than short term. And for the past several months the UK has been in a position similar to Germany and Ireland - full access to the single market and related trade deals while trading in what to them is an under valued currency at little cost to the exchequer. Come March 2019 that will no longer be the case and we will have to see how that plays out.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	In order to be permitted to stay EU citizens will need to prove that they've been working in the UK for five years. That leaves an awful many out in the rain, and there's a fair chance likewise will apply to UK citizens in the EU.

Perhaps not after this family have had their day in court.

British group wins right to take Brexit case to European court

[amogles]

	Quote:
	You just don't get it, do you? As soon as Brexit happens, all the EU citizens resident in the United Kingdom will be rounded up and herded onto boats ready to be sent back to The Continent. Their property will be personally confiscated by Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Theresa May, who will be heard cackling with glee as they divide the spoils between them. The very next day, the entire county of Lancashire will be turned into a fracking site, the NHS will be abolished, every citizen's right going back to the Magna Carta will be rescinded (didn't you know that the EU was responsible for the Magna Carta, along with 1000 years of peace, prosperity and brotherhood throughout the continent of Europe? Didn't you know that? Racist!) and scientists and engineers from Margate to Thurso will be forced to use Imperial measures for everything. This is the future, Loz. This is what you wanted. Racist!

And the miners will go back on strike.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	No they weren't. They were based simply on the result of the vote. Besides, Article 50 has been invoked for a year now and there's been minimal effect. £ has recovered to highest levels since the vote. Employment is at record highs. GDP growth has had to be revised up. With so many variables it is impossible to make forecasts as to what the outcome of Brexit will be and these reports need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Uncertainly is already dragging down the U.K. economy, which is now the slowest growing in Europe and the G7.

Foreign automakers, British banks and thousands of companies are urging Prime Minister Theresa May to provide clarity about future trade with the European Union.

"There is no room for continued ambiguity as companies make investment and hiring decisions," the British Chambers of Commerce wrote Wednesday in a letter to May.

Source

[marton]

Japan has given a stark warning to Britain that its big companies -- and others -- would have to quit the country if trade barriers after Brexit wipe out their profit margins.
After meeting Prime Minister Theresa May with a delegation of top Japanese executives, Japan's ambassador to the U.K., Koji Tsuruoka, was asked about the threat of new obstacles to trade between Britain and the European Union, the country's biggest export market.

"If there is no profitability of continuing operations in the U.K. - not Japanese only - then no private company can continue operations," he told reporters.

Source

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz
	GDP growth has had to be revised up.

Yet it's it's a paltry 0.1% above the prediction you quoted. Which makes it an excellent job.

	Quote:
	these reports need to be taken with a pinch of salt.

Which prediction doesn't that apply to?

Besides, the Bank of England flooded the market with liquidity after the vote, supported by an interest rate cut. Without that, and probably a host of additional measures, the outcome probably would have been much worse.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Perhaps not after this family have had their day in court. British group wins right to take Brexit case to European court

If they win, the verdict may also apply to EU citizens in the UK. Oops, there goes that bargaining chip of May's.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Besides, the Bank of England flooded the market with liquidity after the vote, supported by an interest rate cut. Without that, and probably a host of additional measures, the outcome probably would have been much worse.

....and it seems the day of reckoning for that is now fast approaching. Inflation kicking in and interest rate hikes expected from May.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Which prediction doesn't that apply to?

All of them. Without exception, ever single prediction that has been made so far with regards to Brexit has been wrong.

Sit back, enjoy the ride, and we'll see what happens when we get there.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	If they win, the verdict may also apply to EU citizens in the UK. Oops, there goes that bargaining chip of May's.

Good. The subject should never have been up for discussion.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	All of them. Without exception, ever single prediction that has been made so far with regards to Brexit has been wrong.

How would you or anyone else know? Last I checked, the UK was still in the EU.

[marton]

	Quote:
	How would you or anyone else know? Last I checked, the UK was still in the EU.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Actually long term economic forecasts tend to be more accurate than short term. And for the past several months the UK has been in a position similar to Germany and Ireland - full access to the single market and related trade deals while trading in what to them is an under valued currency at little cost to the exchequer. Come March 2019 that will no longer be the case and we will have to see how that plays out.

Despite full access to the single market and EU trade deals and an under valued currency the U.K. economy is now the slowest growing in Europe and the G7.

So when the UK loses access to the single market and EU trade deals then everything economically will improve

Edit; likely BOE rate increases to stop inflation will also fix the under valued currency

	Quote:	Loz1983
	All of them. Without exception, ever single prediction that has been made so far with regards to Brexit has been wrong.

Agreed, here's a corker for starters.

	Quote:
	Mr (Liam) Fox has said previously that a trade agreement between the UK and EU would be “one of the easiest in history” to obtain.

[newtoswitz]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	All of them. Without exception, ever single prediction that has been made so far with regards to Brexit has been wrong.

No, some were pretty accurate:

FT, 31.07.2017

"Britain is incapable of managing Brexit and calamity will follow

The UK government has failed to prepare for any of the necessary compromises"

Telegraph, 11.07.2017

"Ryanair boss: ‘No flights’ between UK and EU after Brexit"

OK - the second one is only because he's running out of pilots and those left hate him and just joined a union

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Well it's all hypothetical anyhow. EU citizens rights are guaranteed so this is just some gobshite mouthing off about something that will never happen.

How typical that you would assume this woman to be a "gobshite mouthing off".

In fact, she's a respected business person with a few dozen employees (mainly British), and she has raised all the possible scenarios with her legal team (including custody of her son) and accountant, because her employees are concerned that their future is in the balance due to their employer's status. To be quite frank, it wasn't a scenario I'd accounted for.

She was telling me not to worry because she isn't worried, and will see how the land lies in 6 or 7 years time, when her son will have finished high school. It was enlightening meeting and talking to her.

[marton]

The Fiesta Farage


Source

[Uncle Max]

EDIT: hotlinked image shows latest cover, see below for original

Latest cover from Private Eye:

"We must throw off the shackles of the EU and trade freely again with Persia, Mesopotamia and Cathay"

Oh.

London bankers resist relocation to Frankfurt for Brexit

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Oh. London bankers resist relocation to Frankfurt for Brexit

What's new? Nobody in their right mind would willingly swap life in London for Frankfurt, and this has long been known to be the feeling amongst those in the banking industry.

https://www.englishforum.ch/daily-li...ml#post2889526

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Oh. London bankers resist relocation to Frankfurt for Brexit

	Quote:	Blueangel
	What's new? Nobody in their right mind would willingly swap life in London for Frankfurt, and this has long been known to be the feeling amongst those in the banking industry. https://www.englishforum.ch/daily-li...ml#post2889526

And yet, they're going to have to. Doesn't your heart just bleed for those poor bankers?

More Bantz.

https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/st...16238413893632

	Quote:	Loz1983
	More Bantz. https://twitter.com/andrealeadsom/st...16238413893632

Not sure what you are trying to prove here? That both sides of the debate have absolute reprobates? A quick look back through this thread would have shown you that!