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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #11501  
Old 12.03.2018, 16:05
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Succinctly put by the Luxembourg PM Bettel:

"They were in with a load of opt-outs. Now they are out, and want a load of opt-ins.”
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  #11502  
Old 13.03.2018, 16:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

UK Budget Spring Statement
The UK Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that Britain’s financial Brexit settlement with the EU will cost £37.1bn.

Source

Looks like the Brexit divorce costs are now realistic and close to final.

Quote:
Growth forecasts up this year, but down in 2021 and 2022
Here are the Office for Budget Responsibility’s new forecasts, compared with the ones a few months ago:

2018: 1.5%, up from 1.4% expected in November’s budget
2019: 1.3%, unchanged compared with November’s budget
2020: 1.3%, unchanged compared with November’s budget
2021: 1.4%, down from 1.5% expected in November’s budget
2022: 1.5%, down from 1.6% expected in November’s budget
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  #11503  
Old 13.03.2018, 17:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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UK Budget Spring Statement
The UK Office for Budget Responsibility has estimated that Britain’s financial Brexit settlement with the EU will cost £37.1bn.

Source

Looks like the Brexit divorce costs are now realistic and close to final.
I think you can safely ignore a 0.1% change in forecast going forward 4 years, they are never even that accurate on a previous 3-month forecast, that gets updated when the real no's come through.
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  #11504  
Old 14.03.2018, 11:12
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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He warned people before the vote, it is FACT, he also promised lower house prices which is just filtering through, 15% off in London prices according to the Grauniad today. High-End property has fallen off a cliff due to stamp duty, 30-40% reductions & still no sales. Not a single penthouse ever sold at the SHARD
Warned of what exactly? Recession perhaps, definitely of a reduced GDP compared to Remain some years later, but not of a collapse as you claim.
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  #11505  
Old 14.03.2018, 12:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Because it's south of the river. If it had been built in Marylebone... Same with the Beetham Tower in Manchester. Wrong end of Deansgate.
Exactly, that's why we've both avoided them, right?
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  #11506  
Old 14.03.2018, 13:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Warned of what exactly? Recession perhaps, definitely of a reduced GDP compared to Remain some years later, but not of a collapse as you claim.
Perhaps you have selective memory syndrome

30 billion black hole 1 week before vote
https://www.ft.com/content/733e37a6-...9-3fee5ffe5b5b

https://www.politico.eu/article/11-t...-osborne-2016/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...george-osborne

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...es-to-leave-eu
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  #11507  
Old 14.03.2018, 13:08
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Exactly, that's why we've both avoided them, right?

Obviously, in my case at least, that kind of property is way beyond what my pockets could ever afford. But, even if I did have that kind of money, I wouldn't buy an apartment in Beetham Tower. My previous employer had several roadshows there, and I've been to numerous events in Cloud 23 bar (which is lush and always a good night), but when we had a showround with Hilton shortly after the hotel opened, my vertigo kicked in just walking down the corridor to the bedrooms. Even colleagues who've never had vertigo, felt uneasy. It's not the height. It's because each end of the corridor is plate glass, you get can a weird sensation that the building is twisting.
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  #11508  
Old 14.03.2018, 21:50
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Meantime here is a 'short' () list of joy:

"So let me get this right, to date, industries either moving, considering moving, reducing capacity, or shutting up shop due to Brexit uncertainty and rising costs due to the weak £, now stands at;

* Airlines.
* Car factories. At risk 2.7 million workers
* Financial services. 2.19 million workers
* Component factories in aerospace and car tech.
* Games tech companies, 40% of which are considering moving to the EU.
* Restaurants & hotels - Jamie’s, Prezzo, Strada, Chimichanga, as people start to tighten their belts, middle range eateries suffer. 4.49 million workers in hospitality.
* Retailers ( ToysRus, Maplin - gone already; New Look, House of Fraser, Debenhams, Homebase, Marks & Spencer - restructuring, Next and JLP issuing profit warnings) with many others showing significant drops in profit or issuing profit warnings, not to mention struggling independents, all struggling to cope with the falling pound. 2.6 million workers in retail.
* 46% of EU companies with a UK base will be reducing UK capacity. 15% will remove all operations to the EU, 28% will move a “significant” proportion, & 29% will move smaller parts of their operation.

That’s a total of over 12 millions workers in these industries.

Then there’s the other crap that comes with leaving the EU:

* Good Friday agreement in danger
* Reintroduction of roaming charges
* Geoblocking - we won’t get it!
* More expensive food, due to weak £ and import costs.
* Increased cost of fuels, gas, electric & petrol plus possible supply issues.
* Less money for services for example; NHS, local councils, schools etc.
* Leaving Euratom
* Loss of Euroclear
* Brain drain of EU staff from Universities and British staff seeking better opportunities elsewhere.
* Loss of EU staff in NHS leaving some areas critically understaffed
* Loss of EU staff from hospitality industry, hotels & restaurants all struggling to recruit.
* Food rotting in fields due to lack of migrant workers.
* Stagnating economy, with prolonged recession looming.
* Fisheries losing their biggest market (EU) which may cause the collapse of the industry in some areas, (Grimsby being one), due to being uncompetitive if there is no free trade agreement. Loss of EMFF.
* Reduced opportunities for our school and uni leavers.
* Removal of farming subsidies.
* Loss of regeneration cash to ex heavy industry or poor communities ( for example, North East, Wales, Cornwall).
* Gibraltar- that’s got to pop over the parapet soon!
* Food shortages, 1/3 of U.K. food is imported.
* End of Erasmus scheme.
*Loss of “Open Skies” agreement.
*Relaxation of workers’ rights, regarding hours, pregnancy, minimum wage, and so on. Making it easier to fire people.
* Loss of trading opportunity ( has anyone actually checked out the WTO rules )!
* Becoming “little Britain”, we are a service nation, not a manufacturing one, Shipping, steel and mining are never coming back.
* Potential break up of Great Britain, Starting with Scotland.
* EHIC card and the right to reciprocal healthcare in the union.
* Relaxation of health and safety rules following exit to the detriment of workers and the general public.
* Exit from the ECtHR. European Courts of Human Rights
* Exit from CFREU & ECFR - Charter of Fundamental Rights of European Union & European Charter of Fundamental rights. Which protects our rights to equality, non discrimination and human rights under EU law. This also covers the Amber Alert System.
* European Medical Agency moved to Amsterdam (underway already)
* European Banking Authority (move to Paris, underway already)
* Loss of funding for cancer research and other critical medical research projects: Joint Research Centre.
* Loss of reciprocal cross country research into illnesses, and treatment.
* Loss of research grants across all areas, resulting in further brain drain.
* Loss of access for critical cancer drugs
* Lack of clarity as to rights of EU nationals domiciled in the UK.
* 2.2 million UK expats living in the union (either full or part time) may lose rights to UK pensions & reciprocal healthcare, resulting in them having to return to the UK adding additional strain on the NHS and council services.
* UK border controls revert to Dover from Calais.
* Leaving the ECJ which poses significant risks to our security.
* Loss of freedom of movement within the EU, possible reintroduction of costly visas.
* Impact on Sports, Art & Culture, due to freedom of movement restraints, costs of importing / exporting equipment and livestock, loss of the CEMCP.
* UK driving licence no longer valid in EU & loss of green card insurance scheme and loss of Euro NCAP support.
* Leaving the Single Market.
* Leaving the Customs Union.
* Leaving Joint Action on Climate Change.
* Animal welfare and sentience laws: Natura 2000 programme.
* Wildlife Safeguards & Habitat Protection.
* Harmonisation in industrial standards & CE standards.
* Food safety and consumer protection (chlorinated chicken anyone?) EFSA.
* Risk of NHS being “sold off” in a US trade deal.
* Exit from Horizon 2020 science programme.
* Compensation for lost luggage and cancelled flights.
* Loss of European Maritime safety agency along with the Ports of Refuge for ships in distress, plus the Ship Recycling directive.
* 700+ trade deals to be negotiated in case of no deal, trade deals taking on average between 7-20 years, to thrash out and we don’t have enough competent trade specialists to handle even 5 of them at a time. The Swiss / EU deal still hasn’t been ratified and they started that in 1972!! "
.
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  #11509  
Old 14.03.2018, 22:04
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

If you actually read the list, many of the worries are just a joke, for instance, UK driving licenses not being valid in the EU. How do Americans ever hire a car in Europe? Loss of green card insurance scheme, when many countries in the scheme are non EU.

Sometimes it's better to be more focused
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  #11510  
Old 14.03.2018, 22:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

You are too young to remember hey. They will probably be valid for visitors/tourists - but not for residents.

I went to UK pre EU- having just passed both my car and motorcycle driving tests in Neuchâtel. As a temporary resident in the UK, my licence was valid for 1 year only- and as I became resident after I returned the next year, I had to re-take full test within 6 months- no exchange possible.

I shall always remember the day- had forgotten to buy L plates so MIL said, no worries, we will make our own. she made some neatly with red lipstick and attached them to the TR4 bumpers with ribbon. Off I went to the Weybridge Council Offices to pick up tester- who was about 6'3 and weighed at least 20 stones. He just managed to slide in, somehow- and I could not change gear without hitting his thighs hard. At the end- he said I'd passed but had to be careful as it was a 'powerful' car - I had to exit and ask apasser-by to help me pull him out.

Fun day.
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  #11511  
Old 14.03.2018, 22:16
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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You are too young to remember hey. They will probably be valid for visitors/tourists - but not for residents.

I went to UK pre EU- having just passed both my car and motorcycle driving tests in Neuchâtel. As a temporary resident in the UK, my licence was valid for 1 year only- and as I became resident after I returned the next year, I had to re-take full test within 6 months- no exchange possible.

I shall always remember the day- had forgotten to buy L plates so MIL said, no worries, we will make our own. she made some neatly with red lipstick and attached them to the TR4 bumpers with ribbon. Off I went to the Weybridge Council Offices to pick up tester- who was about 6'3 and weighed at least 20 stones. He just managed to slide in, somehow- and I could not change gear without hitting his thighs hard. At the end- he said I'd passed but had to be careful as it was a 'powerful' car - I had to exit and ask apasser-by to help me pull him out.

Fun day.
I think the no exchange was a Swiss issue.
My Grandmother lived in France from 1956 & was issued with a French license in addition to her UK license, no test required.
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  #11512  
Old 15.03.2018, 08:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I think the no exchange was a Swiss issue.
My Grandmother lived in France from 1956 & was issued with a French license in addition to her UK license, no test required.
Nope, it was a general issue until (I think) the 80s. Maybe not every single country but certainly most of them.

Perhaps just not for France in the 50s - looking at the general standard of French driving back in the 70s I can quite believe it.
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  #11513  
Old 15.03.2018, 09:49
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

When my mother came to Britain in the 1960s, her Dutch license was not recognized and she had to re-take her test. And this although she had already been driving for many years.

It was not a big deal though. Made an appointment with the examiner and it was over in about 20 minutes. Probably exchanging her Dutch license would have been more hassle.

She often joked that she had two driving licenses.
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  #11514  
Old 15.03.2018, 09:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Nope, it was a general issue until (I think) the 80s. Maybe not every single country but certainly most of them.

Perhaps just not for France in the 50s - looking at the general standard of French driving back in the 70s I can quite believe it.
I swopped my license from UK to Swiss in the early 1980's no problem at all, it was also fully exchangeable to French at the time.

FUD & nothing more
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  #11515  
Old 15.03.2018, 13:26
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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If you actually read the list, many of the worries are just a joke, for instance, UK driving licenses not being valid in the EU. How do Americans ever hire a car in Europe? Loss of green card insurance scheme, when many countries in the scheme are non EU.

Sometimes it's better to be more focused
Yes you are right, eventually many of these things will be sorted out. But the key word is eventually - there simply is not enough time nor resources available for the UK at this stage to get it all in place in time. So there will be difficulties and confusion for UK citizens for at least a few years after BREXIT and of course what will be the price of getting it in place. Spain is already unhappy with the costs it carries because of the EHIC card so expect the cost will go up there for instance.
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  #11516  
Old 15.03.2018, 13:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I swopped my license from UK to Swiss in the early 1980's no problem at all, it was also fully exchangeable to French at the time.

FUD & nothing more
Well yes, we were in the EU in the 80s were we not ?

(unlike 1970/71)
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  #11517  
Old 15.03.2018, 13:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

And in the meantime- I'll just add Unilever to the list.
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  #11518  
Old 15.03.2018, 13:39
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well yes, we were in the EU in the 80s were we not ?

(unlike 1970/71)
No we weren't in the EU in the 80s.
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  #11519  
Old 15.03.2018, 13:45
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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And in the meantime- I'll just add Unilever to the list.
There'll be a few numpties clutching their pearls over this. I reckon Marmite should send them complimentary t-shirts to stoke their angst
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  #11520  
Old 15.03.2018, 13:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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And in the meantime- I'll just add Unilever to the list.
An anglo-DUTCH company setting up shop in Holland in a move that has been mooted for years and which they themselves insist has nothing to do with Brexit. 7300 jobs in Britain will remain unaffected following the move.

You really will say anything to fit in with your fantasy, won't you?
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