The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I think it's finally dawning on the EU that even they will struggle to keep Ireland going in the event of a no deal Brexit. Brexit: EU 'ready to improve' Irish border proposal

You can safely bet on the same outcome as three weeks ago: No change, more gridlock.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	You can safely bet on the same outcome as three weeks ago: No change, more gridlock.

I did think that, but I'm starting to change my mind now and I reckon they're going to fudge it at the last minute. They'll come up with an agreement where the language is so vague that both sides can claim a victory of sorts whilst they kick the can further down the road.

[Urs Max]

Doesn't one part of the Checker's plan say tthat the UK would collect taxes/duties on the EU's behalf?

So much for building trust:

	Quote:
	Meanwhile, Brussels is preparing to step up its legal action against the UK in a case of alleged customs fraud. The European commission has accused HM Revenue and Customs of negligence in controls that enabled Chinese fraudsters to evade duties, causing a €2.7bn (£2.4bn) loss to the EU budget. The commission will announce the next step in the process on Wednesday, the final stage before it can take the government to the European court of justice. Brussels launched the action in March, and British officials see the timing of the latest move – on the eve of the Salzburg summit – as provocative. “I can only speculate on the reasons, but it seems pretty obvious what is going on,” a No 10 insider said. A government spokesman said: “The UK does not accept liability for the alleged losses or recognise the estimate of alleged duty evaded. We take customs fraud very seriously and we continue to evolve our response as new threats emerge.” The alleged fraud has raised tensions between the EU and UK, contributing to mistrust about British officials’ ability to collect duties on behalf of the bloc, as proposed by the government in its unprecedented customs partnership.

(from the Guardian article linked above)

Some Kind of fudging would require common ground and trust in the will to compromise. As for reason to trust see above.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I did think that, but I'm starting to change my mind now and I reckon they're going to fudge it at the last minute. They'll come up with an agreement where the language is so vague that both sides can claim a victory of sorts whilst they kick the can further down the road.

[John William]

Well with only a little over 6 months to go before the Brexiteers return to The Olden Days, no doubt they must
be getting terribly 'misty eyed' about it.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I did think that, but I'm starting to change my mind now and I reckon they're going to fudge it at the last minute. They'll come up with an agreement where the language is so vague that both sides can claim a victory of sorts whilst they kick the can further down the road.

Ah yes, you see, I think that is what the UK expects too. But what they fail to appreciate is that when the fudge is passed around in the EU it only happens between member states and in cases where all that is required is agreement between the Council of Ministers. But this is different, it is an agreement with a third country and that requires agreement of the 37 national and regional parliaments plus the EU parliament, there just will not be enough fudge to go around. So if there is going to be a fudge it will require the UK to eat 80-90% of the fudge and that will be hard for them to stomach so to speak.

[lewton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	This isn't about who has most to lose, it's about the sheer logistical challenge of keeping Ireland going in the event of a no-deal Brexit.

Challenge Accepted bitches.

Didn't Ireland recently receive an unbudgeted additional 13 billion euros?
They would come in handy if needed.

[lewton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Doesn't one part of the Checker's plan say tthat the UK would collect taxes/duties on the EU's behalf? So much for building trustfrom the Guardian article linked above) Some Kind of fudging would require common ground and trust in the will to compromise. As for reason to trust see above.

For the Brexiteers it is "red tape" to properly control companies.
They are fine with companies evading billions of tax, but if an unemployed mother receives a penny over the legal allowance it's a scandal.

	Quote:	Blueangel
	https://news.sky.com/story/bmw-to-sh...urces-11501360

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Oh come on, stop that fearmongering already.

"Planned annual maintenance shutdown that takes place every year brought forward".

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	"Planned annual maintenance shutdown that takes place every year brought forward".

"[..] to minimise the risk of any possible short-term parts-supply disruption in the event of a no-deal Brexit."
So much for just-in-time.

[McTAVGE]

While I watched my U.K. pension estimate go down to nought in 2008 and go up to 0+ since, it will go down to zero again with a no-deal Brexit. Meanwhile the posh tossers who led that mess are rubbing their hands as they know there'll be some profits to be made for them, regardless.

[Odile]

yep- thank goodness you will be entitled to a Swiss one too - unlike some

down 50% is tough - down 60, 70, 80% will be **** no way could we have planned for this ****

[John William]

	Quote:	McTAVGE
	While I watched my U.K. pension estimate go down to nought in 2008 and go up to 0+ since, it will go down to zero again with a no-deal Brexit. Meanwhile the posh tossers who led that mess are rubbing their hands as they know there'll be some profits to be made for them, regardless.

Surely you don't mean JRM ?

[lewton]

After the fiasco in Salzburg, anybody thinks May will be around long enough to deliver Brexit.

[StirB]

	Quote:	lewton
	After the fiasco in Salzburg, anybody thinks May will be around long enough to deliver Brexit.

50/50 - as we've seen in the last few weeks, she's prepared to do anything to keep power, including selling Britain down the river. With the dual piranha combo of Mogg and BoJo snapping at her though, your guess is as good as mine. All 3 options are awful though, let's be honest. Perhaps Brexit could have been a qualified success with competent leadership, but it's already a national embarassment and disaster and only going to get worse.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	lewton
	After the fiasco in Salzburg, anybody thinks May will be around long enough to deliver Brexit.

Who is so stupid to willingly step up to the (political) guillotine?

I guess she'll be allowed to deliver Brexit, stay for a few months longer, and once the chaos that's expected has become reality (if it will) the knight in white armor will present her/himself.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Who is so stupid to willingly step up to the (political) guillotine? I guess she'll be allowed to deliver Brexit, stay for a few months longer, and once the chaos that's expected has become reality (if it will) the knight in white armor will present her/himself.

Yup, she'll be the sacrificial lamb who has to see it through to the end. Nobody in their right mind wants to be the one with their hand on the tiller on 29th March.

Quick leadership challenge which shouldn't see too much opposition after the shitshow exit then the new leader takes over the reins to pick up the pieces.

She should call a general election before she's kicked out for the laffs...

[Odile]

So Macron tells it like it is : 'those who proposed easy solutions are just liars' - and the liars are up in arms - and for those who understand French, we have gone beyond being the laughing stock- now they actually feel sorry for us and even concerned - that we are actually scuppering our own country, and willingly:

https://www.facebook.com/Cdanslairf5...4089270675813/

Think yourself lucky, very lucky- that you have escaped. For those like us on UK pensions, the future is very uncertain. Losing 50% of income in a few years is tough- but when the Pound tanks, and it will, where will we get to, minus 60, 70, 80 % .... more? I know FMF thinks it is hilarious +++ - but ...

	Quote:	Odile
	So Macron tells it like it is : 'those who proposed easy solutions are just liars' - and the liars are up in arms - and for those who understand French, we have gone beyond being the laughing stock- now they actually feel sorry for us and even concerned - that we are actually scuppering our own country, and willingly: https://www.facebook.com/Cdanslairf5...4089270675813/ Think yourself lucky, very lucky- that you have escaped. For those like us on UK pensions, the future is very uncertain. Losing 50% of income in a few years is tough- but when the Pound tanks, and it will, where will we get to, minus 60, 70, 80 % .... more? I know FMF thinks it is hilarious +++ - but ...

Using an attack on the UK by the French President to try and stop Brexit. Good luck with that

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Using an attack on the UK by the French President to try and stop Brexit. Good luck with that

Wasn't he just pointing out the blindingly obvious, though?

Teresa May's nose it out of joint because he's pointing at the fact there was a lorry load of lies and people are beginning to see it.

Him using Brexit's main weakness against them is not really an attack it's more of a judo move.

[Reb77Br]

What a surprise. Just as well they didn't put this on the side of the bus.

Let American firms run hospitals, urges free trade group

"The report, from the Initiative for Free Trade, has been edited by Daniel Hannan, a Tory MEP"