The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[amogles]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	How's the tunnel holding up? I got see sick on the fairy.

The tunnel is mostly under the ground.

Some of it is under the sea too.

Very useful for storing wine.

[marton]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	How's the tunnel holding up? I got see sick on the fairy.

"I got see sick on the fairy" "fairy nuff", any other comment that comes to mind would likely get me banned

[Urs Max]

	Quote:
	Yes this is silly, but in the category of ‘Why didn’t anybody mention this before.

Indeed, if only the Brits had been warned.

Oh wait, this was discussed on here last summer (around posts #9500 or so) based, among others, on this article.

	Quote:	MusicChick
	How's the tunnel holding up? I got see sick on the fairy.

In all likelihood the tunnle is a bilateral thing only, no need to involve the EU.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	"I got see sick on the fairy" "fairy nuff", any other comment that comes to mind would likely get me banned

Likewise when someone said in the Trump thread that the soldiers from Iowa or wherever come here to spread the gospel.

They definitely want to spread something, I just doubt it's the gospel.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	marton
	"I got see sick on the fairy" "fairy nuff", any other comment that comes to mind would likely get me banned

You wish. Maybe we can try, you will get a lot more done at home/garden/attick..

I think I'll ban myself for a week.

[Fish Paste]

How do flights from Pakistan, Taiwan, Chile and say Mozambique all manage to fly across Europe and UK and land in whatever airport they need, and yet come May 19th suddenly Europe is a no fly zone for UK planes?

Somehow, I don't believe it.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	Somehow, I don't believe it.

It's not for me to tell you what to believe. All I can do is offer the facts as they currently stand.

If you want a fuller understanding of the issues, this is a good article... https://www.clydeco.com/blog/brexit/...till-up-in-air

As for your point about airlines from "Pakistan, Taiwan, Chile and say Mozambique " being able to fly across Europe, that isn't always the case. Every country and every airline is subject to a number of agreements, alliances, and standards regarding aircraft safety and airline/airport security. The air industry changes minute by minute. This is an example... https://www.traveller24.com/News/Fli...anned-20170517

If the UK does have a hard Brexit, with any of the neccessary agreements null and void owing to lack of planning and time for renegotiation, then we have a problem. The US has already offered the UK and agreement that is worse than they currently have under the existinng EU-US Open Skies Agreement. Negotiations are ongoinng and expected to complete soon.

Further reading:

20 June 2018
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel...-a8407761.html

20 June 2018
http://atwonline.com/open-skies/faa-...k-ahead-brexit

27 June 2018
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel...-a8419156.html

10 July 2018
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...-idUKKBN1K022K

[marton]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	How do flights from Pakistan, Taiwan, Chile and say Mozambique all manage to fly across Europe and UK and land in whatever airport they need, and yet come May 19th suddenly Europe is a no fly zone for UK planes? Somehow, I don't believe it.

You might also care to look at the list of airlines banned or restricted in the EU?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	How do flights from Pakistan, Taiwan, Chile and say Mozambique all manage to fly across Europe and UK and land in whatever airport they need, and yet come May 19th suddenly Europe is a no fly zone for UK planes? Somehow, I don't believe it.

A50(3) go read it and note that every single agreement that the UK benefits from as a member of the EU will fall on exit. The UK needs to get it's skates on and negotiate new agreements covering this and much more, in addition to it's exit agreement and trade deal with the EU.

[Urs Max]

The sensible thing would be
- agree on the divorce bill (£60bln or however much) plus whatever else that entails
- get an agreement with the EU for the 10-12 years following Brexit that essentially keep the status quo, keeps subjecting the UK to EU law, but enables the UK to negotiate on whatever and with whomever negotiating is needed. Any deals reached with the EU that become effective before the 10-12yrs are over will automatically override the so far applicable EU regulation
- UK is completely out of the EU around 2030 or so

That would leave enough room for the UK government to manoeuvre, allow businesses to adapt, avoid unnecessary time pressure (which, as the US just proved, will be used by counterparties to get better deals than they previously had), provide enough time to build the necessary manpower, and reduce the risk of overlooking important aspects not least due to said insufficient manpower.

And perhaps most importantly, something along these lines would allow for a step-by-step Brexit rather than the rushed and deeply chaotic procedure that appears to await the British now.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The sensible thing would be... ...- get an agreement with the EU for the 10-12 years following Brexit that essentially keep the status quo, keeps subjecting the UK to EU law, but enables the UK to negotiate on whatever and with whomever negotiating is needed. Any deals reached with the EU that become effective before the 10-12yrs are over will automatically override the so far applicable EU regulation - UK is completely out of the EU around 2030 or so

Hallelujah! Somebody actually 'gets it'.

All the sound bites and short cuts in the World won't resolve the legal ramifications surrounding Brexit within the next couple of years.

Just going back to UK membership of EASA, this body falls under the indirect jurisdiction of the ECJ, so continued membership is abhorrent to hard Brexiteers. The proposal that the UK Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), completely takes over the role of the EASA is a possible solution, but the CAA has said it would take 10-15yrs to get their technical expertise up to the required level to replace the EASA. Even that would not solve the issue surrounding indirect jurisdiction of the ECJ in the event of an International incident.

https://news.sky.com/story/govt-to-s...-line-11151049

	Quote:	Urs Max
	... provide enough time to build the necessary manpower...

The role of 'Head of Aviation EU Exit Negotiations' was only advertised by the government last month! Beggars belief.

https://www.independent.co.uk/travel...-a8407761.html

That's just aviation, one industry of many who are expected to sort themselves out within a few short months when even the government doesn't know anything for certain.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	How do flights from Pakistan, Taiwan, Chile and say Mozambique all manage to fly across Europe and UK and land in whatever airport they need, and yet come May 19th suddenly Europe is a no fly zone for UK planes? Somehow, I don't believe it.

The Chicago convention of 1946 established that for airlines of a country to overfly another country the two countries concerned need to agree this. These agreements take the form of 'Air Services Agreements' which exchange overfly rights (1st freedom), as well as rights for transit stops (2nd freedom), rights to pick up and drop off passengers and freight (3rd/4th freedom) (There are five other freedoms).

So British airlines need 1st freedom rights to overfly the EU (and vv). Agreements are necessary between the two parties.

Complicating the matter is that British Airways is not British (it is owned by IAG a company registered in and based in Spain), nor is Virgin Atlantic (owned in part by Delta (US) and AF/KL (EU). As EU airlines they don't need 1st freedom rights to overfly the EU, but they would need rights to overfly, transit, pick up and drop of passengers and freight in the UK.

Who thought it would be as confusing as this?

[Fish Paste]

Sounds even more daunting than the great cheddar shortage that awaits us .

	Quote:	st2lemans
	I doubt that many who voted for it live outside of the UK. Tom

Wahoo- you would think so - but look at Sir Lawson... and there are even people on this Forum who did - and 1000s of expats in France, Spain and all over EU - thos who have never integrated, only meet other expats, order on-line from Tesco twice a month to be delivered in France, never learnt the language ...and who believe they will just be able to continue to pick and choose, go back and forth as they like, have access to health care on both sides, etc. Just as the UK is now severely divided, so are expats in the EU. Thos who did vote for Brexit are no longer best friends with their neighbours who did not, for sure.

	Quote:
	...order on-line from Tesco twice a month to be delivered in France,...

Wow! Do people do that? That's hilarious..!

Visions of a delivery bloke driving over to France from Tezzies every couple of weeks with food parcels of Hobnobs and Branston Pickle...

[MusicChick]

	Quote:
	Wahoo- you would think so - but look at Sir Lawson... and there are even people on this Forum who did - and 1000s of expats in France, Spain and all over EU - thos who have never integrated, only meet other expats, order on-line from Tesco twice a month to be delivered in France, never learnt the language ...and who believe they will just be able to continue to pick and choose, go back and forth as they like, have access to health care on both sides, etc. Just as the UK is now severely divided, so are expats in the EU. Thos who did vote for Brexit are no longer best friends with their neighbours who did not, for sure.

That's pretty ridiculous. Look how kind and understanding everyone is here on EF, patient, hearing other opinions out..

	Quote:
	Wow! Do people do that? That's hilarious..! Visions of a delivery bloke driving over to France from Tezzies every couple of weeks with food parcels of Hobnobs and Branston Pickle...

Yes, there are specialised companies who do that- People order on line, and those companies pick up from Tescos and drive to Dordogneshire with dates and times for various pick up points.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Fish Paste
	How do flights from Pakistan, Taiwan, Chile and say Mozambique all manage to fly across Europe and UK and land in whatever airport they need, and yet come May 19th suddenly Europe is a no fly zone for UK planes? Somehow, I don't believe it.

"Who would have thought healthcare is so complicated! It's unbelievable!" (C) Donald Trump

You appear to be missing a crucial bit:
Thanks to the current chaos EU airlines don't know whether they'll be able land in the UK and vv, once Brexit has happened. They simply lack the basis to plan for personnel, airplanes, maintenance, food/snacks/beverages, hotels for the crews, airport security, and probably a gazillion other things that don't come to mind immediately.

So airline managements can
a) assume that things will be fine. If they're wrong their company will incur huge losses, management will definitely be sued to hell and back for their reckless and completely unprofessional decision
b) assume they won't be able to flyover and land. Cut personnel, put airplanes on hold, cancel supply contracts, etc. Since this is based on what's known now there's probably no grounds for management to be held personally liable.

It should be obvious which option managements will pick.

The time for that is just about now because, as has been mentioned, flight schedules on 2nd and 3rd quarter 2019 are coordinated internationally on a European level starting October, so airlines must submit their schedules by September, for which they need to can't assume either a) or b) above.

Just to give you a taste, see here for Switzerland's set of international agreements on air traffic and related issues.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Thos who did vote for Brexit are no longer best friends with their neighbours who did not, for sure.

I've heard from friends who live in Spain that there are some people who managed to get themselves barred from every bar and restaurant in one Lanzarote town.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The sensible thing would be - agree on the divorce bill (£60bln or however much) plus whatever else that entails - get an agreement with the EU for the 10-12 years following Brexit that essentially keep the status quo, keeps subjecting the UK to EU law, but enables the UK to negotiate on whatever and with whomever negotiating is needed. Any deals reached with the EU that become effective before the 10-12yrs are over will automatically override the so far applicable EU regulation - UK is completely out of the EU around 2030 or so That would leave enough room for the UK government to manoeuvre, allow businesses to adapt, avoid unnecessary time pressure (which, as the US just proved, will be used by counterparties to get better deals than they previously had), provide enough time to build the necessary manpower, and reduce the risk of overlooking important aspects not least due to said insufficient manpower. And perhaps most importantly, something along these lines would allow for a step-by-step Brexit rather than the rushed and deeply chaotic procedure that appears to await the British now.

Sensible for the EU is to drawn a line under this and move on to deal with other more pressing issues... they want to bring this to a conclusion before the next parliamentary election.

There is nothing sensible for them about continue this kind of nonsense for the next 10 or 12 years.