The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Medea Fleecestealer]

Perhaps they should.

[Belgianmum]

	Quote:	Deep Purple
	It's difficult to tell how much is scaremongering, rumour or fact. I suspect that there is very little fact there as nobody is currently saying definitively what will happen if Britain leaves

I agree but there are plenty of Brits I know in Brussels who are worried enough about it to be applying for Belgian nationality.

[NomadAmericano]

	Quote:	amogles
	In the immediate post war period the predecessor organisations of the EU definitely did contribute to peace. Getting deGaulle and Adenauer to be chums and work together rather than allowing their countries to slip back into their old patterns was a great achievement. People like Robert Schuhmann and Otto von Habsburg also made huge contributions to securing peace between nations. Today we may take this for granted but the world was a fundamentally different place then. But what is a Juncker compared to an Otto von Habsburg? What is a Merkel compared to an Adenauer? The sons have taken the acheivements of their fathers for granted and are letting the power get to their heads rather than using it wisely. This is undermining the very concepts the European Ideal was about. There is a time and a place for everything and the EU had its place and time but for the future we need to be asking some fundamental questions. I do believe in European countries working together on an institutionalized level for the common good. But I don't think the EU in its present state is the vehicle for that any more.

Doesn't NATO get the credit for post-war peace?

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	yacek
	The UK parliament is sovereign so even if the people chose to exit the EU, the parliament could overthrow it? And would it?

I doubt it, not if they wanted to be elected next time around. Even if Parliament is sovereign, you don't make a fuss about holding a referendum to decide a major issue and then ignore it. Not if you want to have any political future.

[Troublawesome]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	I doubt it, not if they wanted to be elected next time around. Even if Parliament is sovereign, you don't make a fuss about holding a referendum to decide a major issue and then ignore it. Not if you want to have any political future.

Why not, Tsipras did it and won the elections with a higher percentage 2 months later

[Deep Purple]

	Quote:	yacek
	The UK parliament is sovereign so even if the people chose to exit the EU, the parliament could overthrow it? And would it?

A possibility that was mentioned on the radio the other day:

Britain votes to leave the EU. EU backs down and offers more concessions. British government ignores the referendum result on the grounds that the circumstances are different to those when the referendum was set up

[Sbrinz]

The first round of information and discussions is on Thursday 18th February.

There are a few Conservative politicians who would probably make a fortune on new contracts outside the EU, but most of the government and the opposition are very much for remaining within the EU.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32810887

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	Troublawesome
	Why not, Tsipras did it and won the elections with a higher percentage 2 months later

Different situation and different country. I doubt many MP's (Tory ones at least) would want to risk their political future by ignoring a referendum result. Though as Deep Purple says, it may well turn out to be a ploy to simply ring more concessions out of the EU.

Frankly, I don't see what he's asking for as being radical enough to be considered a major shake-up of the EU idea as a whole and that's what's really needed.

[MsWorWoo]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	I doubt it, not if they wanted to be elected next time around. Even if Parliament is sovereign, you don't make a fuss about holding a referendum to decide a major issue and then ignore it. Not if you want to have any political future.

They don't listen to the people on any other issue (drs, council cuts etc) why should this be any different. They know they won't get re-elected and are operating a salted earth policy.

[Medea Fleecestealer]

	Quote:	MsWorWoo
	They don't listen to the people on any other issue (drs, council cuts etc) why should this be any different. They know they won't get re-elected and are operating a salted earth policy.

Direct appeal to the people in the form of a referendum rather than the day-to-day act of governing the country - which the voters elected them to do.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	MsWorWoo
	They don't listen to the people on any other issue (drs, council cuts etc) why should this be any different.

And it's exactly this perception that makes me think there will be a ridiculously low voter turn out. The danger is that only the zenophobes will get off their fat arses and vote.

[Swissish]

Attached is a publication from Bloomberg discussing some of the issues, risks and potential outcomes.

Brexit Special

• Modeling a Surprise Exit
• Migration Front and Center
• Brexit’s Cost to Trade
• Capital Flight Risk
• Brex and the City

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	MsWorWoo
	They don't listen to the people on any other issue (drs, council cuts etc) why should this be any different. They know they won't get re-elected and are operating a salted earth policy.

They listen to the people who pay..........
Councils waste money & Dr's have got very lazy compared to 50 years ago when house calls were nothing out of the ordinary. Continually paying more for less is not the way forward.

[Phil_MCR]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/eu-ref...or-not-2015-11

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Medea Fleecestealer
	Frankly, I don't see what he's asking for as being radical enough to be considered a major shake-up of the EU idea as a whole and that's what's really needed.

Asking no social benefits for European workers equals to asking for second-class citizens in my opinion. If they contribute and pay their unemployment contributions etc is unfair to deny people access to social services they contributed to.
What if British citizens would be denied unemployment or child allowance in Switzerland, based on the fact that a sizeable % of Britain's population lives on benefits thus the probability they do so in other countries is quite high. Based on numbers only, it is so. But we all know that in reality people don't emigrate to live on benefits.
In my opinion, Britain wants all the advantages - free access to markets etc but absolutely no "disadvantage". Why the rest of the EU countries should accept this?
P.S. Just read an article about Donald Tusk making a tour to convince some countries to accept Britain's unacceptable conditions. If they will accept them eventually, they will not do that because it is fair, they will do it out of fear of Russia and the wrong believe they have to accept everything to keep Russia away. I bet people like Putin are laughing their a**es off...

[lewton]

A Canadian friend of mine who was on an L permit for almost 3 years and had been contributing to the unemployment benefits scheme one day lost his job and then was forced to leave the country since he had no B/C permit that would have allowed him to stay and receive unemployment benefits.

This is what would happen to the Brits on L permits too.
But people with a B or C permit will be fine.

[meloncollie]

	Quote:	lewton
	This is what would happen to the Brits on L permits too. But people with a B or C permit will be fine.

Just a note: People on a B permit will be fine until the next permit renewal.

If unemployed at that point they might find their permit renewal rejected. Note that I said might, not will. There seems to be a lot of discretion in the decision... I know folks whose renewals sailed through unquestioned, and I know folks who were told to leave.

Welcome to our world of non-EU uncertainty.

[lewton]

	Quote:	meloncollie
	Just a note: People on a B permit will be fine until the next permit renewal. If unemployed at that point they might find their permit renewal rejected. Note that I said might, not will. There seems to be a lot of discretion in the decision... I know folks whose renewals sailed through unquestioned, and I know folks who were told to leave. Welcome to our world of non-EU uncertainty.

Valid point.

Another interesting point is this: because Switzerland gives actual permits to EU citizens (though the approval is automatic) the Brits in Switzerland have a certain security that is the expiration date of their permit.
Because the EU countries don't actually give permits to other EU citizens, they could decide overnight to deport the Brits that leave there. I don't think that it will happen but it could, because they don't have any document that specifically allows them to be in the country.

[amogles]

	Quote:	NomadAmericano
	Doesn't NATO get the credit for post-war peace?

I think most people perceive NATO as being remote controlled by the USA and essentially the long arm of US policy, whereas the EU and its predecessor organizations were about voluntarily finding a way together.

[Sbrinz]

When you look at history and the frequency of wars in Europe, I think the forerunners of the EU must get all the credit for keeping the peace.

Nato was not entirely run by the USA, there was a large European army backed up by air power. The US sector was only in the south of Germany, the rest was European plus I think a bit of Canadian.

At the end of the cold war, when we saw how weak the Warsaw Pact was, we learned that we had wasted a lot of money there.