The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Nope, not here. The outcome will still be worthwhile in the end. It's clear the government have made a pigs ear of the negotiations and the preparations for no deal, but that's hardly the Brexiteers fault. The most important thing now is that the UK leaves before Brexit gets sabotaged.

WTF?? at very best the uk will pay the EU the same, or thereabouts, as it did before, we adopt all the EU's laws, will have the same EU trade deal, will have the same EU immigration and free movement rules, BUT won't be able to vote.

and that's at very best.

A hard brexit doesn't bare thinking about, especially if you happen to live in the SE or near a port.

negotiations?? the EU doesn't need to negotiate, there will be 447m people left in the EU once the UK leaves, that's plenty left to pick up the slack, any company with any brains will look at the figures, 447m customers with no red tape or 65m customers and loads of grief getting my goods / services to a wider market - where shall I invest

[bigblue2]

and I'll laugh my socks off when all the leave voters start moaning about how expensive spain is now, how they get so few euro's to the pound, how they have to queue for hours at the airport, how roaming charges have gone through the roof, how everyone else at the resort is laughing at them.

	Quote:	bigblue2
	WTF?? at very best the uk will pay the EU the same, or thereabouts, as it did before, we adopt all the EU's laws, will have the same EU trade deal, will have the same EU immigration and free movement rules, BUT won't be able to vote. and that's at very best.

The UK won't agree to what you've written, and what you've written isn't the Chequers deal either.

I see three scenarios from here on in:

1) EU and UK agree to Chequers based deal, it gets through parliament (very difficult to see at this stage), and we have this Softish Brexit. Not the end of the world as Theresa May will be gone soon after and there's a good chance a Brexiteer could get elected to power to start working on Brexit 2.0.
2) EU and UK agree to Chequers based deal, it doesn't get through parliament, and there's no deal.
3) EU and UK don't come to a deal.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK won't agree to what you've written, and what you've written isn't the Chequers deal either. I see three scenarios from here on in: 1) EU and UK agree to Chequers based deal, it gets through parliament (very difficult to see at this stage), and we have this Softish Brexit. Not the end of the world as Theresa May will be gone soon after and there's a good chance a Brexiteer could get elected to power to start working on Brexit 2.0. 2) EU and UK agree to Chequers based deal, it doesn't get through parliament, and there's no deal. 3) EU and UK don't come to a deal.

??? whatever was agreed at chequers is totally irrelevant,
whatever is agreed in parliament is totally irrelevant,
the EU wasn't there, they never agreed to it, its all just words - this is what we'll ask for, and the EU has already shot them down.

The UK likes to kid themselves they have the upper hand, they don't, everyone else in the world knows they have a losing hand.

at the end of the day the UK has 2 options,
1. bluff till then end and hope the EU folds (they won't) and hard brexit
2. bluff till the end and take whatever the EU throws it at the last minute.


ETA brexit 2.0 ???? what planet are you on??? you think the EU will ever re-negotiate???

	Quote:	bigblue2
	??? whatever was agreed at chequers is totally irrelevant, whatever is agreed in parliament is totally irrelevant, the EU wasn't there, they never agreed to it, its all just words - this is what we'll ask for, and the EU had already shot them down. The UK likes to kid themselves they have the upper hand, they don't, everyone else in the world knows they have a losing hand. at the end of the day the UK has 2 options, 1. bluff till then end and hope the EU folds (they won't) and hard brexit 2. bluff till the end and take whatever the EU throws it at the last minute.

The UK isn't Greece, it won't fold. The EU Commission has consistently underestimated the UK electorate, you'd think they'd have learned by now. This is why the odds of no deal have now shortened with the book makers.

People keep harping on about how terrible no deal will be for the UK, however it'll be shit for the EU too. Especially Ireland. The consequences will obviously be lessened, but there will none the less be consequences.

[bigblue2]

and in case you where in any doubt about how prepared the uk is with brexit, last week the home office decided to advertise for a brexit tech boss!!!! you know, to sort out things like borders, immigration, biometrics systems by 2019, so at best say they fill the position within 4 months (1 months interview and offer, 3 months notice) that leaves them 4 months to evaluate, order and implement whole new systems LOL LOL it takes uk gov agencies 4 months to order a new jar of coffee

(yes I've done uk gov contracts)

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	bigblue2
	and I'll laugh my socks off when all the leave voters start moaning about how expensive spain is now, how they get so few euro's to the pound, how they have to queue for hours at the airport, how roaming charges have gone through the roof, how everyone else at the resort is laughing at them.

regarding the airport: this is more about Schengen / non-Schengen. There will not be much of a difference.

regarding the resort: that doesn't happen now at all

In general, I think you can first measure in 20-30 years from now if the Brexit was successful. In short-term there might be some extreme effects.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK isn't Greece, it won't fold. The EU Commission has consistently underestimated the UK electorate, you'd think they'd have learned by now. This is why the odds of no deal have now shortened with the book makers. People keep harping on about how terrible no deal will be for the UK, however it'll be shit for the EU too. Especially Ireland. The consequences will obviously be lessened, but there will none the less be consequences.

you're american - right?

the UK has been a thorn in the EU's side since day 1, back in the EEC days they didn't even want us in the club, they aren't too upset we're leaving, votes will be a hell of a lot easier without our veto.

those are some thick rose tinted glasses if you think the EU cares about the UK or Ireland.

	Quote:	k_and_e
	In general, I think you can first measure in 20-30 years from now if the Brexit was successful. In short-term there might be some extreme effects.

Project Leave kept that little gem quiet, didn't they?

A 20-30 year gamble is going to be pretty devastating if it turns out to be wrong.

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	regarding the airport: this is more about Schengen / non-Schengen. There will not be much of a difference.

Planes still carry cargo, which will now have to be checked. ATC is also another huge grey area.

[k_and_e]

	Quote:
	Project Leave kept that little gem quiet, didn't they? A 20-30 year gamble is going to be pretty devastating if it turns out to be wrong.

no, i don't think anyone kept that quiet. it would be the same for any such change of joining (or leaving) such big changes. Not more than common sense.

[J2488]

Hilarious.


We've gone from 'We'll be able to negotiate new profitable trade deals the day after article 50'


all the way to:


'Brexit 2.0 will make sure the whole thing turns out to be slightly beneficial, in 20-30 years, and the government promises there will be adequate food'.


Hilarious if it wasnt so tragic.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	J2488
	'Brexit 2.0 will make sure the whole thing turns out to be slightly beneficial, in 20-30 years, and the government promises there will be adequate food'. Hilarious if it wasnt so tragic.

How easily some people will sell two generations for the sake of politics.

[bigblue2]

Lets look at the uk car sector,

the uk produces some 1.67m cars per year
the rest of the EU 17.93m

In the uk it employs 180k people directly, and some 600k indirectly.

The UK has around 32m officially employed people.

The majority of the cars are exported, and all the manufactures are multinationals, they can setup shop anywhere, and have factories in at least one other EU state, on top of that they have countries begging them to move production to them, all source components from eu suppliers and their other EU factories, eg ford making engines in dagenham and sending them to germany.

given that vauxhall has been sold to peugeot do you really see the french supporting uk workers over their own???

without a status quo deal what do you think will happen?? you're looking at upto 1m jobs in the motor trade and related up and moving.

Now,

what about the financial services industry??? germany and france have made no secret of the fact they would love to get their hands on londons slice of that pie.

[3Wishes]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The UK isn't Greece, it won't fold...

As best I can tell, there's not really a "no fold" option though...is there? I get the impression the EU has all the power in this game. The UK can propose terms left and right and the EU can bat them away like flies and wait for a hard Brexit. Oder?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	People keep harping on about how terrible no deal will be for the UK, however it'll be shit for the EU too. Especially Ireland. The consequences will obviously be lessened, but there will none the less be consequences.

That bit I agree with.

	Quote:	3Wishes
	As best I can tell, there's not really a "no fold" option though...is there? I get the impression the EU has all the power in this game. The UK can propose terms left and right and the EU can bat them away like flies and wait for a hard Brexit. Oder?

This is why at the moment "no deal" seems the likeliest result. The EU Commission is will unlikely accept Chequers, and neither will Chequers get through parliament. Checquers is already further than many Brexiteers were willing to budge.

It's not that the EU "hold all the power", it's just their inflexibility in their approach to negotiations.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's not that the EU "hold all the power", it's just their inflexibility in their approach to negotiations.

Semantics aside, doesn't that amount to the same thing? If they didn't have all the power, they wouldn't have the luxury of their inflexibility.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	k_and_e
	regarding the airport: this is more about Schengen / non-Schengen. There will not be much of a difference.

Nonsense of course it will make a very big difference cargo is shipped by air and in particular perishable goods and meds. Which will all not be subject to inspection and documentation. The delay will see good perish or simply being unavailable.

	Quote:	k_and_e
	In general, I think you can first measure in 20-30 years from now if the Brexit was successful. In short-term there might be some extreme effects.

I think you're in terms of timing, but the problems that todays generation expect instant gratification and they simply will not wait that long.

	Quote:
	Semantics aside, doesn't that amount to the same thing? If they didn't have all the power, they wouldn't have the luxury of their inflexibility.

They don't really have the luxury of inflexibility though. Not reaching a deal will be detrimental to the EU.

	Quote:
	Semantics aside, doesn't that amount to the same thing? If they didn't have all the power, they wouldn't have the luxury of their inflexibility.

We should change the thread title: The Brexit splitting hairs thread