The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Odile]

So, a Referendum on the final deal would break trust in Democracy, she says.

But of course, feeding massive lies, with fraud to boot- to push people to vote for something - which turns out to be a total disaster- and then say 'ahahah you voted for it- so there - even if it destroys your job, your NHS, our GDP, etc, etc, etc ...is truly going to show 'Democracy' at its best - for sure.

[marton]

	Quote:	Odile
	So, a Referendum on the final deal would break trust in Democracy, she says. But of course, feeding massive lies, with fraud to boot- to push people to vote for something - which turns out to be a total disaster- and then say 'ahahah you voted for it- so there - even if it destroys your job, your NHS, our GDP, etc, etc, etc ...is truly going to show 'Democracy' at its best - for sure.

But a general election every few years that can change the ruling Government does not break trust in Democracy?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Odile
	So, a Referendum on the final deal would break trust in Democracy, she says.

But how exactly is such a referendum supposed to work? The 37 other regional and national parliaments plus the EU parliament has to approve it as well. So what do you do if one of them rejects it after you vote to accept it? Or if they reject it before you hold a vote?

[Odile]

Jason J Hunter
‏ @JasonJHunter

Wanna know what the UK proposal is for handling customs after Brexit?

Alright then here ya go, it's very simple really.....
00:59 - 2 sept. 2018

2/ If the UK imports something from outside the EU and then that product is shipped into the EU then the UK collect the EU tariff and pay it on to the EU once the goods have been exported onwards.

3/ Say for example we import a Harley Davidson motorcycle valued at £10,000 into the UK and the EU have a 10% tariff then if that bike is then exported into an EU-27 country then we would pay the EU £1,000.

4/ Easy eh?

Let's look at another example. Say we import 20 tons of beef from Argentina (at £1,000 per ton with a 10% EU tariff) and 2 tons are shipped into the EU we would then pass on the tariff of £200 on the 2 tons.

5/ See I told ya it'd be easy. Oh but wait.... what if we use 10 tons of that beef as materials for making beef curry and then sell on that curry as a ready meal into the EU-27? We would have to calculate the proportion of the meal that matches the beef tariff from Argentina.

6/ Oh and if we are importing vegetables in that meal from Asia then we'd have to look at the tariff on each ingredient and then calculate how much we owe the EU.

What about car parts?

7/ Say we export a car into the EU built by Nissan in Sunderland? Valued at £20,000 export price we'd have to identify the value of specific parts that came from the EU (with a tariff), identify what parts came from outside the EU

8/ (with different tariffs) and then when it's exported into the EU deduct the tariffs on the parts from the EU and pass on the tariffs we collected on non-EU parts.

9/ Getting more complicated now eh? Bear in mind that a car has 30,000 parts!

We'd have to do this for all 4,500 plus product nomenclature (product groups) that we trade with the EU..

10/ bear in mind just one product group like steel plate has over 3,200 different grades of steel and you can begin to see the size of the complexity.

And THIS my friends is the top suggestion that Theresa May is

11/ still trying to get all her Cabinet and party to agree on from the Body Bag Summit at Chequers, despite the fact that it's already been ruled out by the European Union as completly unrealistic and unworkable. And they've categorically stated that the EU will not allow

12/12 a 3rd country to collect tariffs and duty on its behalf. If there was a dispute then where would the UK as a 3rd country go for resolution outside the EU? The incompetence of this Government is simply astounding. It's almost as if they don't know what they are doing!

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Odile
	Jason J Hunter ‏ @JasonJHunter Wanna know what the UK proposal is for handling customs after Brexit? Alright then here ya go, it's very simple really..... 00:59 - 2 sept. 2018 2/ If the UK imports something from outside the EU and then that product is shipped into the EU then the UK collect the EU tariff and pay it on to the EU once the goods have been exported onwards. 3/ Say for example we import a Harley Davidson motorcycle valued at £10,000 into the UK and the EU have a 10% tariff then if that bike is then exported into an EU-27 country then we would pay the EU £1,000. 4/ Easy eh? Let's look at another example. Say we import 20 tons of beef from Argentina (at £1,000 per ton with a 10% EU tariff) and 2 tons are shipped into the EU we would then pass on the tariff of £200 on the 2 tons. 5/ See I told ya it'd be easy. Oh but wait.... what if we use 10 tons of that beef as materials for making beef curry and then sell on that curry as a ready meal into the EU-27? We would have to calculate the proportion of the meal that matches the beef tariff from Argentina. 6/ Oh and if we are importing vegetables in that meal from Asia then we'd have to look at the tariff on each ingredient and then calculate how much we owe the EU. What about car parts? 7/ Say we export a car into the EU built by Nissan in Sunderland? Valued at £20,000 export price we'd have to identify the value of specific parts that came from the EU (with a tariff), identify what parts came from outside the EU 8/ (with different tariffs) and then when it's exported into the EU deduct the tariffs on the parts from the EU and pass on the tariffs we collected on non-EU parts. 9/ Getting more complicated now eh? Bear in mind that a car has 30,000 parts! We'd have to do this for all 4,500 plus product nomenclature (product groups) that we trade with the EU.. 10/ bear in mind just one product group like steel plate has over 3,200 different grades of steel and you can begin to see the size of the complexity. And THIS my friends is the top suggestion that Theresa May is 11/ still trying to get all her Cabinet and party to agree on from the Body Bag Summit at Chequers, despite the fact that it's already been ruled out by the European Union as completly unrealistic and unworkable. And they've categorically stated that the EU will not allow 12/12 a 3rd country to collect tariffs and duty on its behalf. If there was a dispute then where would the UK as a 3rd country go for resolution outside the EU? The incompetence of this Government is simply astounding. It's almost as if they don't know what they are doing!

CH manages OK to pay customs fees in both directions just like the UK will do. It's not a great challenge to people who run business's. The sheer amount of EU regulations over the last 25 years have caused far more sleepless nights.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	CH manages OK to pay customs fees in both directions just like the UK will do. It's not a great challenge to people who run business's. The sheer amount of EU regulations over the last 25 years have caused far more sleepless nights.

Now try and figure out the difference between the two situations.

[Odile]

We will of course still have to abide by all EU rules if we want to export to EU- for sure.

UK residents will on the other hand have to accept **** and unsafe products, from meat, to fruit and veg, electrical goods, toys for the children - which will be unsafe, as no longer protected from above.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	But how exactly is such a referendum supposed to work? The 37 other regional and national parliaments plus the EU parliament has to approve it as well. So what do you do if one of them rejects it after you vote to accept it? Or if they reject it before you hold a vote?

I don’t believe the withdrawal of an Article 50 notice needs anyone’s approval. At least there is nothing in the treaty that requires that.

The collective sigh around Europe would deafen any objections.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	Now try and figure out the difference between the two situations.

Odile was talking about customs issues, Switzerland is not in a customs union with the EU, you may have noticed 'Zoll' & 'Douane' signs at the border..

This is the second time that you have made a comment without realising what I was replying to. Now I understand how accountants miss fraud as the don't see the full picture just the last line they looked at, you even believe an opinion is a 'certified fact'.

	Quote:	bowlie
	I don’t believe the withdrawal of an Article 50 notice needs anyone’s approval. At least there is nothing in the treaty that requires that. The collective sigh around Europe would deafen any objections.

This very likely would happen, which is why those behind the "People's Vote" are pushing it so much. All this "vote on the final deal" is a load of bluff to try and torpedo Brexit. They know the time is up to go back to the EU to negotiate further and just hoping the UK would withdraw Art. 50.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	This very likely would happen, which is why those behind the "People's Vote" are pushing it so much. All this "vote on the final deal" is a load of bluff to try and torpedo Brexit. They know the time is up to go back to the EU to negotiate further and just hoping the UK would withdraw Art. 50.

Well, if that is what the people want. So be it.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	But how exactly is such a referendum supposed to work? The 37 other regional and national parliaments plus the EU parliament has to approve it as well. So what do you do if one of them rejects it after you vote to accept it? Or if they reject it before you hold a vote?

The EU, at least the Commission, would prefer for the UK to stay in. Where both parties have the same will there's usually a way.

[Odile]

	Quote:	bowlie
	Well, if that is what the people want. So be it.

Democracy indeed

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	CH manages OK to pay customs fees in both directions just like the UK will do. It's not a great challenge to people who run business's. The sheer amount of EU regulations over the last 25 years have caused far more sleepless nights.

So you intend to replace one kind of bureacracy by another, just much more difficult one. I can already hear you complain.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	CH manages OK to pay customs fees in both directions just like the UK will do. It's not a great challenge to people who run business's. The sheer amount of EU regulations over the last 25 years have caused far more sleepless nights.

"The sheer amount of EU regulations over the last 25 years" Is this really true? Any statistics?
And secondly if this is so burdensome then how come none of the 27 countries deployed their power of veto?

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	bowlie
	I don’t believe the withdrawal of an Article 50 notice needs anyone’s approval. At least there is nothing in the treaty that requires that.

And that is exactly the problem there is no provision in the treaty to allow for its withdrawal nor for the council of ministers to accept such a withdrawal. This will come down to a decision of the ECJ and I have yet to read a ruling from them that came down on the side of the absence of a provision being a provision. The EU is very much a rule base organization at the end of the day.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	The EU, at least the Commission, would prefer for the UK to stay in. Where both parties have the same will there's usually a way.

The thing is that the Commission has no authority in the matter and this not an agreement between member states where things can be agreed at the eleventh hour. This is an agreement with a third country and the Council is only one of three levels that need to approve the deal.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	The thing is that the Commission has no authority in the matter and this not an agreement between member states where things can be agreed at the eleventh hour. This is an agreement with a third country and the Council is only one of three levels that need to approve the deal.

Receiving and accepting the invocation of article 50, as well as accepting withdrawal thereof should it come to that, is the Commission's authority I think. To boot, every member state has a clear interest in that happening, should that be the UK's request, given that the UK is a net contributor. And where's a will there's usually a way.

[lewton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	And that is exactly the problem there is no provision in the treaty to allow for its withdrawal nor for the council of ministers to accept such a withdrawal. This will come down to a decision of the ECJ and I have yet to read a ruling from them that came down on the side of the absence of a provision being a provision. The EU is very much a rule base organization at the end of the day.

Greece will not accept the withdrawal of Article 50 unless the UK returns the Parthenon marbles (or this is what I wish the Greek government does).
Other countries might come up with similar demands.

	Quote:	bowlie
	Well, if that is what the people want. So be it.

They don't. There was a vote on it, remember?

	Quote:	lewton
	Greece will not accept the withdrawal of Article 50 unless the UK returns the Parthenon marbles (or this is what I wish the Greek government does). Other countries might come up with similar demands.

The Greeks will do exactly what they are told to do by the EU. It's all the Greeks ever do