The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

	Quote:	lewton
	Now please explain why you found it important to mention 2018 immigration numbers, if not to discredit the role that the massive immigration before 2016 played in the referendum result.

...and why do you ignore the fact that the majority STILL came from outside the EU, therefore wholly within the UKs control?

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Inflation, House Prices & earnings have not correlated in the UK over the last 40 years, so using an inflation figure in relation to a house price whilst factual is meaningless.

How does that make them assumptions? And quite obviously I didn't say the purchase price was 250k.

You know, it's Ok to err every once in a while. The big difference is how someone reacts when it's pointed out.

[lewton]

	Quote:
	...and why do you ignore the fact that the majority STILL came from outside the EU, therefore wholly within the UKs control?

I am not, but I am allowed to discuss the fact that the coalition government did not use any of its possibilities to regulate immigration from inside the EU.
Basically they let everybody in and they also allowed everybody to claim benefits, which is great in my opinion, but they misled the public to believe that it was the EU forcing them to do so.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I purchased a flat for £40,000 which today is worth £985,000, Urs Max wrote "Adjusted for inflation since 1981 that's less than £250k." is where the £250k came from. My father was earning substantially less than 20K, I was earning more than £40k Both your assumptions & Ur's assumptions were a long way from the mark.

You had a good flair for business and investments. Not everyone has it. I'm not sure what's the connection with EU, if everything it seems that your property has increased its value due to UK belonging to EU.... Common, I also own a couple of properties back home (inherited), not much, but I can make some money if I sell them exactly because they're worth more since EU.

	Quote:	greenmount
	You had a good flair for business and investments. Not everyone has it. I'm not sure what's the connection with EU, if everything it seems that your property has increased its value due to UK belonging to EU.... Common, I also own a couple of properties back home (inherited), not much, but I can make some money if I sell them exactly because they're worth more since EU.

That's quite common in the UK. Areas which received EU money were modernised and cleaned up, and attracted new buyers. My parents also profited off the back of this, too. The house they bought for just under £8000 is now worth almost 25 times that today.

	Quote:
	First of all, Brassed Off is A Film, not A Documentary, as marvellous as Pete Postlelthwaite was... Secondly...retrain as what? Where? How? How do you clothe and feed your kids with bugger all? If you've been a miner all your working life because that's what the men in your village do, because you've lived in mining subsidised houses (probably the one you were born in), because that is the societal expectation, even need, for you to be a miner (because society, all societies, have always needed, and been prepared to pay, someone to empty the chamber pot) and your education is basic, transport is minimal and the working men's clubs have subsidised alcohol to keep you going until the next weekend... that is your life. To scoff at that shows a very limited understanding of the reality of that life. Their view was largely limited, on purpose, by the very companies and governments who needed them to be limited, right up until the metaphorical rug was pulled.

This wasn't limited to mining communities though. The one rule that is consistent in the world we live in is that you either adapt or die. Be it nature, business or technology. Where I grew up, there were 5 massive factories employing most of the town. Now those jobs are done abroad or by machines. Those who face up to that move on.

The opportunities were always there: education has always been free, Grammar Schools, the Army. The problem is for thick parochial sorts (50% of the human race) they were too content with what they had and many just want to be nannied. If you never had to skill yourself/study for menial labour which pays good money straight out of school, being told you'll have to do it later in life will defeat most people.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It's not vague at all. An example - the UK will be able to strike trade deals where there are no tariffs on garlic to protect French farmers, reducing the price of garlic for UK shoppers.

Love this example.
You afraid of vampires, Loz?

Seriously, jokes aside, try French garlic and then Chinese and you'll notice a difference. As I'm a huge fan of garlic, I prefer to protect the French farmers. Not the best example imho. (We also protect local species and varieties, not only some farmers or farms)

	Quote:	Loz1983
	If you never had to skill yourself/study for menial labour which pays good money straight out of school, being told you'll have to do it later in life will defeat most people.

This we agree on. And yes, hasn't changed in the more parochial areas, sadly. Educating kids out of this mindset can be an uphill battle. The school-resistant kid who is "going to work with /for my dad/uncle/cousin" and who knows that they don't have academic qualifications (and who will not understand that times have changed and that they themselves will need them) is not motivated by much more than a minimum wage weekly pay check.

I still stand by what I said regarding whole entrenched communities though. Just because you can see the writing on the wall, it doesn't mean you can do much about it.

	Quote:	greenmount
	Love this example. You afraid of vampires, Loz? Seriously, jokes aside, try French garlic and then Chinese and you'll notice a difference. As I'm a huge fan of garlic, I prefer to protect the French farmers. Not the best example imho.

I'd also rather buy garlic from France. It was a simplistic example for those who refuse to see the "Sovereignty" argument.

Fishing would be another example, the fact that under EU membership only 40% of fish from UK waters is retained by the UK whilst 60% goes to the EU. Outside the EU the UK can exercise sovereignty over what goes on inside UK territorial waters.

The big one though is the fundamental EU founding ambition to forge an "ever closer union". Further political integration is their stated aim, which can only come at the cost of removing power from national elected parliaments.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	It was a simplistic example for those who refuse to see the "Sovereignty" argument.

Nothing to do with refusal. It's the definition which seems to be lost on some Brexiters.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Fishing would be another example, the fact that under EU membership only 40% of fish from UK waters is retained by the UK whilst 60% goes to the EU. Outside the EU the UK can exercise sovereignty over what goes on inside UK territorial waters.

Ah, that's where Farage had the opportunity to transform from the useless sack of tripe he is to doing something effective from his position as an MEP. Sadly he couldn't arsed to show up and missed his opportunity.

	Quote:
	Nothing to do with refusal. It's the definition which seems to be lost on some Brexiters.

You'll have to explain that to me.

[marton]

	Quote:	lewton
	The reference to Germany was only for comparison reasons. Do you disagree with what I wrote about the UK opening its doors to the new member states before the other senior EU countries did, which led to a disproportionately high inflow of expats from those countries to the UK (and therefore pushed many not very intelligent people to vote for Brexit)? And if you do disagree, please show some statistics from the relevant period, that is before the referendum. Otherwise you are only spreading Fake Stats. PS. Please also see my post connected with the one it was answering to. I am going to repeat the whole relevant sub-thread in order to show how ridiculous your post was. And here comes the troll, accusing me of lying about immigration before the referendum and using 2018 numbers to back his trolling up. Now please explain why you found it important to mention 2018 immigration numbers, if not to discredit the role that the massive immigration before 2016 played in the referendum result.

Because you never mentioned in your post "the role that the massive immigration before 2016 played in the referendum result".
You simply quoted Germany "today"!

Anyway massive EU immigration was all a Brexit fiction!
Non-EU immigration was higher every year than EU immigration, look at the graph below.
Also from the graph the EU immigration from 2007 to 2012 was lower than in previous years so contrary to your claim.

ad hominem comments are no substitute for logical argument; feel free to post any facts supporting your claims.

[lewton]

	Quote:	marton
	Because you never mentioned in your post "the role that the massive immigration before 2016 played in the referendum result". You simply quoted Germany "today"! Anyway massive EU immigration was all a Brexit fiction! Non-EU immigration was higher every year than EU immigration, look at the graph below. Also from the graph the EU immigration from 2007 to 2012 was lower than in previous years so contrary to your claim. ad hominem comments are no substitute for logical argument; feel free to post any facts supporting your claims. Attachment 134780

I wanted you to post the graph because it absolutely supports my claim and it is even better if it has been posted by you.
In your own imaginary world EU immigration did not increase massively between 2012 and 2016.
As per your own graph it did.
At the same time non-EU migration had a slightly downward long term trajectory, and this excluding the 2 really low numbers in 2013 and 2014.

Add the fact that non-EU immigrants had to go through May's hostile environment, which means that they all had really solid reasons to be let in, unlike EU immigrants who could just move there and claim benefits.

I repeat, I have nothing people claiming benefits and I am all for EU solidarity. Nonetheless it played a majour role in the referendum.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	I'd also rather buy garlic from France. It was a simplistic example for those who refuse to see the "Sovereignty" argument. Fishing would be another example, the fact that under EU membership only 40% of fish from UK waters is retained by the UK whilst 60% goes to the EU. Outside the EU the UK can exercise sovereignty over what goes on inside UK territorial waters. The big one though is the fundamental EU founding ambition to forge an "ever closer union". Further political integration is their stated aim, which can only come at the cost of removing power from national elected parliaments.

"Outside the EU the UK can exercise sovereignty over what goes on inside UK territorial waters. " Except this is an oversimplification.
The UK fishing fleet has the rights to fish in the waters of several EU countries and certainly will not want to give up these reciprocal arrangements. For example, losing the right to fish Norwegian cod that is a staple element of British diet!

[marton]

	Quote:	lewton
	I wanted you to post the graph because it absolutely supports my claim and it is even better if it has been posted by you. In your own imaginary world EU immigration did not increase massively between 2012 and 2016. As per your own graph it did. At the same time non-EU migration had a slightly downward long term trajectory, and this excluding the 2 really low numbers in 2013 and 2014. Add the fact that non-EU immigrants had to go through May's hostile environment, which means that they all had really solid reasons to be let in, unlike EU immigrants who could just move there and claim benefits. I repeat, I have nothing people claiming benefits and I am all for EU solidarity. Nonetheless it played a majour role in the referendum.

So now you move your goal posts from 2010 - 2015 to 2012 - 2016

Anyway what is the relevance of the period 2012 - 2016 to your claim "the UK opening its doors to the new member states before the other senior EU countries did, which led to a disproportionately high inflow of expats from those countries to the UK" when the UK opened these doors in 2004?

[k_and_e]

	Quote:	marton
	"Outside the EU the UK can exercise sovereignty over what goes on inside UK territorial waters. " Except this is an oversimplification. The UK fishing fleet has the rights to fish in the waters of several EU countries and certainly will not want to give up these reciprocal arrangements. For example, losing the right to fish Norwegian cod that is a staple element of British diet!

Norway is not in the EU

	Quote:	k_and_e
	Norway is not in the EU

But Norway has an arrangement with the EU to allow EU boats fish in Norwegian waters....

	Quote:
	But Norway has an arrangement with the EU to allow EU boats fish in Norwegian waters....

Norway keeps about 90% of the fish that comes out of its waters.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	That's quite common in the UK. Areas which received EU money were modernised and cleaned up, and attracted new buyers. My parents also profited off the back of this, too. The house they bought for just under £8000 is now worth almost 25 times that today.

I don't think the increase in property price is a good thing, clearly everybody else does. Property prices were always excluded from inflation figures, which is a great mistake over the long term.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I don't think the increase in property price is a good thing, clearly everybody else does. Property prices were always excluded from inflation figures, which is a great mistake over the long term.

You didn't seem to be shedding any tears over your property gaining in value, earlier in the thread.

Ironically I agree with you but it only adds weight to the fact that people thrive on mostly luck when it comes to wealth.

You can have all the knowledge of an area and its potential but if you aren't lucky enough to snap up a property it's worth exactly zero.