The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[baboon]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The UK buys more from the EU, than they sell to the EU, so actually they have an advantage at the negotiating table as they have less to loose. There are 2 net contributors to the EU Germany & the UK, the rest are all leaches. Nothing fair about that.

47% of UK exports go to the EU. 16% of EU exports go to the UK. Which economy will be proportionately more damaged?

Plus a fair chunk of those EU exports are food....the UK has no choice but to import food. OK, the US is a partial alternative if you want hormone laden meat.

[curley]

	Quote:	baboon
	47% of UK exports go to the EU. 16% of EU exports go to the UK. Which economy will be proportionately more damaged? Plus a fair chunk of those EU exports are food....the UK has no choice but to import food. OK, the US is a partial alternative if you want hormone laden meat.

Assuming these figures are correct, how much is 16% of the entire EU .... and 47% of UK in money?

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	baboon
	47% of UK exports go to the EU. 16% of EU exports go to the UK. Which economy will be proportionately more damaged? Plus a fair chunk of those EU exports are food....the UK has no choice but to import food. OK, the US is a partial alternative if you want hormone laden meat.

Lets get this right 16% of the total of 28 Countries is huge v 47% of 1 country.
The EU will be far worse effected amazed you can't see that.

[marton]

	Quote:	baboon
	47% of UK exports go to the EU. 16% of EU exports go to the UK. Which economy will be proportionately more damaged? Plus a fair chunk of those EU exports are food....the UK has no choice but to import food. OK, the US is a partial alternative if you want hormone laden meat.

"the US is a partial alternative if you want hormone laden meat." The United States is not keen on pursuing a separate free trade deal with Britain if it leaves the European Union, the US trade representative, Michael Froman said.

If Britain left the EU, Froman said, it would face the same tariffs and trade barriers as other countries outside the US free trade network.

Edit; “We’re not particularly in the market for free trade agreements with individual countries. We’re building platforms … that other countries can join over time.”

Source

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Lets get this right 16% of the total of 28 Countries is huge v 47% of 1 country. The EU will be far worse effected amazed you can't see that.

"The EU will be far worse effected " Um, still only 16%?

[baboon]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Lets get this right 16% of the total of 28 Countries is huge v 47% of 1 country. The EU will be far worse effected amazed you can't see that.

Now you surprise me as you usually have a decent grasp of some subjects. However I assume statistics are not your strong point.

Right, lets put it another way and see if you can understand it.

Exports represent almost 29% of the UK economy. So roughly 14% of UK GDP is directly dependent on exports to the rest of the EU (indirectly a factor higher than even that of course).

For the EU, external exports represent about 18% of GDP. Adjusting for the UK figures (not included in the 18% on either side), you can work out that exports to the UK account for something like 3% of the EU economy. Plus a decent slice of that is food, something the UK has no choice but to import.

Take 3% out of the EU GDP and you have a nasty recession. Take 14% out of the UK GDP and you have a real crash.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	baboon
	Now you surprise me as you usually have a decent grasp of some subjects. However I assume statistics are not your strong point. Right, lets put it another way and see if you can understand it. Exports represent almost 29% of the UK economy. So roughly 14% of UK GDP is directly dependent on exports to the rest of the EU (indirectly a factor higher than even that of course). For the EU, external exports represent about 18% of GDP. Adjusting for the UK figures (not included in the 18% on either side), you can work out that exports to the UK account for something like 3% of the EU economy. Plus a decent slice of that is food, something the UK has no choice but to import. Take 3% out of the EU GDP and you have a nasty racesion. Take 14% out of the UK GDP and you have a real crash.

I don't believe the trade will stop, I think the global exports from a temporally devalued £ will cause a boom rather than a recession.

[curley]

	Quote:	baboon
	Now you surprise me as you usually have a decent grasp of some subjects. However I assume statistics are not your strong point. Right, lets put it another way and see if you can understand it.

Wonderful, famanfilms, ain't it fun to be patronized, eih? Too bad he/she couldn't tap you on the head, while writing all the above.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I don't believe the trade will stop, I think the global exports from a temporally devalued £ will cause a boom rather than a recession.

me neither.

[baboon]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I don't believe the trade will stop, I think the global exports from a temporally devalued £ will cause a boom rather than a recession.

Never said it would. Just pointing out what is actually at risk.

[baboon]

	Quote:	curley
	Wonderful, famanfilms, ain't it fun to be patronized, eih? Too bad he/she couldn't tap you on the head, while writing all the above.

Said as in that case he did make rather a dense statement and no shame as the reality is that most people have a very weak grasp of statistics. Notoriously doctors for example.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	baboon
	Said as in that case he did make rather a dense statement and no shame as the reality is that most people have a very weak grasp of statistics. Notoriously doctors for example.

Understanding what they mean is what's important, perhaps a fool would be taken in........ you obviously were

[LuganoPirate]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Lets get this right 16% of the total of 28 Countries is huge v 47% of 1 country. The EU will be far worse effected amazed you can't see that.

The problem with percentages is they don't tell the whole truth. In pure money terms, Germany has a trade surplus with the UK of €51 bn, second only to the US at €54 bn and the whole of the EU has a surplus with the UK of € 92bn. It's so heavily in their favour that there's no way they will jeopardise that and truth is they can't afford to. They'll already have to find an additional € 12bn nett that the UK pays in so they'll be desperate for a deal.

[Faltrad]

	Quote:	LuganoPirate
	they'll be desperate for a deal.

I love that in every negotiation, each part always convince themselves to be the one in the stronger position. In this particular case, I just wish good luck to every body, I'll be happy with both referendum outcomes, for different reasons. I have to admit that seeing Cameron launching an exit referendum and hoping for a no at the same time is in itself entertaining.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	LuganoPirate
	The problem with percentages is they don't tell the whole truth. In pure money terms, Germany has a trade surplus with the UK of €51 bn, second only to the US at €54 bn and the whole of the EU has a surplus with the UK of € 92bn. It's so heavily in their favour that there's no way they will jeopardise that and truth is they can't afford to. They'll already have to find an additional € 12bn nett that the UK pays in so they'll be desperate for a deal.

If I was negotiating I would say we will let the EU have the 92 billion of surplus trade but want a credit from the EU of 12 billion so 24 billion benefit to the UK, no doubt I would accept zero payment either way in the end..

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	LuganoPirate
	The problem with percentages is they don't tell the whole truth. In pure money terms, Germany has a trade surplus with the UK of €51 bn, second only to the US at €54 bn and the whole of the EU has a surplus with the UK of € 92bn. It's so heavily in their favour that there's no way they will jeopardise that and truth is they can't afford to. They'll already have to find an additional € 12bn nett that the UK pays in so they'll be desperate for a deal.

Those are numbers, but people are making the mistake in thinking that the trade will stop.

One difference when the UK leaves is that some goods would be subject to tariffs in both directions. I would expect that for a large part of the numbers given, the tariffs are already zero, meaning little change.

Some big numbers will be on cars and wine (hitting germany and france).

Assuming no deals to maintain zero tariffs, the UK would win out in collecting more tariffs.

Over time, you might see then a shift (for example more domestic production of cars).

A big win for the UK would be that we can tailor the tariffs with external countries.

The UK could also buy food from non-EU producers without the distortion of high EU tariffs designed to protect EU producers.

[yacek]

I think people underestimate the increased cost doing business due to overregulation coming from the EU.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	yacek
	I think people underestimate the increased cost doing business due to overregulation coming from the EU.

It's huge, however for sales to the EU those regulations need to be followed.

The sooner the UK gets it's act together, sales to the EU won't be important, the world is a much bigger market than the EU.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Faltrad
	I have to admit that seeing Cameron launching an exit referendum and hoping for a no at the same time is in itself entertaining.

Well he had to follow through on at least one of his election promises. It's just a criminal shame this is the one.

Can't help but wonder what history will remember him for, but suspect it will be for pig bothering.

Chin chin old chap!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	yacek
	I think people underestimate the increased cost doing business due to overregulation coming from the EU.

And I thing you need to look at the facts! The Euro Group as a whole has increased it's positive balance of trade, Italy, considered one of the sick economies has started to produce a positive balance of trade, Spain has started to reduce it's negative balance of trade and Ireland has hit record highs in exporting. Strange how all these countries seem to be able to advance while the UK continues to produce a negative balance of trade...

The EU is just a handy excuse for under performance!

[Pixie B]

	Quote:
	Happy to do some research- but in the meantime, does anyone here have the answers? How much is child benefit in the UK? How much in CH? Who pays if parent lives and works in CH and kids back in UK? Apparently there was quite a hoohaa in the UK some time ago, as it was publicised that people who work in Switzerland but have kids in the UK, would have to be paid child benefit, by reciprocal arrangement, by the UK tax payer at a much higher rate than locals, as CH CB is much higher. People were up in arms about this, as expats are considered (fairly most of the time) to have much higher salaries. Can't find a link to this effect though.

Child benefit was about £70 per month in the UK. Here it is about CHF200. You don't get both. I forgot to cancel the UK one until a couple of months after we moved and I had to pay it back.

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