The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	marton
	Jaguar Land Rover said Thursday that if the United Kingdom leaves the European Union without maintaining a smooth trading relationship with the bloc, it would wipe out more than £1.2 billion ($1.6 billion) of the company's profit a year. The company plans to spend £80 billion ($106 billion) in the country over the next five years but cautioned that "this would be in jeopardy should we be faced with the wrong outcome." Source Reality dawns!!

£1.2 billion is quite a lot for a company with an operating profit of £1.5 billion.

BTW, fun how most news sources have interpreted that £80 billion as investment cash when it is nothing of the sort. It is their planned total spend - operating and investment - over 5 years.

It is also again clear that tarifs are not the only or even major concern. It is as ever the security of frictionless supply:

	Quote:
	Solihull, the UK’s largest car plant, builds 1,500 cars per day, using 15 million components. Any delay to parts delivery would force the suspension of production at a cost of £1.25 million per hour.

source

[pdofr]

	Quote:
	£1.2 billion is quite a lot for a company with an operating profit of £1.5 billion. BTW, fun how most news sources have interpreted that £80 billion as investment cash when it is nothing of the sort. It is their planned total spend - operating and investment - over 5 years.

I've seen this at several workplaces. The press have a habit of translating any investment as more jobs, but that isn't necessarily so, especially in the case of fitting out a vehicle production line for a new model; there's a lot of capital cost involved.

	Quote:
	It is also again clear that tarifs are not the only or even major concern. It is as ever the security of frictionless supply: Quote: Solihull, the UK’s largest car plant, builds 1,500 cars per day, using 15 million components. Any delay to parts delivery would force the suspension of production at a cost of £1.25 million per hour. source

That figure of £1.25 million per hour looks very real to me. I've worked in a vehicle factory using JIT. No production downtime happened while I was there, but they had the figures worked out. What they would do in the event of a production standstill would be to work overtime until they had caught up with the production targets. One figure that was quoted was the extra cost of employer NI contributions for overtime and that alone came to tens of thousands an hour.

How does this work?

[marton]

	Quote:	bowlie
	So the Cabinet is going to discuss yet another option for customs. I wish them luck with that. I heard an interview with some guy from Nissan recently. The Auto Production business is JIT, just in time. He says that if the trucks/lorries are delayed at the ports by an average of 75 seconds it will add two weeks to their business chain. They will need warehouses to store all of this stuff. And each and every imported part that will be exported again as part of a complete car will have to be tracked from port to port. Everything from engines to individual screws.

Remember that secret letter from the UK Government assuring Nissan that Brexit would not negatively impact them?

We still do not know the content of the letter or if Nissan are really well protected

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Bla , bla , répète ad nausium

Who is this guy and why is he pulling on his ear so much. I really don’t trust anyone that feels it necessary or compelling to say the f word every second sentence.

But one thing I don’t disagree with. The British electorate had no {expletive deleted} idea what they were voting for. Or the 30 plus percent that abstained had little idea what they were doing either.

[Castro]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Who is this guy and why is he pulling on his ear so much. I really don’t trust anyone that feels it necessary or compelling to say the f word every second sentence

Jonathan Pie.. satirist

	Quote:	bowlie
	Who is this guy and why is he pulling on his ear so much. I really don’t trust anyone that feels it necessary or compelling to say the f word every second sentence. But one thing I don’t disagree with. The British electorate had no {expletive deleted} idea what they were voting for. Or the 30 plus percent that abstained had little idea what they were doing either.

I really don't trust anyone that doesn't get satire.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I really don't trust anyone that doesn't get satire.

Well, there go 325 million people who live in the land of your favo(u)rite narcissist, straight out of your trust circle.

	Quote:
	Well, there go 325 million people who live in the land of your favo(u)rite narcissist, straight out of your trust circle.

Land of one of my favo(u)rite pieces of satire.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Land of one of my favo(u)rite pieces of satire.

Satire. Hmmm.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Castro
	Jonathan Pie.. satirist

Thanks! I didn't see it as Satire, just loud and rude.

[marton]

Project Fear gets real

After months of holding back, businesses are going public with stark warnings about what could go wrong if the United Kingdom makes a mess of Brexit.

Car manufacturers, which rely on complex international supply chains, are worried that Brexit will lead to delays at the borders. About 45% of the cars made in Britain are exported to the European Union.

Paul Drechsler, president of the Confederation of British Industry, has warned that Britain's car industry could be wiped out if the country leaves the customs union that allows EU nations to function as a single trading area.

The Japanese government has already made clear that its companies could move their business elsewhere in Europe following Brexit. Toyota (TM), Nissan (NSANF) and Honda (HMC) are all heavily invested in the United Kingdom.

Paul Everitt, CEO of aerospace and defense industry group ADS, warned Thursday that planes could lose their safety certifications when Brexit takes effect.

Source

[lewton]

Come on people, let's call it EEA and get over it.

[marton]

	Quote:
	The Airbus chief executive, Tom Enders, doubled down on the aerospace giant’s warning that it could pull out of the UK in the event of a hard Brexit, accusing the government of having “no clue” on how to leave the EU. Speaking at the company’s briefing before the Farnborough air show, Enders said: “The sun is shining brightly on the UK, the English team is progressing towards the final, the RAF is preparing to celebrate its centenary and HMG still has no clue, no consensus on how to execute Brexit without severe harm.”

Source

Sad but true

[marton]

	Quote:
	Theresa May has announced that her Cabinet has signed up to a Brexit deal that would keep Britain tied to EU rules and regulations indefinitely. The Prime Minister said Britain would establish a “free trade area for goods” with the EU, allowing for frictionless trade and avoiding the need for a hard border in Northern Ireland. A new customs arrangement will treat the UK and EU “as if [they are] a combined customs territory” and Britain will adopt a “common rulebook” with the EU on industrial goods and agricultural products.

Source

So no Brexit?

[Medea Fleecestealer]

Forget it. The EU will never agree it without us accepting the other EU principles as well. So we're leaving without a deal if that's what they're proposing.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	marton
	Source So no Brexit?

OK, that’s sorted goods to everyone’s satisfaction. What about services?

[lewton]

Is May still PM?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	Source So no Brexit?

The same old BS - access to the single market without the obligations. And a new twist - a customs union that is somehow not a customs union, can’t see that one flying with the WTO members either.

[marton]

	Quote:
	Brexit’s biggest funder, Arron Banks, met the Russian ambassador at least 11 times in the run-up to the EU referendum and in the two months beyond, documents seen by the Observer suggest – seven more times than he has admitted. It is the third time the number of such meetings has been revised upwards. For two years, Banks insisted his only contacts with the Russian government consisted of one “boozy lunch” with the ambassador. Banks told a parliamentary inquiry into fake news he had had “two or three” meetings.

Source

So were the Leavers played by the Russians?
And if the meetings were harmless then why lie about them?