The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	If the UK stays inside the single market and customs union without being a member of the EU it rather defeats the object of Brexit.

That's because no one appears to have thought any of this through. Camaron certainly didn't as even the legality of his gambit turned out to be false and without the consent of the British parliament, had no legal standing. As for the Brexiteers, it's pretty clear that they're woefully ignorant of the reality of the situation. Remember how the EU could go whistle? And more recently the embarrassingly clueless comments by Davis regarding the 'change' in government in Ireland? The whole thing has been a car crash in slow motion, an exercise in hubris.

Unfortunately for the UK they did also sign up to the Good Friday agreement, and by doing up signed up to a friction-less border - not a low-friction boarder, but friction-less. And there are only two ways that can happen, either with the EU remaining in the common market or the Irish Republic leaving it.

And let's not delude ourselves here. Support for leaving the EU, let alone the common market, in Ireland is limited to a tiny minority of cranks. Additionally, however imperfect Ireland's influence may be in the EU, it still has a say, and were it to return to the pre-EEC days where the UK accounted for 80% of trade (closer to 15% now), it would be entirely subject to the whims of British policy without any say in the matter. Who in their right mind would sign up to that?

That leaves a special economic status option for NI, which the Unionists would balk at, or a hard border that the Nationalists would equally balk at. And either way, given that NI with both the Republic and the rest of the UK are comparable, is going to hurt them.

But this is not a concern to the Brexiteers. For them, reaching the goal of withdrawal is paramount and the consequences, whatever they may be, are something everyone can worry about later. In short, the whole thing is one gigantic clusterf**k, from what I can see.

	Quote:	BaselLife
	Hi, look at Norway and Switzerland and it shows you can enjoy the benefits of the EU but without the voting rights. We leave the political part of the Eu but benefit from the trading rights. The best deal is to remain members and the second best to be an EFTA country. The worse outcome is no deal at all. All the best Martin

Norway and Switzerland aren't members of the Customer Union. And the "best deal to remain members" isn't an option because of the people of the UK said they didn't want that, remember?

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Norway and Switzerland aren't members of the Customer Union. And the "best deal to remain members" isn't an option because of the people of the UK said they didn't want that, remember?

The actual referendum question was "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?"

But it was never actually defined what was "leave the European Union".

So, for example, Turkey, Andorra, San Marino, Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Bailiwick of Guernsey, Bailiwick of Jersey, the Isle of Man which are in the Customs Union but not members of the European Union?

BTW, I assume you meant Customs Union not Customer Union.

	Quote:	marton
	The actual referendum question was "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?" But it was never actually defined what was "leave the European Union". So, for example, Turkey, Andorra, San Marino, Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Bailiwick of Guernsey, Bailiwick of Jersey, the Isle of Man which are in the Customs Union but not members of the European Union? BTW, I assume you meant Customs Union not Customer Union.

Customer Union innit.

The question was simple as that's how referendums work. As has been repeated hundreds of times, it was made clear by all involved during campaigning that a vote to leave the EU was a vote to leave the Customs Union and Single Market.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The question was simple as that's how referendums work.

Where do they work like that?

Last time I checked there is no country in the World that interprets referenda without serious restrictions and sanity checks, even Switzerland, otherwise there would be active quotas for all EU citizens here by now - remember, it is ultimately the federal government that got to interpret vox populi on what exactly to implement following the 2014 'Gegen Masseneinwanderung' initiative.

Indeed, turned out that the UK referendum result was still legally subject to Parliament, if you care to remember, so seemingly not so simple, innit?

So tell us again how referenda work, and please say where this time.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Customer Union innit. The question was simple as that's how referendums work. As has been repeated hundreds of times, it was made clear by all involved during campaigning that a vote to leave the EU was a vote to leave the Customs Union and Single Market.

People say a lot of stuff during campaigning here like saving £350 million a week to be used for useful causes like the NHS, so what? Actually nothing here about leaving the Customs Union and Single Market; in fact, says "We will negotiate a new UK-EU deal based on free trade".

Fact remains that nobody officially defined what was "leave the European Union", probably because they did not believe the vote would go that way.

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Where do they work like that? Last time I checked there is no country in the World that interprets referenda without serious restrictions and sanity checks, even Switzerland, otherwise there would be active quotas for all EU citizens here by now - remember, it is ultimately the federal government that got to interpret vox populi on what exactly to implement following the 2014 'Gegen Masseneinwanderung' initiative. Indeed, turned out that the UK referendum result was still legally subject to Parliament, if you care to remember, so seemingly not so simple, innit? So tell us again how referenda work, and please say where this time.

Switzerland. Masseneinwanderung was the exception not the norm.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Switzerland. Masseneinwanderung was the exception not the norm.

So you admit it ultimately does not work like that anywhere, even in Switzerland. Grand so.

	Quote:	Aeneas
	So you admit it ultimately does not work like that anywhere, even in Switzerland. Grand so.

No.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	No.

Let me try and explain it to you. You have just admitted that even in Switzerland it does not work as you originally claimed. Now, you may also claim this is the exception rather than the rule, according to the learned opinion of a number of Swiss press editorials, but even if we were not to giggle at the desperation of your sources for that, you still have ultimately failed to come up with a simple example of any country where referenda actually follow the rules you claimed.

Which is all besides the point because that's not how referenda work in the UK, which is what is under discussion, or did you miss the court cases that cleared that up for everyone else?

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Let me try and explain it to you. You have just claimed that even in Switzerland it does not work as you claim. Now, you may also claim this is the exception rather than the rule, according to the learned opinion of a number of Swiss press editorials, but even if we were not to giggle at the desperation of your sources for that, you still have ultimately failed to come up with a simple example of any country where referenda actually follow the rules you claimed. Which is all besides the point because that's not how referenda work in the UK, which is what is under discussion, or did you miss the court cases that cleared that up for everyone else?

No, you prove to me that referenda don't work in Switzerland the way I claim (whatever the hell that means). Without referring Masseneinwanderung, show me how it doesn't work. Take your time, Remaniac.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	But it was never actually defined what was "leave the European Union".

It really does not matter, because there is only one option - A50. And that is very clear that all treaty rights and obligations end with BREXI. There is no option whatsoever to cherry pick this, even if the commission, the council of ministers and the parliament wanted to do it. It would require a treaty change.

The other thing that seems to be missing from this discussion is the fact that there is not a single customs union. The one referred to most often is the one between the 28 member states and approved by the WTO - EUCU. The UK cannot remain a member of this union for the reasons above.

	Quote:	marton
	So, for example, Turkey, Andorra, San Marino, Akrotiri and Dhekelia, Bailiwick of Guernsey, Bailiwick of Jersey, the Isle of Man which are in the Customs Union but not members of the European Union?

As I pointed out, you are mixing a few things here. Some of these are member of the EUCU by virtue of their association with one of the member states, where as some are not, for instance Turkey stands out. It is in a customs union with the EU, but it is not the same EUCU agreement.

If the UK want a customs agreement it will have to be a similar agreement to Turkey and will require WTO approval. And that mean the UK will have to give up some of it's rights to negotiate independent of the customs union agreement.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The question was simple as that's how referendums work.

That is how the UK referendum worked, but that is most certainly not how referenda work in other countries.

By contrast Irish referenda are always complex because they are voting to change the actual law of the country - parliament, the president or the government have no say in it, beyond their vote as a citizen. Once the returning officer certifies the result of a referendum it is the actual law of the country, end of story.

Thus for example, when they voted to give UK citizens the right to vote in Irish parliamentary elections, they had to decide to:

- Delete the entirety of Article 16.1.2

- Add a new Article 16.1.2:

- Add Addition text to Article 16.1.3

Usually in such cases, the legal option of retried supreme court justices, legal experts etc.. have a as much, if not more, influence on the voters that politicians. It also tends to be more difficult to put a spin on dry legal phrases, when it come to debates.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	No, you prove to me that referenda don't work in Switzerland the way I claim (whatever the hell that means). Without referring Masseneinwanderung, show me how it doesn't work. Take your time, Remaniac.

Why not refer to Masseneinwanderung? It does demonstrate the fact that referenda don't work in Switzerland the way you claim, after all - inconvenient fact? And if it is an 'exception to the rule' it is either part of the rules or illegal and given the lack of successful (any?) legal challenges, I would conclude it is indeed not illegal.

I presume a Remaniac is some sort of pejorative term for a UK 'Remain' supporter - I'm not. Makes little difference to me if the UK remains or not, I just don't like sweeping opinions sold as facts.

To me the whole thing is a bit like turkeys voting for Christmas because they think they're lions.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	That is how the UK referendum worked, but that is most certainly not how referenda work in other countries.

If it did 'work' that way in the UK, how come it was successfully legally challenged?

I've been away for a couple of weeks, and I can't be arsed to read the same old same old for the last hundred pages, so it's probably been said before, but:

why doesn't the United Kingdom take this wonderful opportunity to throw away the septic cyst that is Northern Ireland once and for all?

It seems to me, with the border business and the DUP holding the balance of power, that this pissy little province, of no actual use to anybody apart from those who live there, is getting in the way of all sorts of progress. Let's tear up the Good Friday Agreement, give the sodding six counties to the Republic of Ireland (whether they want them or not) and be done with it.

Why isn't anybody suggesting this? It's not like anybody apart from Baslers and Glaswegians even likes those stupid little whistles.

[marton]

	Quote:
	I've been away for a couple of weeks, and I can't be arsed to read the same old same old for the last hundred pages, so it's probably been said before, but: why doesn't the United Kingdom take this wonderful opportunity to throw away the septic cyst that is Northern Ireland once and for all? It seems to me, with the border business and the DUP holding the balance of power, that this pissy little province, of no actual use to anybody apart from those who live there, is getting in the way of all sorts of progress. Let's tear up the Good Friday Agreement, give the sodding six counties to the Republic of Ireland (whether they want them or not) and be done with it. Why isn't anybody suggesting this? It's not like anybody apart from Baslers and Glaswegians even likes those stupid little whistles.

Because the only way that May can hang in is by her unholy deal with the Democratic Unionist Party who are the last people in the world to dump NI

	Quote:	marton
	Because the only way that May can hang in is by her unholy deal with the Democratic Unionist Party who are the last people in the world to dump NI

No, really, Marton?

Bloody hell, I don't know what we'd do without your expert insights.

[Aeneas]

	Quote:
	why doesn't the United Kingdom take this wonderful opportunity to throw away the septic cyst that is Northern Ireland once and for all?

Wasn't the whole point of the referendum for the UK to regain soverenty, not to lose it?'

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Aeneas
	Wasn't the whole point of the referendum for the UK to regain soverenty, not to lose it?'

Control over our laws, as only London & some of the south pays its way I am sure many higher rate tax payers would happily drop Ireland, Wales & Scotland.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Control over our laws, as only London & some of the south pays its way I am sure many higher rate tax payers would happily drop Ireland, Wales & Scotland.

Wouldn't it be fantastic if the English could seize this opportunity for a proper clearing of the decks, like the Turks did back in the twenties? Sweep away all this imperial bullshit, get rid of the monarchy and unelected upper house, let the Home Colonies go their own way, and start afresh - like a kind of Singapore of the Atlantic, but without the foul smelling fruit and corporal punishment.

It will never happen. That saboteur at Number 10 is no Attaturk. But a man can dream, no?