The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	But there is no "status quo" with the EU. One just needs to read some of the EU's own literature to see what the long term intentions are. Add the fact that quite a lot of ordinary people across Europe aren't very keen on those long term intentions, and what one can see in the future is a lot of instability, nothing like the vision of a happy, cooperative Europe we've been sold since 1992. But my post wasn't really about the future. Hardly anyone I know knows much about the EU as it is in 2018, let alone 2028.

In that sense there is no status quo at all, everything is subject to change and permanently evolving. You're not talking about some status quo but about stagnation.

The European Commision published a whitepaper a year ago asking which of five versions of EU people wanted to evolve towards. And had to take heavy flak from virtually everybody for their "lack of leadership". Some just can't win.

[marton]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	Well it was a referendum and not a vote at the time businesses stated what would happen when the UK steps out of the EU and we are about to do just that, we are just beginning to see the migration of businesses and skilled and unskilled European labour. It’s going to have a fairly devestating affect on the economy.

BMW will be forced to close its UK plants if the company cannot quickly and reliably import components from mainland Europe

Source might be behind a paywall.

BMW employs 7,000 in the UK.

Nissan are strangely quiet; we never did find out exactly what sort of backdoor deal was offered them by the Govt.!

Edit; Honda have expressed similar concerns about their Swindon plant.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	TobiasM
	Seems that Airbus have confirmed a no deal will mean relocating to the continent and taking with it 14'000 jobs also BMW are in the same situation. Get in there Brexiters you've setting a high bar for a cockup of epic proportions, embarrassing and long long term economic woes. Kissing Trumps brown star isn't going to make it any better. Oh I am still waiting to hear one, just one positive point in leaving the EU that balances out any of the negative. Go on enlighten me.

The 3 aircraft engine manufactures, General Electric, Pratt & Whitney & Rolls Royce will all be non EU suppliers. (Rolls Royce motors owned by BMW is not the Aircraft engine manufacture),

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The 3 aircraft engine manufactures, General Electric, Pratt & Whitney & Rolls Royce will all be non EU suppliers. (Rolls Royce motors owned by BMW is not the Aircraft engine manufacture),

It's scare mongering pure and simple. From Airbus themselves:

"Airbus has identified global sourcing as one of its long-term objectives and aims to source 40% outside Western Europe and the U.S. by 2020."

Source

Besides, aerospace manufacturing is exempt from tariffs under World Trade Organisation rules.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The 3 aircraft engine manufactures, General Electric, Pratt & Whitney & Rolls Royce will all be non EU suppliers. (Rolls Royce motors owned by BMW is not the Aircraft engine manufacture),

Actually CFM (who make most Airbus engines) split their manufacturing roughly 50:50 between France and the US.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Besides, aerospace manufacturing is exempt from tariffs under World Trade Organisation rules.

...but the various raw materials and components are not which would be the point here.

Anyway I'm pretty sure the issues causing most concern are even more concerning logistics chains, customs clearance times etc. which would all be compromised if the UK leaves the single market.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's scare mongering pure and simple. From Airbus themselves: "Airbus has identified global sourcing as one of its long-term objectives and aims to source 40% outside Western Europe and the U.S. by 2020." Source Besides, aerospace manufacturing is exempt from tariffs under World Trade Organisation rules.

The WTO Agreement on Trade in Civil Aircraft was only signed by 32 countries out of the 164 members and post Brexit UK is not yet one of them.

	Quote:	marton
	The WTO Agreement on Trade in Civil Aircraft was only signed by 32 countries out of the 164 members and post Brexit UK is not yet one of them.

Yes, and there's a transition period after Brexit whereby it's almost unthinkable that the UK won't sign up.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Yes, and there's a transition period after Brexit whereby it's almost unthinkable that the UK won't sign up.

First UK will have to join WTO on terms to be negotiated and agreed.
UK floated joining on the same terms as the EU but strident rejections of the proposal came from the US, Australia and New Zealand, among others.

Now which were the countries top of the list for post Brexit UK to sign free trade deals with?

Meanwhile
Investment in the UK auto industry has halved because of concerns that Brexit could cripple carmakers and force them to close factories.
The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said Tuesday that investment in new models, equipment and facilities in the United Kingdom was £347 million ($460 million) in the first half of the year, compared to £647 million ($860 million) in the same period of 2017.

	Quote:	marton
	Meanwhile Investment in the UK auto industry has halved because of concerns that Brexit could cripple carmakers and force them to close factories. The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders said Tuesday that investment in new models, equipment and facilities in the United Kingdom was £347 million ($460 million) in the first half of the year, compared to £647 million ($860 million) in the same period of 2017.

The UK was still exiting the EU in 2017 too

[Reb77Br]

"How Farage's Brexit Day Concession Helped Hedge Funds Make A Fortune"

"Nigel Farage has described claims he conceded the EU Referendum vote to help hedge funds as "complete tosh".

Kit Chellel is the co-author of Brexit’s Big Short: How Pollsters Helped Hedge Funds Beat the Crash, the bombshell investigation which looked into how some people made a fortune on the night of Brexit."

	Quote:	Reb77Br
	"How Farage's Brexit Day Concession Helped Hedge Funds Make A Fortune" "Nigel Farage has described claims he conceded the EU Referendum vote to help hedge funds as "complete tosh". Kit Chellel is the co-author of Brexit’s Big Short: How Pollsters Helped Hedge Funds Beat the Crash, the bombshell investigation which looked into how some people made a fortune on the night of Brexit."

If I were a more cynical person, I would be suspicious about how much Farage had squirreled away in those hedge funds himself...

[Reb77Br]

Quite. It's not as if he doesn't have a track record for making hay from the EU.

2018: Nigel Farage has MEP salary docked to recoup misspent EU funds

2009: Ukip leader Nigel Farage boasts of his £2m in expenses

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK was still exiting the EU in 2017 too

...and now it's one year closer and still no sign of any form of trade agreement.

Looks to me like the manufacturers underestimated the incompetence of the UK government.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK was still exiting the EU in 2017 too

Investments by the UK automotive industry:
2015: £2.5bln
2016: £1.66bln

2017, first half only: £322bln

Feel free to keep "fearmongering", marton.

ETA:
2017, full year: £1.1bln

Car production fell by 3% in 2017, the first drop since the financial crisis. Before the Brexit vote, the UK had been expected to produce 2mln cars by 2020, but not anymore.

Stop fearmongering, it's only 860,000 jobs.

	Quote:
	Stop fearmongering, it's only 860,000 jobs.

Is this in addition to the 500,000 who are supposed to be unemployed right now directly after the Leave vote?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Is this in addition to the 500,000 who are supposed to be unemployed right now directly after the Leave vote?

I dunno, do those 500,000 unemployed people work in the Auto industry?

[lewton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's scare mongering pure and simple. From Airbus themselves: "Airbus has identified global sourcing as one of its long-term objectives and aims to source 40% outside Western Europe and the U.S. by 2020." Source Besides, aerospace manufacturing is exempt from tariffs under World Trade Organisation rules.

I'm not a native speaker but I think you are mixing up sourcing from third parties with Airbus' own half-finished products having to cross borders during their manufacturing process.

[BaselLife]

Hi

I don't see how it is scare mongering as Brexit makes the UK a much less interesting place to do business. It looks like it makes good business sense.
I wonder how many jobs will be lost to the idiocy of Brexit.

Let's hope the damage from the Brexit disaster is not permanent.