The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Sorry I didn't see your post before now. The UK gained massively from being an EU member state. Amongst other things, it allowed London to establish itself as a World leading exporter of financial services, thanks to 'passporting'. This is currently under threat. If you're in the mood for an informative read...

The EU is not that important in Financial market terms, more of 50% of all stock market capitalisation is in the USA, ignoring the EU to concentrate on the USA would make much more sense if you were starting with a fresh sheet of paper.

Says who - not the people I know, many relatives - who are VERY senior in the UK financial markets- and preparing their exit.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Says who - not the people I know, many relatives - who are VERY senior in the UK financial markets- and preparing their exit.

It's a small market that the government had to rescue out of taxpayers money. RBS has lost over 70 Billion GBP since being rescued, more than the Brexit divorce bill yet all the VERY senior employees have had bonus's exceeding £1,000,000 a year. Quite obscene waste of taxpayers money. The Banks should have gone bankrupt. Banks have destroyed shareholder capital over many years & I am happy to see the back of them.

I don't believe in subsidies, I believe in a free market.

[Blueangel]

I'm talking about the international financial services sector which would be directly affected by the loss of passporting rights, and you're comparing that to the bail out of domestic high street banks back in 2008? I'm talking financial products and services, insurance, majors and acquisitions, etc...

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I'm talking about the international financial services sector which would be directly affected by the loss of passporting rights, and you're comparing that to the bail out of domestic high street banks back in 2008? I'm talking financial products and services, insurance, majors and acquisitions, etc...

The insurance companies were also rescued in 2008, not just the Banks, not a fan of 'financial products' sold by insurance companies, a rip of in most cases as any 'Beers' customer will confirm.

[Blueangel]

With respect, you're just throwing Billy Big Boots names into the ring, and not addressing the passporting issue which is where the international revenue for brand UK is generated.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	With respect, you're just throwing Billy Big Boots names into the ring, and not addressing the passporting issue which is where the international revenue for brand UK is generated.

You have to remember that most insurance is not profitable, for example, RSA group made their first significant profit for a decade in 2016, underwriting profit is rare, booming stock markets is where the profits came from investing premiums before paying out claims.
Insurance like Banks & Air Lines are business's that on average loose shareholder value fairly consistently. They are not the business's that a successful economy should rely on, as their profitability is uncertain. They will need to be rescued from time to time as history has shown.

Unemployment is higher in much of the EU, plenty of countries will need rescuing, who will pay the pensions of the young unemployed in Spain in 40 years time? All such liabilities will be shared, lets get out before the EU bankrupts us.

[Blueangel]

I get all that. I remember the LLoyds Names crisis like it was yesterday. However, when a significant amount of a country's GDP comes from a particular sector, everything should be done to protect that sector, unless you have a solid strategy for a growth area of the economy that can and will replace it. Even so, making the UK a bit player in that market is ludicrous, and the knock on effect could be dire to say the least.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Unemployment is higher in much of the EU, plenty of countries will need rescuing, who will pay the pensions of the young unemployed in Spain in 40 years time?

The robots...almost nobody will have a job in 40 years.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	I get all that. I remember the LLoyds Names crisis like it was yesterday. However, when a significant amount of a country's GDP comes from a particular sector, everything should be done to protect that sector, unless you have a solid strategy for a growth area of the economy that can and will replace it. Even so, making the UK a bit player in that market is ludicrous, and the knock on effect could be dire to say the least.

I don't believe in protectionism in any way. I don't like the EU it's not FREE trade it's protected trade. There may be some short-term pain, but the long-term benefits will be huge.

	Quote:
	The robots...almost nobody will have a job in 40 years.

Which is a good reason to cut future unfunded liabilities, which as one of the richest EU countries the UK will have to pay it's 'fair share'. Zero sounds better to me.

[TobiasM]

If the RBS had been allowed to bankrupt then there would have been a far worse economic collapse.

You need to think about what you are saying. Anyway the financial sector in the UK is experiencing a huge migration out of the UK and into the EU, taking jobs and investment with them. Farmers are losing workers and subsidies from the EU, that can't be replaced as the UK can't afford it and there are not enough British citizens prepared to do that work. America is not going to rescue the UK either, so you are deluded if you think that. We are losing the market at our doorstep. Brexit Britain is literally a country that has decided to shoot itself in the foot. No two ways about it.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	If the RBS had been allowed to bankrupt then there would have been a far worse economic collapse. You need to think about what you are saying. Anyway the financial sector in the UK is experiencing a huge migration out of the UK and into the EU, taking jobs and investment with them. Farmers are losing workers and subsidies from the EU, that can't be replaced as the UK can't afford it and there are not enough British citizens prepared to do that work. America is not going to rescue the UK either, so you are deluded if you think that. We are losing the market at our doorstep. Brexit Britain is literally a country that has decided to shoot itself in the foot. No two ways about it..

Predictions again, just like a leave vote was supposed to cause an immediate collapse, that never happened.

I guess we will have to buy food from Africa if UK reaches 100% employment & there is nobody to work on farms. Cutting benefits would increase the work pool, so I don't think we need to worry yet.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Predictions again, just like a leave vote was supposed to cause an immediate collapse, that never happened.

It very much did with GBP.

It can't be reiterated enough though, as some people seem to be wilfully ignorant on the matter...we haven't left yet...

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Predictions again, just like a leave vote was supposed to cause an immediate collapse, that never happened. I guess we will have to buy food from Africa if UK reaches 100% employment & there is nobody to work on farms. Cutting benefits would increase the work pool, so I don't think we need to worry yet.

Not predictions it's all happening as we type! I think you are foolish if you haven't been reading about what is actually going on. Then again you chose to live in Switzerland so I am pretty sure you are not really that concerned. Just slash benifits and privatise everything and let the rich avoid tax. That's a plan!

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	It very much did with GBP. It can't be reiterated enough though, as some people seem to be wilfully ignorant on the matter...we haven't left yet...

The collapse of the economy was supposed to happen immediately after a leave vote. The Chancellor of the Exchequer said there would need to be an emergency budget immediately after the vote, that did not happen, unemployment fell & the economy has grown. Whats not to like?

	Quote:	TobiasM
	Not predictions it's all happening as we type! I think you are foolish if you haven't been reading about what is actually going on. Then again you chose to live in Switzerland so I am pretty sure you are not really that concerned. Just slash benifits and privatise everything and let the rich avoid tax. That's a plan!

I actually chose to leave CH & live in the EU. I have a potential UK IHT liability at death even though I have not lived in the UK for over 25 years, so a potential UK taxpayer who can't vote. Benefits are ridiculous in the UK & have made housing unaffordable. Help to Buy has increased prices of new builds & builders profits, rent subsidies mean higher rents to landlords like yourself & higher home prices as a result.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Whats not to like?

The fact that the BoE's quantitative easing that allayed the 'cliff edge' scenario, has to be repaid at some point.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The collapse of the economy was supposed to happen immediately after a leave vote. The Chancellor of the Exchequer said there would need to be an emergency budget immediately after the vote, that did not happen, unemployment fell & the economy has grown. Whats not to like?

Well, he resigned as chancellor shortly after the Brexit vote! I'm not sure where you are getting the "fact" that the economy was set to collapse immediately after the vote though, this seems like a conveneint sop to base false premises on.

Most rational people assumed the economy would take a short, sharp hit on the announcement of a "leave" vote, followed by an unremitting disaster of a decade or more once it was actually executed.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	The fact that the BoE's quantitative easing that allayed the 'cliff edge' scenario, has to be repaid at some point.

QE should never have occurred after the financial crisis & interest rates should never have dropped below 2.5%, as there had been no need in the previous 300 years. How fixing a debt problem with more debt would ever work beats me.
I suspect increasing interest rates would have a bigger positive effect on the economy than QE, it's not as if that money goes in anyone's pocket so to speak.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Well, he resigned as chancellor shortly after the Brexit vote! I'm not sure where you are getting the "fact" that the economy was set to collapse immediately after the vote though, this seems like a conveneint sop to base false premises on. Most rational people assumed the economy would take a short, sharp hit on the announcement of a "leave" vote, followed by an unremitting disaster of a decade or more once it was actually executed.

He warned people before the vote, it is FACT, he also promised lower house prices which is just filtering through, 15% off in London prices according to the Grauniad today. High-End property has fallen off a cliff due to stamp duty, 30-40% reductions & still no sales. Not a single penthouse ever sold at the SHARD

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Not a single penthouse ever sold at the SHARD

Because it's south of the river. If it had been built in Marylebone... Same with the Beetham Tower in Manchester. Wrong end of Deansgate.