The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[amogles]

	Quote:	greenmount
	I think UK couldn't have replaced France's importance on the continent anyway (at least culturally). And I don't think they needed to "get" Europe, or they wanted that.

What does it mean to "get Europe". Every country has a special view on Europe which may be in part accurate and in part misconception.

Yes Minister explained it all very well

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rvYuoWyk8iU

How does this work?

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	amogles
	First of all, I wouldn't say that what I said was a left wing perspective, but one of pragmatism and empiricism. If something works (sort of) don't smash it and replace it with something that just makes things worse. The NHS is a success by and large, especially if you don't focus on recent years but on its full history. This is why people are rightly proud of it. There are obviously things that need fixing but they can be fixed. I think part of a conservative viewpoint is to be able to recognize things that work and not shoot them down because they were somebody else's idea or came out of somebody else's ideology. I think it is more of a symptom of ideology-driven positions that Sandgrounder managed to put in a snarky comment, and then get a thank from Blueangel, although under other conditions it would be them who would be defending the NHS. See how things work? Yes, I know, I've probably opened a can of worms here.

I think to certain extent human nature isn't really to look for progress but to agree together on something. Accord is more valuable for survival in social setting than intellectual ownership and honesty. Social aspect. Jonathan Livingston Seagull was a dreamer.

[marton]

	Quote:	amogles
	What does it mean to "get Europe". Every country has a special view on Europe which may be in part accurate and in part misconception. Yes Minister explained it all very well

What better than to quote the UK's ambassador to the EU, Sir Ivan Rogers, who resigned in January 2017.

The BBC revealed he had privately told ministers a UK-EU trade deal might take 10 years to finalise, sparking criticism from some MPs. Ministers have said a deal can be done within two years. Well here we are over two years since the vote and nobody has a clue what the post Brexit relationship will look like.

Former Conservative cabinet minister John Redwood said Sir Ivan had made a "very wise decision" to resign, saying his leaked advice suggested he did "not really have his heart in" Brexit, believing it to be "very difficult and long-winded". He said the new ambassador should be someone "who thinks it's straightforward". Straightforward? Thus proving what an idiot Redwood is.

Sir Ivan Rogers urged his fellow British civil servants in Brussels to assert their independence by challenging “ill-founded arguments and muddled thinking”. "I hope that you will support each other in those difficult moments where you have to deliver messages that are disagreeable to those who need to hear them.”"

@amogles This is a very serious business potentially effecting the quality of life for many millions of people but do enjoy "Yes Minister".

[marton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	I think UK couldn't have replaced France's importance on the continent anyway (at least culturally). And I don't think they needed to "get" Europe, or they wanted that. Seriously, why should we meet other countries' or other people's expectations? In a way I like this old fashioned self-sufficiency.

But there is no self-sufficiency. UK needs strong trade partners to be successful.

At the moment we have no idea how, or if, we will continue exporting to the EU, our largest Trade, after next March.

We have no idea when, how or with whom we will have free trade deals with after March.

This is not self-sufficiency, it is self destruction.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	marton
	But there is no self-sufficiency. UK needs strong trade partners to be successful. At the moment we have no idea how, or if, we will continue exporting to the EU, our largest Trade, after next March. We have no idea when, how or with whom we will have free trade deals with after March. This is not self-sufficiency, it is self destruction.

And what was the alternative? Imposing progress or your definition of it, top-down? So people voted. They will vote next time. Maybe they will want to get informed differently, before they vote. I still think that interpreting Brexit as either lack of info or falling for populists, is wrong and condesceding. Voters voted as they saw fit.

The situation is very similar in all countries in our area. To try to explain that people vote "wrongly" because they either naievely fall victims to manipulation or are deprived of the "correct" info, is dillusional. People vote for certain idea of progress. If it proves wrong, they will vote differently next time. I wouldn't see things so absolutely.

The exaggeration is tiring: Brexit must be the end of the world. Trump is the most evilest political figure on earth. Macron is the most smooth. Merkel fight for the noblest of all ideas. But voters knew squat nothing and got confused? Self destruction? March being the end of the world? I don't think so. Political world needs a wake up call. And solid work. The wake up call happened in the UK and the US. Now the work part awaits. Holding those in power accountable while helping them. You could show others how to do it. I understand that the uncertainty is unsettling, but cannot be worse than recent Yugo wars in Europe or post communist revolutions, etc. Buckle up.

[marton]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	And what was the alternative? Imposing progress or your definition of it, top-down? So people voted. They will vote next time. Maybe they will want to get informed differently, before they vote. I still think that interpreting Brexit as either lack of info or falling for populists, is wrong and condesceding. Voters voted as they saw fit. The situation is very similar in all countries in our area. To try to explain that people vote "wrongly" because they either naievely fall victims to manipulation or are deprived of the "correct" info, is dillusional. People vote for certain idea of progress. If it proves wrong, they will vote differently next time. I wouldn't see things so absolutely. The exaggeration is tiring: Brexit must be the end of the world. Trump is the most evilest political figure on earth. Macron is the most smooth. Merkel fight for the noblest of all ideas. But voters knew squat nothing and got confused? Self destruction? March being the end of the world? I don't think so. Political world needs a wake up call. And solid work. The wake up call happened in the UK and the US. Now the work part awaits. Holding those in power accountable while helping them. You could show others how to do it. I understand that the uncertainty is unsettling, but cannot be worse than recent Yugo wars in Europe or post communist revolutions, etc. Buckle up.

Brexit is not the end of the world.
However the UK is an export driven economy and in 7 months time the UK will leave the EU without any idea today who the UK will export to and under what conditions despite the last two years of planning and negotiations.
This is a fact, not an exaggeration .

True it "cannot be worse than recent Yugo wars in Europe or post communist revolutions" but I assume people voting Leave were hoping for a better and brighter future not a post war economy?

It is irrelevant why people voted, the situation is what it is.

	Quote:	MusicChick
	The situation is very similar in all countries in our area. To try to explain that people vote "wrongly" because they either naively fall victims to manipulation or are deprived of the "correct" info, is disillusion. People vote for certain idea of progress. If it proves wrong, they will vote differently next time. I wouldn't see things so absolutely.

Mildly concerning that people think it's ok to be "naive victims of manipulation, deprived of the correct info" when it comes to referendums, especially on the scale of the Jackanory-fantasy stuff that came out of the Brexit vote.

Obviously you have to take campaigning with a pinch of salt everywhere but it's interesting that you find the wholesale lies of the EU Referendum, its deception and the duplicity of people in public office so acceptable to the point of shouting anyone down who points it out. Why are you so adamant that this is a stone that shouldn't be uncovered? Are you afraid to speak out against authority?

Also, re voting differently "next time" - what "next time" are you referring to? Brexit is happening, there's no going back unless the government pulls the plug. Nobody is getting a "next time".

Reading back through your posts, it's becoming clear that you don't really understand the whole EU/Brexit thing. Your opinions must be based on some kind of facts you have been fed or have picked up but most of it is wrong or misunderstood.

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	marton
	Brexit is not the end of the world. However the UK is an export driven economy and in 7 months time the UK will leave the EU without any idea today who the UK will export to and under what conditions despite the last two years of planning and negotiations. This is a fact, not an exaggeration . True it "cannot be worse than recent Yugo wars in Europe or post communist revolutions" but I assume people voting Leave were hoping for a better and brighter future not a post war economy? It is irrelevant why people voted, the situation is what it is.

Any change always looks scary. Why should the UK be exempt from needing a change. All systems need it. I think it will work better in the end, than what has been up until now.

Better and brighter is always the carrot, isn't it. The stick will be in the optimalisation. I find it scarier in the hands of the EU (they were not "optimalizing" us so well), than in the hands of the Brits. The fine tuning will be up to you. Not asking unenvolved parties for favors in exchange of jobs/safety/investments returns. Big Brother never cares of individual needs of small communities. It is easuer to discipline and change one's government than push on the EU moloch.

	Quote:	MusicChick
	I still think that interpreting Brexit as either lack of info or falling for populists, is wrong and condesceding. Voters voted as they saw fit.

I'm not sure why you are trying to paint these two sentences as mutually exclusive. They are not. Voters will always vote as they see fit, but they might see things "incorrectly" if they have been fed bum info.

[marton]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	Any change always looks scary. Why should the UK be exempt from needing a change. All systems need it. I think it will work better in the end, than what has been up until now. Better and brighter is always the carrot, isn't it. The stick will be in the optimalisation. I find it scarier in the hands of the EU (they were not "optimalizing" us so well), than in the hands of the Brits. The fine tuning will be up to you. Not asking unenvolved parties for favors in exchange of jobs/safety/investments returns. Big Brother never cares of individual needs of small communities. It is easuer to discipline and change one's government than push on the EU moloch.

Thank you for your optimism that it will work better in the end.
The British expression for this is "it will be alright on the night"!

So far the facts are against this.

People were bleating on at the start of this that the UK could continue trading under World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules.
So where are we now?
The UK applied to the WTO (with EU support) to adopt the same tariffs as are currently approved for the EU.
The result was our friends like the US, Australia and others rejected this application; of course, they do not want the UK to have the same favourable trading conditions as currently.
These are the countries who are top of the UK list for free trade deals; does not look like they are in any sort of mood to offer good deals does it?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	The exaggeration is tiring: Brexit must be the end of the world.

Aptly put. It includes yours, how you characterise the opposition.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	marton
	The result was our friends like the US, Australia and others rejected this application; of course, they do not want the UK to have the same favourable trading conditions as currently.

That is simply not the case. The problem is that the proposal includes transferring part of the trade schedule amounts from the EU to the UK and that is a big disadvantage for them. At the moment they can sell their quota throughout the entire EU market so there is no danger in it not being fully taken up. If however a block is transferred to the UK and if it is not taken up they loose it.

For the US/Australia/NZ the ideal solution would be a new quota for the UK. But the EU does not want this as they wish to have the the quota reduced in line with the reduction in their market size.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	That is simply not the case. The problem is that the proposal includes transferring part of the trade schedule amounts from the EU to the UK and that is a big disadvantage for them. At the moment they can sell their quota throughout the entire EU market so there is no danger in it not being fully taken up. If however a block is transferred to the UK and if it is not taken up they loose it. For the US/Australia/NZ the ideal solution would be a new quota for the UK. But the EU does not want this as they wish to have the the quota reduced in line with the reduction in their market size.

Can you elaborate a bit? Are you talking about agricultural goods?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Can you elaborate a bit? Are you talking about agricultural goods?

Google mate, Google...

Well, is the Brexit Beast on the turn?

Mr. Cable has even found his voice and is calling for a people's vote, saying centre of gravity is shifting to second Brexit vote.

And Boris is shifting too, making moves.. shifty, more like.

[McTAVGE]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...itch-to-remain


It is shifting alright!

	Quote:	marton
	Not as easy as you imply, read here.

Yes it is.

So leben wir vom deutschen Kindergeld

[greenmount]

	Quote:	marton
	But there is no self-sufficiency. UK needs strong trade partners to be successful. At the moment we have no idea how, or if, we will continue exporting to the EU, our largest Trade, after next March. We have no idea when, how or with whom we will have free trade deals with after March. This is not self-sufficiency, it is self destruction.

It seems that these are the most important things pro-Brexiteers conveniently left out of their campaign. It was an extremely well played game for fetching the power at any costs and using any means. Some people would find excuses for that, with the conviction that the superiority of their ideals deserve anything.I wouldn't be so sure about that but I don't think we can change anyone's deep rooted convictions. No matter how false or ridiculous they are. I would say though - be careful what you wish for, it may come true.

But. People voted. Those who wanted a different outcome should have put more effort in the Remain campaign, me thinks. It is surprising that in a world where media has so much power there are still people who believe that the truth and superiority of an idea will prevail no matter what. Maybe in time or in specific situations, but not for voting and not for social experiments conducted using the whole arsenal of social engineering.
Anyway, I am sure things will be solved out some way or another and I agree it is not the end of the world.
Let's hope for the best.

[marton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	It seems that these are the most important things pro-Brexiteers conveniently left out of their campaign. It was an extremely well played game for fetching the power at any costs and using any means. Some people would find excuses for that, with the conviction that the superiority of their ideals deserve anything.I wouldn't be so sure about that but I don't think we can change anyone's deep rooted convictions. No matter how false or ridiculous they are. I would say though - be careful what you wish for, it may come true. But. People voted. Those who wanted a different outcome should have put more effort in the Remain campaign, me thinks. It is surprising that in a world where media has so much power there are still people who believe that the truth and superiority of an idea will prevail no matter what. Maybe in time or in specific situations, but not for voting and not for social experiments conducted using the whole arsenal of social engineering. Anyway, I am sure things will be solved out some way or another and I agree it is not the end of the world. Let's hope for the best.

Triggered me to look at what the official Vote_Leave campaign said about next steps here.

Some quotes (do not know whether to laugh or cry!)
"After we Vote Leave, we will immediately be able to start negotiating new trade deals which could enter into force straight after the UK leaves the EU."

"The UK will also take back its seat on the World Trade Organization and other international bodies, becoming a more influential force for free trade and friendly cooperation."

"EU law prevents the UK from cutting value added tax on household energy bills. This hits the least wealthy households the hardest, which spend on average three times as much of their income on energy as the wealthiest households.
If we Vote Leave, we will be able to scrap this unfair and damaging tax. "

"Our EU contributions are enough to build a new, fully-staffed NHS hospital every week."

"When Greenland left the EU in 1985, it secured a free trade deal with the EU that allowed it to sell its fish to the EU tariff-free. Britain is a much larger economy and far more important to the EU - we are certain to secure an even better deal. "

Looks like it's could be as difficult to enter the UK as the US post-Brexit. Heathrow non-EU passport queues reach 2½ hours.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-45165222