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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #13221  
Old 03.09.2018, 11:33
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Corrected, thank you, how kind to help me with my English. So, 10 years now- you must be totally fluent in German now, spoken and written, I hope.

Do you ever intend to go back? How will Brexit, bad deal, no deal - affect YOU personally, I wonder?
I wasn't correcting your English. HTH.

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Is that a poll from the Sun?!! Hahahahahaha.. how wonderful.

Cath's polls are better, more meat on the bones
Let's attack the poll's source! We've still learned nothing about polling!

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  #13222  
Old 03.09.2018, 11:36
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Having said that, a second referendum which again votes for Brexit will safeguard the government in the years to come. If it turns out badly, there is always the comeback that "well, you had two chances, and the second time you had all of the information".
It won't. The last election had in excess of 80% of the electorate backing parties that will respect the referendum result and aren't calling for a second vote. In the end, Brexit didn't turn out to be the major factor in the results of last years election.
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  #13223  
Old 03.09.2018, 11:40
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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It won't. The last election had in excess of 80% of the electorate backing parties that will respect the referendum result and aren't calling for a second vote. In the end, Brexit didn't turn out to be the major factor in the results of last years election.
Err... don't those two back-to-back sentences contradict each other?

Election: 80% (?) of electorate backing parties respecting the referendum.
Election: Brexit not a major factor in results of election.

Are you talking about different elections?

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  #13224  
Old 03.09.2018, 13:06
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Hoodwink the electorate? What like the emergency budget? Immediate recession? 3 million unemployed?

If there was a second referendum it would play out EXACTLY the same.
Tired of posting the same thing but anyway "Brexit has not happened yet" so we do not yet know the effect!
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  #13225  
Old 03.09.2018, 13:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Let's attack the poll's source! We've still learned nothing about polling!

'Cos they're the same things, US presidential elections and British referenda. As someone recently said,

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Imagine comparing general elections to a referendum.
That US poll may well have been on the money; Clinton won 3 million + more of the popular votes than Trump. Where that poll went wrong was factoring in the Electoral College.

What do we need to factor into Brexit polling, then? The BLQ (Brexiteer Lie Quotient)?
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  #13226  
Old 03.09.2018, 13:41
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Let me spell it out for you:

85% chance to win (not sure how that number was arrived at to begin with) means 15% chance (or risk) to lose.This time the latter happened, it's time for you to finally get over it.
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I wasn't correcting your English. HTH.

Let's attack the poll's source! We've still learned nothing about polling!

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  #13227  
Old 03.09.2018, 14:11
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Last poll I saw on Brexit indicated the UK would vote the same way:


I presume this is the poll that also showed 44% of Brits say Brexit is “an historic mistake” (44% agree or strongly agree, 30% disagree or strongly disagree).

Of course, the Sun didn't bother to highlight that bit. Also noteworthy (and unlike the Skydata poll also from a couple of weeks ago), the poll was careful to not ask about opinion on a 3 option, two preference vote.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...t-it-1-5661056
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  #13228  
Old 03.09.2018, 14:23
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Tired of posting the same thing but anyway "Brexit has not happened yet" so we do not yet know the effect!
Those things were promised directly on the outcome of the referendum result, not after the UK leaves the EU. Besides, if as you say Brexit hasn't happened yet, there is no basis for wanting it overturned as we still don't know what will happen.

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That US poll may well have been on the money; Clinton won 3 million + more of the popular votes than Trump. Where that poll went wrong was factoring in the Electoral College.

What do we need to factor into Brexit polling, then? The BLQ (Brexiteer Lie Quotient)?
Just highlighting that polls are often wrong. Every poll before the presidential election had Clinton winning and looked what happened. Every poll had the UK remaining in the EU. You cannot use polls as a basis for over turning a democratic vote.

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I presume this is the poll that also showed 44% of Brits say Brexit is “an historic mistake” (44% agree or strongly agree, 30% disagree or strongly disagree).

Of course, the Sun didn't bother to highlight that bit. Also noteworthy (and unlike the Skydata poll also from a couple of weeks ago), the poll was careful to not ask about opinion on a 3 option, two preference vote.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...t-it-1-5661056
Quoting The New European, and to think you were all laughing at me for using a poll from The Sun
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  #13229  
Old 03.09.2018, 14:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Let me spell it out for you:

85% chance to win (not sure how that number was arrived at to begin with) means 15% chance (or risk) to lose.This time the latter happened, it's time for you to finally get over it.

Let's take a more practical example - excluding the draw, 85/15 was roughly the odds of Man United beating Brighton a fortnight ago...guess what happened, Brighton won. So all bookies' odds are now invalid by your logic.

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Those things were promised directly on the outcome of the referendum result, not after the UK leaves the EU. Besides, if as you say Brexit hasn't happened yet, there is no basis for wanting it overturned as we still don't know what will happen.

I see this all the time? Who (official) promised this? Was it the same people who promised £350m extra a week for the NHS?

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You cannot use polls as a basis for over turning a democratic vote.
But nobody is looking to do that, they are looking to use a referendum to overturn a now-proven-to-be undemocratic vote.
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  #13230  
Old 03.09.2018, 14:43
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Obv, not by your logic UM

(unable to edit properly at work)
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  #13231  
Old 03.09.2018, 14:48
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Obv, not by your logic UM

(unable to edit properly at work)
Actually, I think UM was making the same point as you. 85% likely to win is 15% chance of losing, which is non-zero and therefore possible, if unlikely -- and sometimes, low-probability events do come about.

ETA:
D'oh, and now I just re-re-read your post, StirB, and there's no issue. (You needed emphasis on the "your"). We're all agreeing furiously.*




*Well, not Loz, obvs.
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  #13232  
Old 03.09.2018, 14:53
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I see this all the time? Who (official) promised this? Was it the same people who promised £350m extra a week for the NHS?
George Osborne, then Chancellor of the Exchequer, part of the official Remain campaign.

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But nobody is looking to do that, they are looking to use a referendum to overturn a now-proven-to-be undemocratic vote.
Where has this been "proven"?
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  #13233  
Old 03.09.2018, 14:58
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Where has this been "proven"?
Doesn't need to be proven really though, does it? The day after the vote, every man and his dog was back peddling on their outlandish claims.

And yes, that includes both sides, although, most critically, the Leave side of things probably faced the biggest back peddling exercise seeing as their load-of-cobblers were the most vote-winning.
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  #13234  
Old 03.09.2018, 15:02
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Doesn't need to be proven really though, does it?
Well it does actually, if you want to overturn a democratic vote.
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  #13235  
Old 03.09.2018, 15:08
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Well it does actually, if you want to overturn a democratic vote.
So a key member of Leave admitting on TV that a pivotal campaign detail promising 350 mil a week for a beleaguered NHS was, in fact, made up bobbins is a solid base on which to proceed with such a seismic change?

Not to mention the illegal activity surrounding the campaign spending. So if it's proof you're after; breaking electoral law probably fits the bill, right?
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Old 03.09.2018, 15:15
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Where has this been "proven"?
Set aside the £350m lies, the campaign was proven to have significantly overspent, that should invalidate the results alone.
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  #13237  
Old 03.09.2018, 15:17
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Obv, not by your logic UM

(unable to edit properly at work)
In those instances the good old (and sloooow) IE works for me (usually). Not sure if IE's still available on a clean Win10 install.
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Old 03.09.2018, 15:19
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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In those instances the good old (and sloooow) IE works for me (usually). Not sure if IE's still available on a clean Win10 install.
We have a stripped down version of IE at work, sometimes it allows edits, sometimes it doesn't...depends how hard I kick the case.
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Old 03.09.2018, 15:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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We have a stripped down version of IE at work, sometimes it allows edits, sometimes it doesn't...depends how hard I kick the case.
Have the same issue here. Happily got a rogue IT person to grant me Chrome!
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  #13240  
Old 03.09.2018, 17:40
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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George Osborne, then Chancellor of the Exchequer, part of the official Remain campaign.



Where has this been "proven"?

The Electoral Commission has certainly proven fraud,.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...mark-gettleson

As for outside interference- that is perhaps not proven yet- but quite clear too.

What is proven, is that the vast majority of people, including the Government, had no idea of what the consequences and implications were. Once they are clear, or as clear as possible - democracy absolutely requires that people are given a vote on the final deal, or no deal.

That is why when you decide to buy a house, you are able to pull out if and when you have done a survey and realise there are massive issues with it you were not aware of when you initially visited it.
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