The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Clearly that's the EU's position but generally speaking I don't think that holds. Otherwise freee trade agreements, which I know none of that includes FMOP, would be very difficult to implement, or impossible, or whatever the lack of FMOP would mean to them. FMOP isn't necessary for the EEA either, but it is a necessity if the EU is to become some sort of federation or even a state.

A common market is not the same thing as a free trade agreement.

Outside of the EU, the nearest thing to a common market is the situation in the US where the federated States trade freely together with a common currency and free movement of people but have many of their own laws like Sales taxes.

[lewton]

So.... Who said it would be easy to maintain the WTO membership?
https://uk-mobile-reuters-com.cdn.am...rom%20%251%24s

	Quote:	lewton
	So.... Who said it would be easy to maintain the WTO membership? https://uk-mobile-reuters-com.cdn.am...rom%20%251%24s

From that...:

	Quote:
	"As expected, some trading partners have expressed reservations about our proposed treatment of Tariff Rate Quotas," Fox said in a written statement to the British parliament, referring to trading rights granted to major agricultural exporters. Fox did not name the objectors but he will have to switch to "modification" of the British WTO agreement, giving other countries the right to negotiate and demand concessions from London, which could take years.

Sounds very like it's the US that are objecting.

[marton]

	Quote:
	From that...: Sounds very like it's the US that are objecting.

There was a list of some objectors published a while back including US, Australia and New Zealand.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	marton
	A common market is not the same thing as a free trade agreement. Outside of the EU, the nearest thing to a common market is the situation in the US where the federated States trade freely together with a common currency and free movement of people but have many of their own laws like Sales taxes.

Sure, it requires the same legal framework but that doesn't require FMOP.

[lewton]

I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.

	Quote:	lewton
	I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.

Oh the usual. GM foods, chlorine-washed chicken, hormones in meat, getting rid of all that inconvenient EU environmental protection, opening up the NHS to US firms, etc.

[Urs Max]

	Quote:	lewton
	I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.

My bet is on chlorinated chicken, hormone-laden beef and GMOs, among others.

See this tome on trade barriers (500 pages!!) the US published earlier this year.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	lewton
	I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.

My guess is it will not happen for a long time. Apparently fast tracking the UK/EU trade schedules has died at the WTO with over 20 undisclosed countries objecting and the UK will no be required to do a full negotiation to get there... The group, I understand, includes USA, Argentina, NZ, Australia (?) and Russia.

Of course a no deal with the EU would cause the number to go to at least 47 out of 160+....

[marton]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Sure, it requires the same legal framework but that doesn't require FMOP.

A single, or common, market goes a lot further than a trade agreement: as well as tariffs and quotas, it seeks to remove various other barriers to trade.

Source

I agree FMOP is not required but is useful

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Clearly that's the EU's position but generally speaking I don't think that holds. .

I guess it's used as a leverage in negotiations. There are much more important things they want to get out of Brexit. That's just a smoke screen imo. OK, there are a few millions of EU citizens living in the UK, but so are British citizens living in the EU.

	Quote:	Urs Max
	Otherwise freee trade agreements, which I know none of that includes FMOP, would be very difficult to implement, or impossible, or whatever the lack of FMOP would mean to them. .

But it's obvious there will be some free trade agreements in many areas. It will be such a complicated process because UK will have to get out of all those treaties, prior to Maastricht etc. which in turn will split the negotiations process in quite a few chapters. An all inclusive, one treaty that fits all economic areas will not be possible once the legal mechanisms will be dismantled. So practically the same deal without FMOP is out of discussions. They'll get rid of FMOP for sure, but also of some other agreements. Ironically, UK is practically engaged in a proxy war between USA and EU.

[marton]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	My guess is it will not happen for a long time. Apparently fast tracking the UK/EU trade schedules has died at the WTO with over 20 undisclosed countries objecting and the UK will no be required to do a full negotiation to get there... The group, I understand, includes USA, Argentina, NZ, Australia (?) and Russia. Of course a no deal with the EU would cause the number to go to at least 47 out of 160+....

It was always a naive idea by Brexiteers that Commonwealth countries would step in and save Brexit.

The UK abandoned the Commonwealth when it joined the Common Market and will not be forgiven quickly!

	Quote:	lewton
	I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.

Well explained here:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/mone...-uk/vp-BBNMhCj

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	lewton
	I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.

Well given the Russians and the Argentines are also objecting, I’d say the US is the least of their worries! And apart from being able to exclude the EU 27 and the couple of countries that have acknowledged it, we don’t know who else is in the 20 or so objections lodged to date.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	Jim2007
	...we don’t know who else is in the 20 or so objections lodged to date.

Moldova is one.

My mate's been rabbiting on about this bad blood with Modova for months now. His stock answer to Brexiteers is how the UK only had 27 other countries to deal with in the EU. In the WTO, the UK will have 164 countries that can veto them.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...k-1-7-trillion

https://www.economist.com/britain/20...-moldovan-veto

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	Moldova is one. My mate's been rabbiting on about this bad blood with Modova for months now. His stock answer to Brexiteers is how the UK only had 27 other countries to deal with in the EU. In the WTO, the UK will have 164 countries that can veto them. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...k-1-7-trillion https://www.economist.com/britain/20...-moldovan-veto

Haha, they have a point. Remember how upset you were when Trump wanted to ban some Muslim countries? It seems UK had the same attitude. Not granting visas to officials who wanted to discuss the future of bilateral relations post-Brexit, not some simpletons willing to just visit UK, it is a big diplomatic affront that even a tiny country like Moldova shouldn't let anyone get away with. Frankly, it's well deserved. Why should they let it go and not react, and make everything easy for UK? Well, I hope it's only that and not Russia's influence....
Anyway, if it's one of the 20, it seems odd that your friend is rabbiting only about this country and doesn't see their point too. If all will agree, Moldova won't stand alone, no worries...

	Quote:	Urs Max
	I don't think that's true, look up Lex Bonny. While its applicability has been reduced by a lot and replaced by a successor regulation tax reduction (perhaps complete elimination) for up to ten years is still used to increase CH's attractiveness.

Lex Bonny is very specific to mitigate job losses in industrial Gemeindes of CH. More importantly to our discussion with FMF, it does NOT get applied to selective companies (i.e. no sweetheart deals) and is available to ANY company that fulfils certain criteria...

1. Must be considered an industry (i.e. manufactures goods)
2. Must be a new concern
3. Must be of benefit to the Gemeinde / Canton.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	greenmount
	Frankly, it's well deserved. Why should they let it go and not react, and make everything easy for UK? Well, I hope it's only that and not Russia's influence.... Anyway, if it's one of the 20, it seems odd that your friend is rabbiting only about this country and doesn't see their point too. If all will agree, Moldova won't stand alone, no worries...

Oh he does see their point. He's been using the Moldova example to quash Brexiteers who claim that membership of the WTO can be seen as 'taking back control' when the reality is that it multiplies many potential issues because of the sheer number of members.

I see their point too, and totally agree that it's a huge affront. Governance of the UK is very far from perfect and blameless in many areas.

[John William]

Well with many British Expats and Immigrants due to be relegated to third country citizen status in
their adopted EU country, following a final Brexit.

Is now the time for them to write to their MP and ask for a replay ( the much vaunted 2nd Referendum )
and hope we can avoid relegation, the second time round ?

[Blueangel]

The problem with learning a new language is that I've become more pedantic about how English is written. I'm resisting the urge to scrutinise /correct your post John William. No offence meant.

The expat/immigrant experience of Brits in Switzerland is markedly different to that of Brits elsewhere in the EU. For example, there's a considerable move in Spain to have a number of MPs dedicated to represent overseas British nationals and voters.

As the British Ambassador explained at the Brexit roadshows, what is decided for brits in Switzerland, will largely be based upon the final deal between the the UK and the EU. However, Switzerland has expressed a desire to maintain a close relationship with the UK, and I keep hearing how people are being invited to renew their residence permits earlier than the expiration date on their current ones. Someone on EF was asked to renew their permit a year early, and mine was 4mths early. When it arrived, I was only expecting 1 or 2yrs, but was given a 5yr permit.

The big issue will come with the right to work in CH. I'm talking to friends in Spain and Germany to get an indication of how it will pan out here.