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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #12501  
Old 16.07.2018, 14:50
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Please stop making up stuff, marton. DB doesn't do ad hominems. Never.

Trust me.
Sorry mate, I never done Latin at school.
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  #12502  
Old 16.07.2018, 15:01
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Please stop making up stuff, marton. DB doesn't do ad hominems. Never.

Trust me.
Thanks for putting me right about brutum fulmen, sincere apologies to all.
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  #12503  
Old 16.07.2018, 15:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The estimates from people who claim to 'be in the know' this morning were, there's between 35-42 letters already submitted, but the MPs want their summer holiday.

Johnson, Gove, Greening, Javid? Or do you see any more contenders?
Rees-Mogg, Mordaunt, Hunt (please god no!!) ?
No idea who would win, the contest would likely be a blood bath though. My fear is that for whoever wins it's too late now to get any sort of acceptable deal out of the EU. Best case is that a Brexiteer takes over, the UK accepts what's currently on the table, and then makes REAL preparations for life outside the EU and then goes back to the negotiating table. Brexit 2.0 if you will, not too dissimilar to how Ireland went from a Free State to a Republic. The key to this however is actually leaving now, because if the UK doesn't then it never will.

I'm certain historians will look back on Theresa May as one of the worst ever Prime Ministers the country has had. Everything she's touched has been a disaster. From triggering Article 50 whilst clearly unprepared, to making no plans for a no deal Brexit, to that unnecessary GE where she managed to blow a 15 pt lead, to making a deal with the DUP, to capitulating on her Brexit red lines. History will not be kind to Mrs. May.
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  #12504  
Old 16.07.2018, 15:37
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Hopefully Cameron doesn't escape his share of the blame either, jumping ship and leaving whoever replaced him as a lame duck.

Surely the thing to do now though, is to cancel Brexit, appoint an independant Brexit committee, weigh up the facts, and prepare a realistic Brexit strategy that we can all vote on in 6 months, or however long it takes to properly cost everything.

At the moment, we are pursuing something we have no idea about, without any preparation or research against an institution that has all the facts and all the cards. I am massively against Brexit, but if it has to happen, it has to be done properly and not in a way that leaves Britain drifting for generations, whilst the old folk who voted for it sit on their giant pensions and assets as the next two generations fight for proverbial scraps.
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  #12505  
Old 16.07.2018, 15:44
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

It has to be done properly but fast, that's where May failed. Slow gives the EU/remainers too much elbow room.
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  #12506  
Old 16.07.2018, 15:45
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It has to be done properly but fast...
Due to a lack of preparation, these two goals are mutually exclusive.
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  #12507  
Old 16.07.2018, 15:46
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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No idea who would win, the contest would likely be a blood bath though. My fear is that for whoever wins it's too late now to get any sort of acceptable deal out of the EU. Best case is that a Brexiteer takes over, the UK accepts what's currently on the table, and then makes REAL preparations for life outside the EU and then goes back to the negotiating table. Brexit 2.0 if you will, not too dissimilar to how Ireland went from a Free State to a Republic. The key to this however is actually leaving now, because if the UK doesn't then it never will.
More likely scenario: they leave May to stew "in power" and take the blame for a crap brexit that nobody (neither leavers nor remainers) really wants and then all hell lets loose within the Tory party as they battle for the inheritance?

Wasn't Cameron's referendum supposed to settle Tory differences over Europe once and for all?
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  #12508  
Old 16.07.2018, 15:48
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Due to a lack of preparation, these two goals are mutually exclusive.
That's where she needs to stop being British and become American . Decorum, preparations...equals political death. The only political figure you guys have that can afford her own pace is your queen.

Last edited by MusicChick; 16.07.2018 at 16:00.
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  #12509  
Old 16.07.2018, 15:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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That's where she needs to stop being Brittish and become American .
Nah, you're alright.
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  #12510  
Old 16.07.2018, 16:13
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Quote:
Faisal Islam‏Verified account @faisalislam
Faisal Islam Retweeted Zach Brown Govt accepts all 4 Rees Mogg amendments to Customs Bill - on no NI customs border, no fast track capacity to form customs union, leaving EU VAT regime, limiting capacity to collect tariff revenue for EU without reciprocity [ie what was in Facilitated customs agreement”...

Faisal Islam added,
Zach Brown @zachjourno

BREAKING: Rees Mogg amendment (one of four) to Trade Bill that would make Northern Ireland backstop illegal. Some interesting names on here - this is war
Show this thread
7:05 AM - 16 Jul 2018
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/stat...59164662190080
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  #12511  
Old 16.07.2018, 16:17
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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No idea who would win, the contest would likely be a blood bath though. My fear is that for whoever wins it's too late now to get any sort of acceptable deal out of the EU. Best case is that a Brexiteer takes over, the UK accepts what's currently on the table, and then makes REAL preparations for life outside the EU and then goes back to the negotiating table. Brexit 2.0 if you will, not too dissimilar to how Ireland went from a Free State to a Republic. The key to this however is actually leaving now, because if the UK doesn't then it never will.
Indeed, thats the scary thing and really explains the suicidal approach to brexit the tories are taking. The dog has managed to grab the steak and he's trying to wolf it down whilst he has the chance.
The tories know that it was a perfect storm of factors that led them to fluff their way through the referendum and that at any other point the same would not happen, particularly looking forward.
What is sad though is how misguided they are, thinking that returning to the EU can never happen and if they can just break our legs now then that will be it. By 2040 the UK will be part of Europe no matter whether we have to leave and come back or manage to hang on.

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More likely scenario: they leave May to stew "in power" and take the blame for a crap brexit that nobody (neither leavers nor remainers) really wants and then all hell lets loose within the Tory party as they battle for the inheritance?

Wasn't Cameron's referendum supposed to settle Tory differences over Europe once and for all?
A soft brexit though a less than ideal scenario would be a massive improvement on the Mad Max brexit the Thatcherites want to subject us to. If May can pull that off then I think the majority will come to forgive her.
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  #12512  
Old 16.07.2018, 16:19
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I wish May could fire people instead of waiting for them to flake out on her.
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  #12513  
Old 16.07.2018, 16:25
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I wish May could fire people instead of waiting for them to flake out on her.
Why?

What difference does it make to you? (honest question)
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  #12514  
Old 16.07.2018, 16:28
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

You can add the agreement to a Northern Ireland backstop to the long list of Theresa May's mistakes.
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  #12515  
Old 16.07.2018, 16:31
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Trump and Putin are planning to destabilise, weaken and split the EU
Works for me!

Tom
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  #12516  
Old 16.07.2018, 16:36
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Buried amongst all the other news today was the final figure for net EU migrants arriving in UK last year was ca. 100,000, a 5 year low.

Meanwhile over 200,000 non EU migrants arrived so the EU open door FMOP policy does not look so bad?

There were less than 5,000 arrivals from the V4!

Source
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  #12517  
Old 16.07.2018, 17:10
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Peston for PM

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Robert Peston‏Verified account @Peston
For flip sake, the Chequers Brexit plan seems already to be a dead parrot. Beautiful plumage though https://www.facebook.com/1498276767163730/posts/2107292476262153/ …7:41 AM - 16 Jul 2018
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1018868209557045248

Quote:
Faisal Islam‏Verified account @faisalislam
phoned up by middle ground Tory MP: “This is a s**tshow” - reports prominent PPS still in Government ringing around as alternative whip for ERG amendments... says Remainer MPs will now (today or tomorrow) push for full customs union to remind ERG of “mutually assured destruction”7:50 AM - 16 Jul 2018
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/stat...70493301092357
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  #12518  
Old 17.07.2018, 09:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Due to a lack of preparation, these two goals are mutually exclusive.
The big question if post-Brexit (say, something similar to Switzerland's Bilaterale if that were the aim) can actually be prepared while in. Since the UK can't negotiate before being out, everything beforehand has to be preliminary. Then when actually the UK is in limbo, that's May's biggest dilemma. Though it doesn't matter who's PM, everybody would be facing the same problem, broadly speaking.
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  #12519  
Old 17.07.2018, 09:06
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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The big question if post-Brexit (say, something similar to Switzerland's Bilaterale if that were the aim) can actually be prepared while in. Since the UK can't negotiate before being out, everything beforehand has to be preliminary. Then when actually the UK is in limbo, that's May's biggest dilemma. Though it doesn't matter who's PM, everybody would be facing the same problem, broadly speaking.
Yes, in the same way that a footballer cannot discuss terms with another club before his current club have accepted a transfer approach for him. That's why they have agents and others to do their dirty work for them.

I doubt there would be any way to stop an NGO or a group of private citizens from conducting a full assessment of Brexit pros and cons whilst the UK was inside the EU.
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  #12520  
Old 17.07.2018, 09:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Vote Leave has been fined £61,000 and reported to the police by the Electoral Commission, after the watchdog found “significant evidence” of coordination with another campaign group, BeLeave.

The watchdog said Vote Leave’s fines were punitive because it said the group had refused to co-operate fully with its investigation and declined to be interviewed.

Source

Vote Leave is an organisation that successfully campaigned for a Leave vote in the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum.

Founders: Dominic Cummings, Matthew Elliott

Key people: Gisela Stuart, Matthew Elliott, Dominic Cummings, Michael Gove, Boris Johnson

Farage was not involved with this group.
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