The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Dougal's Breakfast]

	Quote:	RufusB
	I can't decide if it's teachers in general you have a problem with, or just a specific poster... Although to be fair, I make up stuff all the time... keeps the kids on their toes...

I remember a conversation I once had with some former pupils, about six months after they'd moved up from my class.

"So, how do you like lessons with Mr Jones?"

"Oh, he's great. He tells us all about things that are actually true!"

[Odile]

LOL, I think my French was quite 'true' - a lot 'truer' than that of most of my English colleagues for sure.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Odile
	ah lol- where did I say in my post about sending doctors back?

It was the 3rd paragraph I quoted, you need to reread what you post sometimes

So you don't have to go back I re-quoted

	Quote:	Odile
	Do you really think privatisation, and sending foreign doctors back at a time of massive shortages- will make their salaries go down ... or up? Basic economics escape you perhaps.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Odile
	LOL, I think my French was quite 'true' - a lot 'truer' than that of most of my English colleagues for sure.

Swiss French no doubt, that always causes amusement to real French people. No doubt you could bluff it to the kids, had you been in London that would have not worked as there were plenty of French French mother young kids.

[Sky]

The news is so depressing today

What will happen to the EUs already in the UK?
What will happen to the EUs arriving after Brexit but before the end of the transition period?

Will they need a tier 2 visa to stay?

What will happen for EUs married to a Brit or who intend to marry a Brit, or who form/will form a civil partnership? Do they have to leave if they're not earning 30K?


What will happen to the EUs who get a magical tier 2 visa to stay but then retire/lose their job/get sick/want to stop working? (without necessarily banking on any government benefits)

When they can no longer work after have been of service for years, will they be kicked out?

What if an older EU wants to go and still has 25 years or 15 years of work in them and there's a quota imposed for only the young?

How long will it take to get travel visas, and for how long a period of time?
Will the prices of flights go up?


And what will happen to all the Brits in the EU if the EU creates similar uncertainty?

I just feel horribly sad

[Odile]

Oh my, perhaps I should not have erased my last comment- but ...

I know many Yorkshire and Liverpool, etc, teachers and other professionals who are totally capable of switching their local accent, syntax and vocab at will - just as I am capable of switching from Neuchâtelois to Vaudois or even Genaive or Valaisan- and standard French (whatever that is- as there are VERY strong accents and variations in France too). But as you have never met me, and are increasingly less and less likely too- it is for me to know, and for you to ponder - as my NI dentist used to say.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	Odile
	Oh my, perhaps I should not have erased my last comment- but ... I know many Yorkshire and Liverpool, etc, teachers and other professionals who are totally capable of switching their local accent, syntax and vocab at will - just as I am capable of switching from Neuchâtelois to Vaudois or even Genaive or Valaisan- and standard French (whatever that is- as there are VERY strong accents and variations in France too). But as you have never met me, and are increasingly less and less likely too- it is for me to know, and for you to ponder - as my NI dentist used to say.

I never had the pleasure of reading your last comment

I suspect they can't speak 'Oxford or old BBC English' & probably know they cant, but they do their best. As English is not your mother tong & you spent many years in a place where having a local accident is normal, they were your friends & you would hardly pull them up as a foreigner.

The majority of Swiss Germans cant speak High German without a Swiss accent.

[lewton]

So Brexit is going marvelously, isn't it?

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I never had the pleasure of reading your last comment I suspect they can't speak 'Oxford or old BBC English' & probably know they cant can't, but they do their best. As English is not your mother tong tongue & you spent many years in a place where having a local accident accent is normal, they were your friends & you would hardly pull them up as a foreigner. The majority of Swiss Germans cant can't speak High German without a Swiss accent.

Speaking of 'Oxford or old BBC English'

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	Speaking of 'Oxford or old BBC English'

The difference being I was talking about the spoken word & your getting off on the written word.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	baboon
	As ever, who will that hit most? UK - exports to the EU account for ~13% of the total UK economy EU - exports to the UK account for ~3% of the total EU economy You keep going on about maths. So you work out the risks impact.

Ireland will almost certainly be hit the most, but as you say the 3% is an irrelevance to the EU. Ireland has about 1% of the EU population living there so even less irrelevant in the grand scheme of things. If only they could take control

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The majority of Swiss Germans cant speak High German without a Swiss accent.

I can't either.

A former Swiss German girlfriend pointed that out.

Tom

[st2lemans]

	Quote:	Odile
	they really should go back to doing 140 hours a week- as my OH did in 1969 (145 one week in 4.

How does one work 21 hours/day for a week?

No toilet, food, or sleep?

Seems a bit exaggerated.

Tom

[baboon]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	The difference being I was talking about the spoken word & your you're getting off on the written word.

As you were criticising use of English I find the comparison quite appropriate.

Oh and FTFY.

[Dougal's Breakfast]

	Quote:	st2lemans
	How does one work 21 hours/day for a week? No toilet, food, or sleep? Seems a bit exaggerated. Tom

Not unusual for doctors in the wonderful NHS, unfortunately.

Best system in the world, you know!

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Average earnings in the UK is £21700. GP's average £90,100 which is top 3% of earnings, I rest my case. 95% of the population earn less than £70k

And junior doctors?
Do you believe they get a fair wage and working conditions? Or are you just one of the many people who live with the preconception that a junior doctor is someone whose fresh out of med school, instead of a fully qualified doctor doing post-grad training for 15yrs to be a consultant or specialist alongside working full time?

	Quote:	st2lemans
	How does one work 21 hours/day for a week? No toilet, food, or sleep? Seems a bit exaggerated. Tom

It may be a slight exaggeration, but not too far from the truth.

In the 80s and 90s, many junior doctors were on the hospital grounds for the majority of the week, whether they were classed as working or not. It's not as bad now, but I remember when it was like that in the early 1990's. Junior doctors slept in dorms at the hospital and could be brought back onto the ward at any time. Very often, the break between shifts wasn't long enough to warrant going home, particularly when a rostered 10hr shift had been extended by 4+hrs overtime owing to an emergency, and the doctor was due back on shift in 5hrs time, so they would sleep on site.

One of the cases that changed things (and which has always stuck in my mind) was that of a junior doctor, Alan Massey, who died of SADS (sudden adult death syndrome) whilst working at a Warrington hospital. The coroner at his inquest highlighted his working hours over the previous few months as the major contributing factor.

	Quote:
	Alan Massie, 27, a senior house officer at Warrington District General Hospital in Cheshire, died on 31 January. According to reports he had worked seven of the previous eight days and three nights, including unbroken spells of 27 hours and 24 hours. The cause of death has not been established but his parents, George and Margaret Massie, blame the long hours and pressure of the six months he had spent in one of the most demanding fields, obstetrics and gynaecology. Dr Massie died on the final day of his training in the speciality.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...s-1369224.html


Our nephew works for a bank 'in the city' and was a work hard, play hard kind of guy until he met his partner a few years ago. She's a junior doctor at a London hospital, and he often says he'll never moan about being at work all night again after seeing the hours and shift patterns that are expected of her.

	Quote:	baboon
	Another misnomer actually. Firstly, the UK exports far more to Ireland than it imports (trade balance is GB£ 12 billion in the UKs favour. Second, the bulk of Ireland's exports to the UK are food (roughly half), something the UK simply can't live without. Even allowing for the high relevance of UK exports to the Irish economy, the relative invulnerability of the food portion should heavily mitigate that. Northern Ireland could be the most heavily shafted by a no deal Brexit. But that's other people so I guess you don't care about them.

You’re missing the point again. The UK will be an independent country, so it will be at the UK’s discretion whether they choose to apply tariffs or not. The UK can just keep the borders open for imports in the short term, something that they’ve said they’d do in the event of no deal. Ireland on the other hand will still be a member of the EU and will have to abide by EU rules, so they can’t do the same. Food shortages just won’t happen.

	Quote:	Jim2007
	As usual you know SFA about the topic. Yes it will be difficult, but the UK accounts for 16% of our trade, the same as Belgium. The new Ro-Ro began in April of this year and has a capacity of 120k containers, which will take the bulk of the 190k containers currently going via the UK. The ports in the south of Ireland and France have been or are being upgraded and the national grid is being hooked up the French grid. And in the coming budget up to €30.6 billion could be available to route Irish traffic through Zeebrugge, Antwerp and Rotterdam. The Irish government have already signed new contracts with the USA to supply beef and the new trade deal with Japan opens up the market too for beef sales. So while in the short term the beef market will take a hit,in the long term it will reduce dependency on the UK. On top of that with the economy growing at about 7%, it is not the worst time to take a hit and could act as a much need break to prevent the economy over heating. But more important from an Irish point of view it will make us less dependent on the UK and brings the chance of a United Ireland that bit closer.

And you’re missing the point on simple geography. Yes you can have Ro-Ro ports and a underwater cable with France that will never eventually get built. Currently Ireland has a land bridge with continental Europe, very important for the exports of foodstuffs. Travel time via the UK is four times faster than by ship, so whilst only 16% of trade is with the UK, much more than that is shipped via the UK. In short, Ireland will be shafted by a no deal Brexit, and the EU would struggle to mitigate the effects of it.

[Dougal's Breakfast]

What I read in my caffeine-deficient, underslept, reading glasses on a different floor state:

	Quote:	Loz1983
	time travel via the UK is four times faster than by ship

Thanks for raising my hopes then dashing them. I've already had enough of that with Brexit!

[Odile]

	Quote:	st2lemans
	How does one work 21 hours/day for a week? No toilet, food, or sleep? Seems a bit exaggerated. Tom

Not allowed now- was the norm in the late 60s and 80s - NO exaggeration at all- I was there, I witnessed it, I lived it, via my partner- qualified UCH 1970- House jobs at West Middlesex and Queen Mary's, Roehampton.

I trula don't care if you don't believe me- as you have NO idea.

In the meantime:

Theresa May has announced today at Tory Conference that after Brexit we will end 'low-skill' migrants to the UK which she defined as earning less than £50k per year. Ladies and Gentlemen, I give you a summary of the NHS pay scales:

NHS Salaries (AfC 2018)

Band 2 HCA: £17,460
Band 3 Therapy Assistant: £17,787
Band 4 Pharmacy Technician: £20,150

Band 5 Staff Nurse: £23,023
Band 6 Pharmacist: £28,050
Band 7 Occupational Therapist: £33,222
F2 Doctor: £31,422
Registrar : £47,132

For those of you who are not familiar with Dr Grades a Registrar is a Dr with 5 years medical school and 5-10 years experience. Who will not be permitted to enter the UK.

This is blind prejudice.
This is uninformed.
This is racism.
This kills the NHS.

[Sandgrounder]

	Quote:	Odile
	In the meantime: Theresa May has announced today at Tory Conference that after Brexit we will end 'low-skill' migrants to the UK which she defined as earning less than £50k per year.

I think it's just all conference blow to appease the Brexiters, to be honest. Obviously there will be serious problems within the NHS if they curb a major recruitment route, and they know it.

As for the low skilled migrant workers, that won't follow through either. There'll be more pontificating, promising and posturing but they'll create loopholes which will mirror what they have now with all the same conditions in place.

The Maybot has been preprogrammed with all the Brexit platitudes for the conference and the media, but the real work to appease the EU will be done behind closed doors because that's too embarrassing for telly.