The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:
	Amazing figures, aren't they! I am totally surprised that 12.73 % on this poll have put down that they 'don't care' - surely all of us here will be affected one way or the other by the decision. I can totally agree to disagree- but I just don't get the 'I don't care'

Why should American, Canadian, Filippino, Mexican, Brazilian, etc, EF members care? It won't affect them one way or the other.

If they live in Switzerland, which is very closely linked to the EU- then I'd say it could certainly affect them too. Both Brexit and the Swiss Referendum and vote on Mass immigration, is likely to have great repercussions exactly on those groups too- those who are already here, and those who are planning to come, be it to study or work. The politics and working of the country you choose to live in, and those around that affect it directly, are surely of interest- not just for the Swiss and Brits.

[Belgianmum]

	Quote:	hairybadger
	Not everyone on the forum is British

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Why should American, Canadian, Filippino, Mexican, Brazilian, etc, EF members care? It won't affect them one way or the other.

Indeed. Since Switzerland is not a member of the EU then for any non EU members of EF it's not going to affect them whatever the outcome of the vote is.

For Brits residing abroad it has the potential to have a massive impact on their lives but they won't get a say in the referendum.

[Phil_MCR]

Anyway, I doubt very much a vote for brexit will come through. It's just human nature (better the devil you know...). Voters will be faced with the status quo, or the alternative with a lot of uncertainties and scare stories.

I don't think anyone has communicated a clear vision and approach for how Britain outside of the UK would work and without a clear alternative to vote for, of course you would stay with the status quo since things are not so desperate that you would be glad to switch to anything else.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Phil_MCR
	Anyway, I doubt very much a vote for brexit will come through. It's just human nature (better the devil you know...). Voters will be faced with the status quo, or the alternative with a lot of uncertainties and scare stories. I don't think anyone has communicated a clear vision and approach for how Britain outside of the UK would work and without a clear alternative to vote for, of course you would stay with the status quo since things are not so desperate that you would be glad to switch to anything else.

I don't think there will be a no, but i think the threat of a no can bring Merkel and Junker to make concessions that would not otherwise have been on the table. It's up to Cameron to play this one wisely and strategically.

[Treverus]

	Quote:	Belgianmum
	Indeed. Since Switzerland is not a member of the EU then for any non EU members of EF it's not going to affect them whatever the outcome of the vote is. For Brits residing abroad it has the potential to have a massive impact on their lives but they won't get a say in the referendum.

I am a EU citizen living in Switzerland. For me, personally, would a Brexit have zero consequences. I might have to get some visa to go to London but I doubt it... I am sure the Uk would go for some sort of treaties that grant their citizens visa free travel to Europe.

[hairybadger]

	Quote:	Belgianmum
	For Brits residing abroad it has the potential to have a massive impact on their lives but they won't get a say in the referendum.

We do get to vote if we're registered as overseas voters and were last registered to vote in the UK less than 15 years ago.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Treverus
	I am a EU citizen living in Switzerland. For me, personally, would a Brexit have zero consequences. I might have to get some visa to go to London but I doubt it... I am sure the Uk would go for some sort of treaties that grant their citizens visa free travel to Europe.

One of the German guys, I think it was Gabriel but not sure, said over the weekend that it's either in or out for Britain but there won't be any special bilateral deals. I guess he's just threatening as I cannot imagine the EU not striking some sort Swiss-style deals post Brexit. But I guess for now the game is all about posturing and threatening.

I don't even know if he personally would be given a say in the matter.

[Sbrinz]

Cameron has been portrayed in a Swiss newspaper as being weak. His Conservative party is, I believe, officially pro Europe, but he is trying to keep his noisy anti EU Conservative members quiet, by promising a referendum before 2017 (am I correct?)

So my question is, why cannot the Prime Minister impose discipline on his party and tell them to become independent if they don't support party policy?

The opposition Labour party seem to be pro EU and their members have no problems keeping to the party policy.

Are we going to let the wealthy right wing classes throw Britain into disrepute with the EU?

Remember that many British newspapers are privately owned and controlled by some very rich right wing people, some of whom don't even live in Britain.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonath...unt_Rothermere Daily Mail newspapers

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_...derick_Barclay Daily Telegraph newspapers

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_UK Times and Sun newspapers

[Treverus]

	Quote:	amogles
	I don't even know if he personally would be given a say in the matter.

If it was Gabriel: as head of the SPD and vice chancellor can meeker do zero without him. I think this topic has historical reasons as many Germans believe that kohl made some pretty shit deals when he basically agreed to foot the bill for most of the EU (even when in relation to size or gdp) in exchange for France and the U.K. to agree to the German reunification. Nobody really understands why we needed to bribe them for a matter that's frankly none of their business.

So: demanding unfair financial benefits is an English tradition when it comes to their attitude towards the EU and very unpopular in Germany. Gabriel knows it and not being the chancellor himself is it easy to cash in some popularity points by saying this... And he really needs some right now.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	The opposition Labour party seem to be pro EU and their members have no problems keeping to the party policy.

Really?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6800031.html

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/ar...t-brigade.html

[amogles]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Cameron has been portrayed in a Swiss newspaper as being weak. His Conservative party is, I believe, officially pro Europe, but he is trying to keep his noisy anti EU Conservative members quiet, by promising a referendum before 2017 (am I correct?) So my question is, why cannot the Prime Minister impose discipline on his party and tell them to become independent if they don't support party policy?

Because it's not the way of British politics. Both Labour and Tories have their fair share of mavericks and rebels, and both span a broad range of political positions with maybe some overlap in the middle ground but quite a long span to the far left and far right. Arguably, it is this large span of positions united under one roof that leads to political stability.

In the 1980s the Labour party suffered a major rift when the more centre ground social democrats broke away from the left-leaning mass of the party to form the SDP. Having a third party in the game made things difficult for Labour in a system that is all about "first past the post" at elections. Today the tories are suffering a smilar rift with many malcontents drifting off into UKIP. The last thing Cameron wants to do is to tell those who are still with him that they're not wanted and that they can b*gger off and join UKIP.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Sbrinz
	Cameron has been portrayed in a Swiss newspaper as being weak. His Conservative party is, I believe, officially pro Europe, but he is trying to keep his noisy anti EU Conservative members quiet, by promising a referendum before 2017 (am I correct?) So my question is, why cannot the Prime Minister impose discipline on his party and tell them to become independent if they don't support party policy? The opposition Labour party seem to be pro EU and their members have no problems keeping to the party policy. Are we going to let the wealthy right wing classes throw Britain into disrepute with the EU? Remember that many British newspapers are privately owned and controlled by some very rich right wing people, some of whom don't even live in Britain. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonath...unt_Rothermere Daily Mail newspapers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_...derick_Barclay Daily Telegraph newspapers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_UK Times and Sun newspapers

Europe is a topic that crosses party lines and MPs have traditionally been given free votes on such issues.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Treverus
	If it was Gabriel: as head of the SPD and vice chancellor can meeker do zero without him.

Freudian slip or autocorrect?

	Quote:	Treverus
	I think this topic has historical reasons as many Germans believe that kohl made some pretty shit deals when he basically agreed to foot the bill for most of the EU (even when in relation to size or gdp) in exchange for France and the U.K. to agree to the German reunification. Nobody really understands why we needed to bribe them for a matter that's frankly none of their business.

It was Kohl's way to make friends by spreading money around without paying attention to details. That's why so many countries wanted to join the EU and its the reason we are now in the mess we are in.

I reckon the Germans were Ok with it though. Why else did they re-elect him umpteen times?

	Quote:	Treverus
	So: demanding unfair financial benefits is an English tradition when it comes to their attitude towards the EU and very unpopular in Germany. Gabriel knows it and not being the chancellor himself is it easy to cash in some popularity points by saying this... And he really needs some right now.

Yeah,well, if he wanted to be popular I can think of quite a few other things he could do. But I reckon he's trying to show that he can be tough.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Really? http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a6800031.html

I cannot post on this forum what I think of Farage. It would be an immediate lifetime ban. I can refer to Cameron as a pig botherer however.

Corbyn...? I've had the great misfortune to meet and work with too many people like him in my time. He's a political dinosaur pretending to be something new with all the answers, and the youth are falling for this in their droves because they haven't been faced with this option in their lifetime.

Hopefully, people will see the party leaders for the self-serving, egotistical gits that they are, do their own research and come to their own conclusions.

[Belgianmum]

	Quote:	hairybadger
	We do get to vote if we're registered as overseas voters and were last registered to vote in the UK less than 15 years ago.

Yep that counts us out but Cameron promised to allow all Brits living overseas to vote on this one and then reneged on his promise.

[Phil_MCR]

	Quote:	Belgianmum
	Yep that counts us out but Cameron promised to allow all Brits living overseas to vote on this one and then reneged on his promise.

probably doesn't make a difference anyway.

[Belgianmum]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/121...on-Europe.html

From the torygraph.

[Deep Purple]

	Quote:	Belgianmum
	http://www.telegraph.co.uk/expat/121...on-Europe.html From the torygraph.

It's difficult to tell how much is scaremongering, rumour or fact. I suspect that there is very little fact there as nobody is currently saying definitively what will happen if Britain leaves

[yacek]

The UK parliament is sovereign so even if the people chose to exit the EU, the parliament could overthrow it? And would it?