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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #12061  
Old 24.06.2018, 14:24
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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There is a major difference between risk analysis and threats.

Think about, there is no reason for huge companies to comment on Brexit other than concerns about their financial future.

Throwing out catch phrases like "project fear" fails to address the point.
In fact dumbing down economic arguments by using such catch phrases was one example of the many failures of the pre-referendum debate.
We heard all this before the referendum. "All business will leave if there is a vote for Brexit!". We'll there was a vote for Brexit and very few businesses have left. It was a fear campaign to get people to vote remain and it didn't work. It's no coincidence that both these announcements came within a day of the march in London.

And looking at Airbus, they're making aircraft wings, not flat pack furniture. Whilst I'm not saying they can not move abroad, the sheer amount of investment required, training, auditing etc. means that it'll be years before they do. Besides, they said if there's no deal they'll move abroad. By not planning for no deal, the incompetent Tory government have made certain that a deal will have to be struck, and will end up having to agree to pretty much what the EU offers them.

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Anyone who was actually interested in the matter had to do his own research because there was precious little intelligent output from the people in charge of either campaign.

It comes to something when a voter has to go and read the sodding Maastricht Treaty for himself to understand what's really going on. I'll never get that afternoon back.
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  #12062  
Old 24.06.2018, 14:55
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Aviation, for example, the UK needs to negotiate new air services agreements with at least 70 other countries. How many have they concluded so far?
Well it seems the US-UK agreement is under discussion, but is not very promising: U.S. Offers U.K. Worse ‘Open Skies’ Deal After Brexit
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  #12063  
Old 24.06.2018, 15:04
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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We heard all this before the referendum. "All business will leave if there is a vote for Brexit!". We'll there was a vote for Brexit and very few businesses have left.
The problem with your wait and see BS is that it is too late to make the changes necessary, once the decision had been made and plans are in motion.

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It was a fear campaign to get people to vote remain and it didn't work. It's no coincidence that both these announcements came within a day of the march in London.
And now for your next BS.... CEO's do play politics, but the rules a different because unlike politicians they can be held accountable for their comments - auditors, stock exchange, shareholder etc...

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And looking at Airbus, they're making aircraft wings, not flat pack furniture. Whilst I'm not saying they can not move abroad, the sheer amount of investment required, training, auditing etc. means that it'll be years before they do.
That is a once off hit versus an ongoing cost of staying. Firms tend to prefer to take the one time hit.
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  #12064  
Old 24.06.2018, 15:29
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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And now for your next BS.... CEO's do play politics, but the rules a different because unlike politicians they can be held accountable for their comments - auditors, stock exchange, shareholder etc...
“Politicians can’t be held accountable for their comments”

Who’s talking BS?
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  #12065  
Old 24.06.2018, 15:32
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“Politicians can’t be held accountable for their comments”

Who’s talking BS?
Obviously talking about Juncker! 😂
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  #12066  
Old 24.06.2018, 15:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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All businesses, not just Airbus, are talking now about their fears and their loss of faith in the government. To all: the young/ students, working class & middle class, pensioners, it is looking very bleak.

If there was another referendum, there would be a complete reverse. How do I know that? Because I live here.
To be fair, I still know quite a few people who live in the UK and have no idea and/or no interest in what it's all about, and I've spent almost 5 of the last 12mths in the UK.

Also spent 3 weeks working daily with a contractor who isn't a political being at all. She couldn't grasp why her Spanish hairdresser was concerned about Brexit but her friend's Turkish husband wasn't. But, she was beginning to take note of where the products she used were from, and noticing that prices were increasing more with the one's that weren't UK manufactured. She also had the wholesaler advising that she pre-order certain products because they couldn't keep up with the demand from larger companies, who were buying up all their stock order before it had even entered the UK.

I still talk to a dozen or so close friends in the UK on a weekly basis. One was telling me last week that 20 of his colleagues in his office have been advised that their jobs will be gone of the final deal doesn't include Erasmus. He's in weekly meetings r.e. what will happen when the EU funding for the college he teaches at, disappears, and where they're up to with securing increased funding from the government. Same with another close friend who manages a youth complex. Then there's the friend who works for the UK branch of a Danish company, etc... It's all I hear.

Once we get past how's the wife/husband and kids, etc...it all comes down to worries about how their employment and employers will be affected by Brexit. I'm more than used to this type of conversation with my mate at Aerospace. He's been under threat of redundancy numerous times over the last decade, but the worry surrounding Brexit is across the board.
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  #12067  
Old 24.06.2018, 16:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

My post was in reply to Loz with his "completely out of touch with the rest of the nation" comment, which you wouldn't say if you lived here, never mind being on the outside looking in.

People who voted for Brexit did so because they were focussed purely on the EU and got caught up with its difficulties, lack of transparency, tighter control over member states etc. etc.. The question then was do we stay in and help to reformed the EU for the better or do we get out and leave them to it? At which point everyone assumed we would have a plan, a way forward.. Most folks I know would now agree the better option is to stay in the EU, hold on that power to help change/reform it from the inside as it is painfully clear there is no such thing as a politically clean, manageable or financially-sound break.

Interesting that Norway quietly advise the UK two years ago to stay put as from their perspective it is a costly business with which they have very little input or say whatsoever.

I often wonder if Juncker did not get the top job in 2014, would Cameron have ever put up the fight he did with the EU leading to his referendum call.

What a mess!
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  #12068  
Old 24.06.2018, 18:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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My post was in reply to Loz with his "completely out of touch with the rest of the nation" comment, which you wouldn't say if you lived here, never mind being on the outside looking in.
Fair play.
Until very recently, I believed only 3 people I know voted Leave. I now know it's 4, with the 4th being an Italian national with British residency who works for one of the companies that have given a warning to the government over recent months. It's a real 'turkey voting for Christmas' scenario.
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  #12069  
Old 24.06.2018, 20:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Fair play.
Until very recently, I believed only 3 people I know voted Leave. I now know it's 4, with the 4th being an Italian national with British residency who works for one of the companies that have given a warning to the government over recent months. It's a real 'turkey voting for Christmas' scenario.
I don't know anyone who voted for Trump, however plenty of people did, I suspect in excess of 100 of my Facebook Friends did but just don't openly admit it. The opinion polls showed remain would win by a landslide people often don't tell the truth when asked how they voted.
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Old 24.06.2018, 20:47
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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...often don't tell the truth when asked how they voted.
I didn't go around asking my friends how they were going to vote. Many of us were at a birthday bbq 3 weeks beforehand and they were discussing how it would impact upon them. Many of that group are still very, very vocal about how that impact is manifesting now.
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  #12071  
Old 24.06.2018, 20:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Given my insecure employment status, Brexit (if it goes ahead) could turn out very badly for me.

No matter. I voted on principle, and would vote the same way again if asked.

I know almost nobody who voted to leave - my friends are pretty much universally remainers. Only a tiny handful of them, however, actually understand anything at all about the EU - and I respect them for it. One of them is a fervent federalist, another one actively involved in international academic stuff, others have businesses which rely on international contacts.

But most of them are as ignorant as the mythical brexiteer who dominates the popular memes of the day.

So it goes. At least nobody is getting shot over it.

Last edited by Dougal's Breakfast; 24.06.2018 at 23:26.
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  #12072  
Old 24.06.2018, 23:09
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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We heard all this before the referendum. "All business will leave if there is a vote for Brexit!". We'll there was a vote for Brexit and very few businesses have left. It was a fear campaign to get people to vote remain and it didn't work. It's no coincidence that both these announcements came within a day of the march in London.

And looking at Airbus, they're making aircraft wings, not flat pack furniture. Whilst I'm not saying they can not move abroad, the sheer amount of investment required, training, auditing etc. means that it'll be years before they do. Besides, they said if there's no deal they'll move abroad. By not planning for no deal, the incompetent Tory government have made certain that a deal will have to be struck, and will end up having to agree to pretty much what the EU offers them.

Well and truly Swissified
"It's no coincidence that both these announcements came within a day of the march in London." It was the two year anniversary of the referendum
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  #12073  
Old 25.06.2018, 08:50
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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And looking at Airbus, they're making aircraft wings, not flat pack furniture. Whilst I'm not saying they can not move abroad, the sheer amount of investment required, training, auditing etc. means that it'll be years before they do.
Trying to scare a company off doing what is best for them.
Sounds like project fear to me.

I am sure some EU government(s) will offer them amazing incentives for moving there. They can even fly everything (e.g. machinery) anywhere using their new Beluga XL!

As for the people, well, I am willing to bet that almost 50% of their employees would accept the transfer to a decent EU country (not to Poland of course where people are bigots, but to countries like Spain, Portugal, Germany or Austria).
The ones who choose to stay in the UK without their highly paid job will simply be an additional burden to the social system.
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  #12074  
Old 25.06.2018, 09:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Trying to scare a company off doing what is best for them.
Sounds like project fear to me.

I am sure some EU government(s) will offer them amazing incentives for moving there. They can even fly everything (e.g. machinery) anywhere using their new Beluga XL!

As for the people, well, I am willing to bet that almost 50% of their employees would accept the transfer to a decent EU country (not to Poland of course where people are bigots, but to countries like Spain, Portugal, Germany or Austria).
The ones who choose to stay in the UK without their highly paid job will simply be an additional burden to the social system.
You assume they'd be able to transfer. Now being non-EU nationals they'd probably face employment restrictions in the EU same as other non-EUs do. Unless the work is highly specialised (if it were Airbus wouldn't be threatening to move) those countries will likely insist Airbus give those jobs to the locals.
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  #12075  
Old 25.06.2018, 09:25
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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You assume they'd be able to transfer. Now being non-EU nationals they'd probably face employment restrictions in the EU same as other non-EUs do. Unless the work is highly specialised (if it were Airbus wouldn't be threatening to move) those countries will likely insist Airbus give those jobs to the locals.
I don't know about the other countries I mentioned, but they can come to Germany for sure!
We constantly hire people from outside the EU at my company, from countries like Russia, Ukraine, Serbia, Pakistan, India, US and Australia.
Never did any of them have the slightest issue with moving to Germany and bringing their families with them. Even the absolute lack of any German language skills is not a problem, although the experience at the service center of the city can be frustrating depending on how willing to help the employee feels like being that day. The worst I heard of is that a colleague from Pakistan had to leave and wait in line again in order to talk to another employee.


So I am very sorry, but your comment in also Project Fear.
You just can't grasp how some countries are open minded and willing to let businesses do business, unlike those idiots in the UK who tell businessmen and businesswomen to f... off.
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  #12076  
Old 25.06.2018, 12:00
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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But most of them are as ignorant as the mythical brexiteer who dominates the popular memes of the day.
Is a fair vision of both versions of the future equally important for both sides? I don't think it is.

If you want to stay, all it takes is to be Ok or satisfied with the status quo. Of course it would be better if a remainer could depict an iimaginary future post Brexit to compare the two visions but it's not necessary.

Conversely, dissatisfaction with the status quo alone isn't enough because Brexit may lead to a worse outcome. So a Brexiteer needs a fair vision for both Brexit and Remain, otherwise there simply is no way to say either is better because you can't compare.
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  #12077  
Old 25.06.2018, 12:51
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Given my insecure employment status, Brexit (if it goes ahead) could turn out very badly for me.

No matter. I voted on principle, and would vote the same way again if asked.

I know almost nobody who voted to leave - my friends are pretty much universally remainers. Only a tiny handful of them, however, actually understand anything at all about the EU - and I respect them for it. One of them is a fervent federalist, another one actively involved in international academic stuff, others have businesses which rely on international contacts.

But most of them are as ignorant as the mythical brexiteer who dominates the popular memes of the day.

So it goes. At least nobody is getting shot over it.
I am a qualified remainer in that I don't agree with EU over-reach and I am frustrated by the huge amount of waste, bureaucracy, corruption and the overall Brussels gravy train. However all things considered, I still believe that we are better off in the club especially given our privileged status e.g. outside Schengen, Euro opt-out and we have a powerful seat at the table. If we ever decide to re-join it will be on terms similar to the recent accession countries like Croatia and Romania.
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Old 25.06.2018, 13:26
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Is a fair vision of both versions of the future equally important for both sides? I don't think it is.

If you want to stay, all it takes is to be Ok or satisfied with the status quo. Of course it would be better if a remainer could depict an iimaginary future post Brexit to compare the two visions but it's not necessary.

Conversely, dissatisfaction with the status quo alone isn't enough because Brexit may lead to a worse outcome. So a Brexiteer needs a fair vision for both Brexit and Remain, otherwise there simply is no way to say either is better because you can't compare.
But there is no "status quo" with the EU. One just needs to read some of the EU's own literature to see what the long term intentions are. Add the fact that quite a lot of ordinary people across Europe aren't very keen on those long term intentions, and what one can see in the future is a lot of instability, nothing like the vision of a happy, cooperative Europe we've been sold since 1992.

But my post wasn't really about the future. Hardly anyone I know knows much about the EU as it is in 2018, let alone 2028.
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Old 25.06.2018, 13:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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We heard all this before the referendum. "All business will leave if there is a vote for Brexit!". We'll there was a vote for Brexit and very few businesses have left. It was a fear campaign to get people to vote remain and it didn't work. It's no coincidence that both these announcements came within a day of the march in London.

And looking at Airbus, they're making aircraft wings, not flat pack furniture. Whilst I'm not saying they can not move abroad, the sheer amount of investment required, training, auditing etc. means that it'll be years before they do. Besides, they said if there's no deal they'll move abroad. By not planning for no deal, the incompetent Tory government have made certain that a deal will have to be struck, and will end up having to agree to pretty much what the EU offers them.



Well and truly Swissified
Well it was a referendum and not a vote at the time businesses stated what would happen when the UK steps out of the EU and we are about to do just that, we are just beginning to see the migration of businesses and skilled and unskilled European labour. It’s going to have a fairly devestating affect on the economy.
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Old 25.06.2018, 15:18
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Well it seems the US-UK agreement is under discussion, but is not very promising: U.S. Offers U.K. Worse ‘Open Skies’ Deal After Brexit
We haven’t heard from the US all cargo airlines yet. They are about to lose some very valuable traffic rights, which cannot be clawed back without the EU’s agreement. Sorting out the UKs challenges with third countries isn’t the top of their priority list.

The cargo integrators and consolidators have quite a bit of clout in Washington.
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