The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	Sometimes it's not the immediate costs that is the most important for a country, long term. Swiss know it well.

If you followed the link it was about estimated annual tax losses not one off costs; the substantial one-off costs are an additional loss.
These annual tax losses are currently greater than the EU budget savings and likely to be so in the future

[marton]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	May not be a problem if Schengen and the EU fail which is becoming increasingly likely. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44632471

The article states "a seismic impact on the EU's prize political and economic project: the open-border Schengen agreement." but it does not explain why stopping Schengen would have an economic effect?

Schengen is about "ABOLITION OF CHECKS AT INTERNAL BORDERS AND MOVEMENT OF PERSONS" and is not about Customs clearance or free movement of persons, for example, Switzerland is in Schengen but continues to have Customs controls.

Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Ireland, Romania and the United Kingdom are not in Schengen but how are they economically damaged by this?

Obviously it would be a nuisance if the Schengen countries started checking passports at internal borders again but how would this have an economic effect?
Anyway Schengen countries do not any more have the people or resources to undertake wholesale border checks; they long ago ran down and reallocated their border control people.
It is all about political posturing and not reality.

[bowlie]

Even before Schengen the border with France was very open. Special ‘nothing to declare’ cards in your windshield, take off your sunglasses, smile at the nice person. Once in a very blue super-moon would you be stopped and asked for your papers.

It certainly wouldn’t be a disaster for the normal person, more a hassle for the commuters. And the costs go through the roof. The airports would have to put immigration controls back in, more officers will be needed, flights delayed, etc.

And of course free movement of people not affected and even if it were Switzerland has always had frontaliers.

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Switzerland has always had frontaliers.

But far less than it does now.

Tom

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	st2lemans
	But far less than it does now. Tom

Which implies Switzerland benefits from being outside the E.U.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Which implies Switzerland benefits from being outside the E.U.

It benefits from having one foot in, one foot out. The UK will not be offered such favourable terms.

[bowlie]

	Quote:
	It benefits from having one foot in, one foot out. The UK will not be offered such favourable terms.

They could, if they ever figure out what they want.

A good start would be to go through the list of the Swiss bilateral accords and decide which provisions they want or do not want. Decide if anything needs to be added, Bob’s your Uncle.

Except the cabinet could never agree on what they want or do not want.

Let’s hope they don’t forget they need an aviation agreement with Switzerland. Making one with the EU won’t extend to our fair soil (or EEA).

Think Fatman was talking about the UK-EU relationship, not the UK-CH one.

[bowlie]

	Quote:
	Think Fatman was talking about the UK-EU relationship, not the UK-CH one.

But of course, I just wanted to emphasise that the UK’s challenges are not just with the EU. All of that stuff included in the bilateral accords become nul and void UK/CH with Brexit. Unless they get their heads out of the sand and start talking.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	bowlie
	All of that stuff included in the bilateral accords become nul and void UK/CH with Brexit. Unless they get their heads out of the sand and start talking.

The Ambassador said the same at the Roadshow. All UK/CH deals will be based upon the final UK/EU deal because their ties with the EU are closer. This inevitably means that UK citizens resident in CH will remain in limbo for a fair while after the final EU deal has been concluded. The Ambassador made it very clear that the talks aren't being handled concurrently. Personally, I think they're hoping to do a 'cut and paste with a few twiddles' deal.

[esto]

	Quote:
	In the meantime, there is no whiff of EU agreement over what to do with migrants who do reach Europe. Which brings us back to the threat to Schengen. Gloomy German government sources told me they gave the project a three out of 10 chance of survival thanks to the increasingly nationalistic nature of many European governments. "And if Schengen does fail," they predict, "that would be the beginning of the end of the European Union." It's too early really to herald the demise of the EU or even the end of Mrs Merkel's career in government as a result of this very political migrant crisis in Europe. But, as EU summit host Donald Tusk said to EU leaders on the eve of their arrival: "The stakes are very high. And time is short."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44632471

Maybe the EU will anyway dissolve before Brexit is complete? "EUexit"?

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	esto
	https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44632471 Maybe the EU will anyway dissolve before Brexit is complete? "EUexit"?

Posted that link earlier this morning. Do keep up at the back.

[lewton]

Do dream on, it's entertaining.

[Blueangel]

Highlight of my evening, without any shadow of a doubt, Danny Dyer's rant about David Cameron on 'Good Evening Britain'. Corbyn kept a straight face, but Ed Balls was pissing his sides.

https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...8?guccounter=1

[marton]

	Quote:
	The taoiseach, Leo Varadkar, said the UK still mistakenly appeared to believe it was an equal partner in the [Brexit] talks. He suggested that the government was two years too late in sketching out its vision of a post-Brexit relationship with the EU. “We’re 27 member states, the EU is one country, we’re 500 million people, the UK is 60 million, so that basic fact needs to be realised and understood.” The Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, expressed the concern of many that it was increasingly unclear who was directing government policy on Brexit, with May’s cabinet continuing to publicly clash over the future.

Source

Really until the UK Cabinet can settle their differences and agree on one single policy there will be no chance of agreeing any deal with the EU before the UK position is clear!

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Highlight of my evening, without any shadow of a doubt, Danny Dyer's rant about David Cameron on 'Good Evening Britain'. Corbyn kept a straight face, but Ed Balls was pissing his sides. https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/ent...8?guccounter=1

I always thought Danny Dyer was a bit of a melt, but I have to say he has grown on me in recent years as I think most of his work is now done with a little knowing wink to the audience.

The last "twat" after everyone goes silent is absolute comedy gold!

Not sure I believe this, however would be good news if true.

Revamped HMRC customs system ‘set to be ready for no-deal Brexit’

[Blueangel]

Look at your source Loz. They're hardly impartial, and would be the last place to find anything admitting they have problems. There's plenty online rubbishing HMRC's claim.

Just as a gauge... The government wanted to rush the second generation roll out of energy smart meters, as they would allow consumers to switch suppliers without the meters becoming defunct in the process. The roll out is finally going ahead over 12mths after the government claimed it would be ready. Compared the the HMRC changes required, the smart meter roll out was a very small project.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/bills-an...ollout-stalls/

There's one huge issue with all government IT projects. The wages they offer for IT professionals are a fraction of what they would earn in the private sector.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

See there seems to be a rush of Brits getting other EU nationalities.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44629193

For those who got German I wonder what will happen when the UK becomes non-EU? Will those people be expected to have to give up their UK citizenship and, if so, presumably that would then mean they wouldn't have the right to live and work in the UK?

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	See there seems to be a rush of Brits getting other EU nationalities. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44629193 For those who got German I wonder what will happen when the UK becomes non-EU? Will those people be expected to have to give up their UK citizenship and, if so, presumably that would then mean they wouldn't have the right to live and work in the UK?

I'd be shocked if they pursued that line of policy. There's a lot of dual citizens, non EU, who would be pretty miffed if the UK decided to disallow it based on something that had nothing to do with their second nationality.