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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #11461  
Old 06.03.2018, 12:30
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That is the only profitable model, only a handful of the worlds airlines have realised that yet.
But the World's top 3 most profitable airlines are AA, United and Delta https://www.consultancy.uk/news/1358...s-of-the-globe
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  #11462  
Old 06.03.2018, 12:30
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Its registered office is in Madrid, Spain which is what counts for this negotiation, true its operational headquarters in London, England.

Being listed on the LSE does not make it British, look at Coca Cola (Swiss).
Coca Cola HBC AG (market cap $9bn) is listed on SIX, not Coca Cola Co.($190bn) - it is a Swiss company.

The Head Office of IAG is in London, there are a huge amount of British employees, so suggesting that this is a 100% EU company problem after Brexit is pie-in-the-sky thinking. The Market cap is split ~50:50 between Madrid and London exchanges.
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  #11463  
Old 06.03.2018, 13:59
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Coca Cola HBC AG (market cap $9bn) is listed on SIX, not Coca Cola Co.($190bn) - it is a Swiss company.

The Head Office of IAG is in London, there are a huge amount of British employees, so suggesting that this is a 100% EU company problem after Brexit is pie-in-the-sky thinking. The Market cap is split ~50:50 between Madrid and London exchanges.
Take a look at Coca Cola's listing on the LSE here it states "Company address; Turmstrasse 30, Zug, 6300, Switzerland"

If you look at the LSE listing for IAG you will see its full name is INTERNATIONAL CONSOLIDATED AIRLINES GROUP S.A.

S.A is Société Anonyme and is used in Spanish company names like Ltd. is used in English company names because in this case it is registered in Madrid (more details here)

As an EU compnay post Brexit they will have no problems with EU - EU flights or with EU - US flights, international flights from UK will be a different kettle of fish.
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  #11464  
Old 06.03.2018, 14:21
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Or maybe it stands for Sociedad Anonima, given that it is Spanish 'n all

The point I was making however, is that some of its subsidiaries, including the artist formally known as British Airways, have huge exposure to the UK, meaning it is clearly not a 100% EU company problem.

I wasn't even really talking about the legality of flying hither and thither after Brexit, I was referring to assets and employees in the UK, which are of course going to be impacted post Brexit.
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  #11465  
Old 06.03.2018, 14:25
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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But the World's top 3 most profitable airlines are AA, United and Delta https://www.consultancy.uk/news/1358...s-of-the-globe
This is the American Airlines that filed for bankruptcy in 2011, United Airlines filed for bankruptcy in 2002 & Delta that filed for bankruptcy in 2005.

People have very short memories, plenty of shareholder funds destroyed in those 3 bankrupcies & I suspect they are not the only bankruptcies those airlines have faced.

So the probability of airlines on average being in profit since 1904 seems slim.
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  #11466  
Old 06.03.2018, 15:17
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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As an EU compnay post Brexit they will have no problems with EU - EU flights or with EU - US flights, international flights from UK will be a different kettle of fish.
I don't see it as being so simple, and believe me in this much, I sincerely wish it was so simple. You know that this particular aspect is close to my heart and high on my list of priorities. There's all kinds of niggly things that could be overlooked in the rush to conclusion, such as having a copycat version of the 'EU list of banned carriers'.
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However, Brussels has ruled out a separate deal just for aviation on the grounds that it would be tantamount to cherry-picking.
A Commission spokesman said the notice did not cover the situation of UK traffic rights to and from EU member states that “will be determined in due course”.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1E62CC
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  #11467  
Old 06.03.2018, 15:27
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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People have very short memories, plenty of shareholder funds destroyed in those 3 bankrupcies & I suspect they are not the only bankruptcies those airlines have faced.
People might, but I don't. One of my closest friends walked away with the shirt on his back after a new airline he was on the board of, crashed before it's inaugural flight, largely thanks to the launch being scheduled for late September 2001. I remember rebooking passengers who were stranded on the tarmac across India when Kingfisher could no longer afford it's fuel bill. Travel and aviation are a volatile industry where you never know everything, which is exactly why I worked in it for so long. If anyone who works in travel says that they know precisely what will happen next month, they're lying. Too many variables.
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  #11468  
Old 06.03.2018, 16:30
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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People might, but I don't. One of my closest friends walked away with the shirt on his back after a new airline he was on the board of, crashed before it's inaugural flight, largely thanks to the launch being scheduled for late September 2001. I remember rebooking passengers who were stranded on the tarmac across India when Kingfisher could no longer afford it's fuel bill. Travel and aviation are a volatile industry where you never know everything, which is exactly why I worked in it for so long. If anyone who works in travel says that they know precisely what will happen next month, they're lying. Too many variables.
So when your claimed 3 most profitable airlines bankruptcies are taken into account are they still the 3 most profitable airlines, or have historical losses wiped out most, all or more than all profits they ever made by those airlines to date. Depreciation on airlines balance sheets can be taken with a huge pinch of salt too & can turn a huge profit into a huge loss...........
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  #11469  
Old 06.03.2018, 16:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So when your claimed 3 most profitable airlines bankruptcies are taken into account are they still the 3 most profitable airlines, or have historical losses wiped out most, all or more than all profits they ever made by those airlines to date. Depreciation on airlines balance sheets can be taken with a huge pinch of salt too & can turn a huge profit into a huge loss...........
Quite often what you get in big mature corporations is that you build up layers and layers of fluff between the actual market and what people in the boardroom believe is going on. People lose their street sense and drift into believing their own bull$hit until they can't tell the difference. This is how you get situations as we saw recently on one of the big US airlines where security gorillas are sent in to break the bones of fare paying passengers. They're digging their own grave with their stupid actions.

This is how back in the 1980s the likes of Microsoft wiped the floor with the likes of IBM, only to be humiliated themselves some 30 years later by the likes of Google.

I would put much of the success of the new airlines down to their management still having their snouts in the gutter and thus understanding trends and customers better than the geriatrics in charge of the legacy airlines.

But what goes around comes around and I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 or 20 years time we see a new wave of airlines doing to RyanAir and Eayjet exactly what they did to the old incumbents.
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  #11470  
Old 06.03.2018, 17:45
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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But what goes around comes around and I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 or 20 years time we see a new wave of airlines doing to RyanAir and Eayjet exactly what they did to the old incumbents.

Maybe somebody does self-flying planes where the passenger are members of a website and pay a monthly flat fee.

"We're the Spotify of the Airline Industry".

Yeah.
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  #11471  
Old 06.03.2018, 17:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I don't see it as being so simple, and believe me in this much, I sincerely wish it was so simple. You know that this particular aspect is close to my heart and high on my list of priorities. There's all kinds of niggly things that could be overlooked in the rush to conclusion, such as having a copycat version of the 'EU list of banned carriers'.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1E62CC
I do not see how this is different from what I posted?

EU based airlines will continue to fly EU - EU and EU to US.

International flights to and from UK are not approved in any agreement yet (I am only referencing agreements under the "EU umbrella", any existing agreements between UK and third countries are not impacted)?

Last edited by marton; 06.03.2018 at 18:57.
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  #11472  
Old 06.03.2018, 19:13
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Maybe somebody does self-flying planes where the passenger are members of a website and pay a monthly flat fee.

"We're the Spotify of the Airline Industry".

Yeah.
If we haven't got teleportation or the hyperloop by then.

Not putting my money on it though
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  #11473  
Old 06.03.2018, 23:08
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I do not see how this is different from what I posted?
Sorry. I was in a rush and didn't reply completely/ properly.

If you're of a mind to, please read the first page of this, -particularly 'section v.'... https://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ata/e/eu/114768.htm

There is a school of thought that perhaps...just perhaps...as the current treaty will need to be amended to remove all mention of the UK, the current administration could see this as a window to change the tems of the current treaty with the remaining countries. One reason for this would be that countries which share a common language or colonial history, tend to provide the most and best fares to each other. Air France to Canada, TAP to Brazil, Iberia to Argentina, etc... For 15yrs that I know of, there's been a rare as rocking horse droppings £10 + taxes fare with BA from LHR to JFK. In 10yrs in the business, I only saw that fare available twice, because it sells out within seconds of the new 6mth season's fares being available.

Basically, I don't trust the current US administration enough to believe that they'll allow the remaining EU nations to just erase 'UK' from all their treaties and carry on regardless.
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  #11474  
Old 07.03.2018, 10:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The simple answer is no. That would not solve primary issues such as passport in the financial sector, the Open Skies Treaty, and the supply of limited shelf cancer drugs to the UK, which are currently sourced within the EU, etc...etc...etc... Too many issues and an incredible lack of any easy answers, no matter what some may believe. It's a diabolical mess.
Thank you for your answer, blueangel. I always thought that after all, UK didn't benefit too much from being a member of the EU (and not only me) so it is only logical they'll push for a "divorce". But what I'm reading here from quite a few of you, is that apparently it would be a mistake.
Then please, make me understand why the Labour or the Conservatives couldn't be bothered to make a proper, honest Remain campaign and they too thought they would force EU's hands a little by playing the bad cop, good cop, who understands anything these days.
Look, here's is the young, impetuous and a good orator that Farage always was, in..1992!!!! Since the Treaty of Maastricht..He and his UKIP were harping on UK's "Independence" i.e. "Out of EU" idea since then. It was a constant, concentrated anti-EU campaign that nobody did much about it, at least this is how I interpret things. They must be really good politicians because they used everything in their favour to reach their agenda. They probably made some victims along the way, but ends always justify the means...right? Right?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ouf51S5z8qw

I will try to paraphrase a Hungarian member of the European Parliament who represents the EU "Greens" (I can dig for his name but he's not a big personality or smth. I came across with one of his proposals in the protection of environment area which was of interest for me) - one thing people say and agree upon in Bruxelles, and another message do they bring back home, blaming it all on the dictatorial EU. It's a duplicity almost all of them employ in order to score some points in their home countries. Easy fix.. EU is not popular anymore exactly because the politicians make it unpopular, then everybody wakes up when things already passed them by....bad decisions blah blah blah. I don't get it anymore.

Last edited by greenmount; 07.03.2018 at 11:12. Reason: dam' the autocorrect
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  #11475  
Old 09.03.2018, 14:58
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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"They [UK] were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out, and want a load of opt-ins.”
Just about sums it up, I think.
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  #11476  
Old 09.03.2018, 15:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Sorry. I was in a rush and didn't reply completely/ properly.

If you're of a mind to, please read the first page of this, -particularly 'section v.'... https://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/othr/ata/e/eu/114768.htm

There is a school of thought that perhaps...just perhaps...as the current treaty will need to be amended to remove all mention of the UK, the current administration could see this as a window to change the tems of the current treaty with the remaining countries. One reason for this would be that countries which share a common language or colonial history, tend to provide the most and best fares to each other. Air France to Canada, TAP to Brazil, Iberia to Argentina, etc... For 15yrs that I know of, there's been a rare as rocking horse droppings £10 + taxes fare with BA from LHR to JFK. In 10yrs in the business, I only saw that fare available twice, because it sells out within seconds of the new 6mth season's fares being available.

Basically, I don't trust the current US administration enough to believe that they'll allow the remaining EU nations to just erase 'UK' from all their treaties and carry on regardless.
Quick read through that treaty shows me it is long and complex.

Seems to be over optimistic for anybody to believe a new long and equally complex treaty can be written, agreed and formally approved in a month.
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  #11477  
Old 09.03.2018, 15:25
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Quick read through that treaty shows me it is long and complex.

Seems to be over optimistic for anybody to believe a new long and equally complex treaty can be written, agreed and formally approved in a month.
There's also a strong belief within the industry, and from the US, that the US will take this opportunity to renegotiate the Open Skies Treaty with the EU. The US has very recently negotiated new Open Skies Treaties with Russia, Georgia and Brazil, so with the threat of trade tarrifs looming, it stands to reason that the US may choose to renegotiate their deal with the EU. Their negotiations team is in place and on the ball ready to do this.
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  #11478  
Old 09.03.2018, 15:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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There's also a strong belief within the industry, and from the US, that the US will take this opportunity to renegotiate the Open Skies Treaty with the EU. The US has very recently negotiated new Open Skies Treaties with Russia, Georgia and Brazil, so with the threat of trade tarrifs looming, it stands to reason that the US may choose to renegotiate their deal with the EU. Their negotiations team is in place and on the ball ready to do this.
Gulp. I simply cannot imagine that the same can be said of the UK negotiations team.
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  #11479  
Old 09.03.2018, 16:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Sorry I didn't see your post before now.
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Thank you for your answer, blueangel. I always thought that after all, UK didn't benefit too much from being a member of the EU (and not only me) so it is only logical they'll push for a "divorce". But what I'm reading here from quite a few of you, is that apparently it would be a mistake.
The UK gained massively from being an EU member state. Amongst other things, it allowed London to establish itself as a World leading exporter of financial services, thanks to 'passporting'. This is currently under threat. If you're in the mood for an informative read...
http://colresearch.typepad.com/colre...to-the-eu.html
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Then please, make me understand why the Labour or the Conservatives couldn't be bothered to make a proper, honest Remain campaign and they too thought they would force EU's hands a little by playing the bad cop, good cop, who understands anything these days.
The issues surrounding Brexit were cross party, so of the main political parties, only the Lib Dems and the Greens were 100% Remain. Corbyn has been anti-EU since the 1970's and virtually went into hiding throughout the campaign process.
The campaign on both sides, was the most horrendous political spectacle I've ever seen in British politics. Both sides of the debate had multiple factions and groups, so there was never a singular Remain group or Leave group. This led to a total lack of cohesion and multiple messages being thrust upon the public, with each group being asked to defend what another faction of the same side of the debate was claiming. Just as an example... http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-34484687

I had the direct comparison with the Grexit campaign from being in Athens at the time, and to be brutally honest, I found the Greeks to be more aware of the issues that the Brits. The commonest arguement I heard from them was that they wanted the benefits of EU membership, but they wanted the Drachma back. The Greek side of my family cannot understand why the UK is leaving when they still had Sterling.
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Look, here's is the young, impetuous and a good orator that Farage always was, in..1992!!!! Since the Treaty of Maastricht..He and his UKIP were harping on UK's "Independence" i.e. "Out of EU" idea since then. It was a constant, concentrated anti-EU campaign that nobody did much about it, at least this is how I interpret things. They must be really good politicians because they used everything in their favour to reach their agenda. They probably made some victims along the way, but ends always justify the means...right? Right?
No. Some of most distasteful people in history have been great orators. Last Saturday I was standing on the spot where Mussolini gave one of his greatest speeches.
UKIP has gone through a few incarnations, and without Farage at the helm, has pretty much fallen apart at the seams. Farage is a good orator. He has a great vocal tone, and whilst I rarely agree with what he says, he often says it in a palatable fashion. It says a lot that Farage had exactly the same views as Corbyn on the EU, but was more successful in garnering support.

Farage himself, is a contradiction of a person. he was a banker, but his views and actions will mostlikely seriously damage the industry that spawned him. He was a EU MP, but sought to destroy the entity that paid his wages. He wanted to end FMOP, whilst having a German wife, then leaving her and their kids for his French MP lover. Everything that he is, he's against. I can't bring myself to trust a person who behaves in such a self destructive manner.
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- one thing people say and agree upon in Bruxelles, and another message do they bring back home, blaming it all on the dictatorial EU. It's a duplicity almost all of them employ in order to score some points in their home countries. Easy fix.. EU is not popular anymore exactly because the politicians make it unpopular, then everybody wakes up when things already passed them by....bad decisions blah blah blah. I don't get it anymore.
This is something that was prevalent in the Brexit campaign.

Politicians, by and large, realise that your average person on the street isn't that clued up on what the EU actually does, so they use the EU as the scapegoat to blame for all their national and local government issues.

My best mate is high up on the managerial side of local government in my home town. I asked him where the financial squeeze on funding is coming from and he said it's 100% national government. Another close friend manages the largest and most successful youth facility in my home town. She knows almost 50% of their funding will disappear next March because it comes from the EU, so she's frantically campaigning for funding from other sectors. Then I had lunch 6 weeks ago with a lovely friend who is totally non political, who was asking which people could have been affected if EU nationals' right to stay wasn't protected. It was the first time that she realised that her Spanish hairdresser and French yoga instructor would have been affected, not her friend's Turkish husband.

A vast proportion of people don't honestly know what the EU does and what it's responsible for, so it's all too easy for them to be blamed for everything under the sun by people and politicians with an agenda.

There's an old Hell's Angels saying...
The good we do, they never remember. The bad we do, they never forget.
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  #11480  
Old 11.03.2018, 20:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I hear it's #IrelandFirst now from Brussels.
I'm positively surprised by the way our bureaucrats are treating poor May and her bunch of incompetents.
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