The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It would have been possible if they'd gone into the negotiations with a Plan B (i.e. prepare for no deal and with prepare to turn the UK into a low tax low regulation economy). With this as a backstop the UK could have made reasonable demands.

Still the same old nonsense. So how exactly would you do that then in the real world? How do you get to do even a single trade deal with the EU refusing to agree your trade schedules or approve a deal? How do you sell financial services if your subsidies have their banking licenses withheld?

[youcannotbeserious]

	Quote:	bowlie
	If you want a soft (or frictionless) borders you need to be in the EU, the single market or the customs union. If you want to be in the EU, the single market or the customs union you need to agree to free movement. If you want a say in what the rules are, you need to be in the EU. Otherwise, hard borders, WTO trade regimes, limited aviation rights, lost manufacturing, lost opportunities, labour shortages (in jobs you wouldn’t do) etc. Lower quality, higher prices. Isn’t it time to admit defeat realising that you cannot have your cake and eat it too.

This, or at least the first statements, appears to be more or less widely accepted now. But shortly after the referendum, and of course before it, I remember a lot of brexiteers saying that of course UK could mantain access to the single market without having to accept FMOP. After all, the German car manufacturers would not accept losing such a big market, etc

[marton]

Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of JP Morgan - which employs 16,000 people in Britain - has already said he will move hundreds of people out of the UK when it leaves the EU to Dublin and Frankfurt where it already has operations.

Today in Paris he went further.

He said there had been too much focus on what would happen on day one after Brexit. Ominously for the UK, he said that how many more jobs would go to centres all around the EU was no longer in the UK's control.

"What happens next is totally up to the EU, it's not up to Britain. And so once you have that first step, if the EU determines over time that they want to start to move a lot more jobs out of London into the EU, they can simply dictate that.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-40574650

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Still the same old nonsense. So how exactly would you do that then in the real world? How do you get to do even a single trade deal with the EU refusing to agree your trade schedules or approve a deal? How do you sell financial services if your subsidies have their banking licenses withheld?

Trump is in the real world is he not? Let's see how his trade war plays out shall we? Especially if he sticks tariffs on car imports, you'll soon see Ireland are just pissants within the EU dancing to the tune of Germany.

[TobiasM]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Trump is in the real world is he not? Let's see how his trade war plays out shall we? Especially if he sticks tariffs on car imports, you'll soon see Ireland are just pissants within the EU dancing to the tune of Germany.

Trumps an idiot, he is going to damage his own economy along with all the countries he is whacking tariffs on, including Britain. Trump doesn’t care one iota about how the UK fares out of Europe, he claims to care about America, but he only cares about the rich in America.

[3Wishes]

	Quote:	tobiasm
	trumps an idiot, he is going to damage his own economy along with all the countries he is whacking tariffs on, including britain. Trump doesn’t care one iota about how the uk fares out of europe, he claims to care about america, but he only cares about the rich in america himself.

ftfy.

[Odile]

Emily for PM - at least she is funny

https://www.facebook.com/Channel4New...31321719939875

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Trump is in the real world is he not? Let's see how his trade war plays out shall we? Especially if he sticks tariffs on car imports, you'll soon see Ireland are just pissants within the EU dancing to the tune of Germany.

There is only one little problem with your cunning plan, the UK is not the US and is not in a position to dictate to any of these blocks as it is discovering.

[Odile]

Always strikes me how many people don’t see that being in the EU/SM has struck us the right balance between capitalism and socialism in many ways. Providing us with the markets and prosperity to create jobs, but at the same time creating a club where those markets can be tempered by employment rights, consumer rights and ethics.

Because ethics and protections cost money. In the world of the hard Brexiters we are heading to, they are an irrelevant nuisance to be removed as soon as possible because they eat into profits and remove some of the absolute power of the markets. Pure globalist capitalism - and disaster capitalism too- where people are an expendable commodity.

In Corbyn’s ultra socialist world, people do matter, collectively rather than individually, but can be sacrificed for the greater good of ideological aims, just the same. And ethics and rights still cost money, and still need the commitment to upholding them from everyone who’s in the trading game. Whatever Corbyn thinks he wants, we just won’t have the money and we won’t have any say in the rules, on our own against countries like the US (particularly Trump’s US), who do not share those commitments.

This is what Brexit means.

[Odile]

In the meantime, Trump and Putin are planning to destabilise, weaken and split the EU - just at a time when we need to be strong and together - to realign the world order and combine with Russia against China, with EU as a vassal state. Even Fox News understands this ...

And THAT more than anything else, is the scariest thing ever...

	Quote:	Odile
	In the world of the hard Brexiters we are heading to

Have you been watching the news? There isn't going to be a hard Brexit.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	There is only one little problem with your cunning plan, the UK is not the US and is not in a position to dictate to any of these blocks as it is discovering.

Who said anything about dictating? I'm talking about negotiating. Thanks to the useless government the UK has neither a carrot to offer nor a stick to threaten with in these negotiations which means the EU can dictate what they want.

As for the EU, we're soon going to discover how "strong" it is. All very well imposing tit for tat tariffs, but it's a different kettle of fish when you have a US President threatening to pull defence. The EU was only ever able to embark on it's socialist nirvana experiment because someone else was picking up the tab for protection.

[pdofr]

	Quote:	Odile
	In the world of the hard Brexiters we are heading to, they are an irrelevant nuisance to be removed as soon as possible because they eat into profits and remove some of the absolute power of the markets. Pure globalist capitalism - and disaster capitalism too- where people are an expendable commodity.

9 reasons why (some) Brits hate Europe’s highest court

[amogles]

	Quote:	Odile
	In the meantime, Trump and Putin are planning to destabilise, weaken and split the EU - .

They don't need Trump or Putin for that. Merkel, Makron and Juncker are doing fine just by themselves.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	amogles
	They don't need Trump or Putin for that. Merkel, Makron and Juncker are doing fine just by themselves.

Although it's also a bit naive to think that there are no outside influences with a vested interest in throwing a spanner in the works, or at least be instrumental at giving a few strategic shoves here and there.

[amogles]

	Quote:	Sandgrounder
	Although it's also a bit naive to think that there are no outside influences with a vested interest in throwing a spanner in the works, or at least be instrumental at giving a few strategic shoves here and there.

There was a time that the EU was a bit like Switzerland. They always tried to find the broadest possible compromise. They always tried to get everybody on board with every decison. If anyboidy objected, that was taken seriously and they tried to find a solution. Sure, there were differnces back then too. But often oif technical in nature, and they were mostly overcome.

That sense of unity has been replaced by one of division. The EU is drifting into separate blocks who refuse to accept the validity of one another's arguments. Instead the bigger ones want to push their ways onto others. This is not of Putin's or Trump's making. Especally not Trump as it started long before Trump was elected. If Trump is throwing a spanner into the works, he is only able to do that because there are home-grown dysfunctions that are already tearing the EU apart.

The EU needs to get its own house in order rather than blaming others. Claiming it's Trump's fault is both lazy and unhelpful.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Who said anything about dictating? I'm talking about negotiating. Thanks to the useless government the UK has neither a carrot to offer nor a stick to threaten with in these negotiations which means the EU can dictate what they want. As for the EU, we're soon going to discover how "strong" it is. All very well imposing tit for tat tariffs, but it's a different kettle of fish when you have a US President threatening to pull defence. The EU was only ever able to embark on it's socialist nirvana experiment because someone else was picking up the tab for protection.

Tell me, how are the negiations on that UK-US trade agreement faring?

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	amogles
	The EU needs to get its own house in order rather than blaming others. Claiming it's Trump's fault is both lazy and unhelpful.

I'm not saying "it's Trump's fault" (nor anything as specifically clumsy ).

Just saying one has to be a bit naive to believe that there aren't ANY outside influences. I'd be more surprised if there WEREN'T shenanigans going on behind the scenes making little tweaks here and there.

[baboon]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	As for the EU, we're soon going to discover how "strong" it is. All very well imposing tit for tat tariffs, but it's a different kettle of fish when you have a US President threatening to pull defence. The EU was only ever able to embark on it's socialist nirvana experiment because someone else was picking up the tab for protection.

Well...:
1. Only about 20% of the US military spending goes towards NATO these days (saw this a few days ago but can't find the quote atm). Means their commitment to NATO is little different to the EU countries they criticise. Most goes on their program of interfering in the rest of the world.

2. Even without the US, EU NATO member military spending is some 5 times higher than Russia. I presume Russia is the enemy you believe we need military protection from.

3. The EU is certainly nowhere near a "socialist nirvana". But if it continues to protect us from the worst excesses of US or Chinese capitalism, more power to it.

[Odile]

so Farage went on and on, about how great it would be to emulate Norway and Switzerland, and now the **** thks we have forgotten?

https://youtu.be/fNCwcTu9U6U

and that a Norway style deal would be a disaster and betray the public vote? As he says 'really' !?!