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View Poll Results: What would you personally prefer to happen?
I want the UK to stay in an ever-closer union 49 23.11%
I want the UK to stay in a loosely connected EU 68 32.08%
I want the UK out because the EU is bad for the UK 22 10.38%
I want the UK out because the EU is a bad thing 23 10.85%
I want the UK out because this would be good for the rest of us 17 8.02%
I don't really care 33 15.57%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #14321  
Old 26.10.2018, 12:00
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Clearly that's the EU's position but generally speaking I don't think that holds.

Otherwise freee trade agreements, which I know none of that includes FMOP, would be very difficult to implement, or impossible, or whatever the lack of FMOP would mean to them.

FMOP isn't necessary for the EEA either, but it is a necessity if the EU is to become some sort of federation or even a state.
A common market is not the same thing as a free trade agreement.

Outside of the EU, the nearest thing to a common market is the situation in the US where the federated States trade freely together with a common currency and free movement of people but have many of their own laws like Sales taxes.
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  #14322  
Old 26.10.2018, 13:20
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

So.... Who said it would be easy to maintain the WTO membership?
https://uk-mobile-reuters-com.cdn.am...rom%20%251%24s
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  #14323  
Old 26.10.2018, 13:28
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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So.... Who said it would be easy to maintain the WTO membership?
https://uk-mobile-reuters-com.cdn.am...rom%20%251%24s
From that...:

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"As expected, some trading partners have expressed reservations about our proposed treatment of Tariff Rate Quotas," Fox said in a written statement to the British parliament, referring to trading rights granted to major agricultural exporters.

Fox did not name the objectors but he will have to switch to "modification" of the British WTO agreement, giving other countries the right to negotiate and demand concessions from London, which could take years.
Sounds very like it's the US that are objecting.
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  #14324  
Old 26.10.2018, 13:54
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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From that...:


Sounds very like it's the US that are objecting.
There was a list of some objectors published a while back including US, Australia and New Zealand.
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  #14325  
Old 26.10.2018, 14:07
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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A common market is not the same thing as a free trade agreement.

Outside of the EU, the nearest thing to a common market is the situation in the US where the federated States trade freely together with a common currency and free movement of people but have many of their own laws like Sales taxes.
Sure, it requires the same legal framework but that doesn't require FMOP.
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  #14326  
Old 26.10.2018, 15:34
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.
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  #14327  
Old 26.10.2018, 15:56
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.
Oh the usual. GM foods, chlorine-washed chicken, hormones in meat, getting rid of all that inconvenient EU environmental protection, opening up the NHS to US firms, etc.
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  #14328  
Old 26.10.2018, 15:58
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.
My bet is on chlorinated chicken, hormone-laden beef and GMOs, among others.

See this tome on trade barriers (500 pages!!) the US published earlier this year.
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  #14329  
Old 26.10.2018, 16:53
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.
My guess is it will not happen for a long time. Apparently fast tracking the UK/EU trade schedules has died at the WTO with over 20 undisclosed countries objecting and the UK will no be required to do a full negotiation to get there... The group, I understand, includes USA, Argentina, NZ, Australia (?) and Russia.

Of course a no deal with the EU would cause the number to go to at least 47 out of 160+....
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  #14330  
Old 26.10.2018, 17:03
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Sure, it requires the same legal framework but that doesn't require FMOP.
A single, or common, market goes a lot further than a trade agreement: as well as tariffs and quotas, it seeks to remove various other barriers to trade.

Source

I agree FMOP is not required but is useful
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  #14331  
Old 26.10.2018, 17:05
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Clearly that's the EU's position but generally speaking I don't think that holds.
.
I guess it's used as a leverage in negotiations. There are much more important things they want to get out of Brexit. That's just a smoke screen imo. OK, there are a few millions of EU citizens living in the UK, but so are British citizens living in the EU.

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Otherwise freee trade agreements, which I know none of that includes FMOP, would be very difficult to implement, or impossible, or whatever the lack of FMOP would mean to them.
.
But it's obvious there will be some free trade agreements in many areas. It will be such a complicated process because UK will have to get out of all those treaties, prior to Maastricht etc. which in turn will split the negotiations process in quite a few chapters. An all inclusive, one treaty that fits all economic areas will not be possible once the legal mechanisms will be dismantled. So practically the same deal without FMOP is out of discussions. They'll get rid of FMOP for sure, but also of some other agreements. Ironically, UK is practically engaged in a proxy war between USA and EU.
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  #14332  
Old 26.10.2018, 17:08
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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My guess is it will not happen for a long time. Apparently fast tracking the UK/EU trade schedules has died at the WTO with over 20 undisclosed countries objecting and the UK will no be required to do a full negotiation to get there... The group, I understand, includes USA, Argentina, NZ, Australia (?) and Russia.

Of course a no deal with the EU would cause the number to go to at least 47 out of 160+....
It was always a naive idea by Brexiteers that Commonwealth countries would step in and save Brexit.

The UK abandoned the Commonwealth when it joined the Common Market and will not be forgiven quickly!
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  #14333  
Old 26.10.2018, 23:15
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.
Well explained here:

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/video/mone...-uk/vp-BBNMhCj
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  #14334  
Old 27.10.2018, 00:57
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I'm wondering what kind of concessions the US might be demanding in order to let the UK's WTO membership go though rapidly.
Well given the Russians and the Argentines are also objecting, I’d say the US is the least of their worries! And apart from being able to exclude the EU 27 and the couple of countries that have acknowledged it, we don’t know who else is in the 20 or so objections lodged to date.
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  #14335  
Old 27.10.2018, 02:30
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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...we don’t know who else is in the 20 or so objections lodged to date.
Moldova is one.

My mate's been rabbiting on about this bad blood with Modova for months now. His stock answer to Brexiteers is how the UK only had 27 other countries to deal with in the EU. In the WTO, the UK will have 164 countries that can veto them.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...k-1-7-trillion

https://www.economist.com/britain/20...-moldovan-veto
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  #14336  
Old 27.10.2018, 14:36
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Moldova is one.

My mate's been rabbiting on about this bad blood with Modova for months now. His stock answer to Brexiteers is how the UK only had 27 other countries to deal with in the EU. In the WTO, the UK will have 164 countries that can veto them.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...k-1-7-trillion

https://www.economist.com/britain/20...-moldovan-veto
Haha, they have a point. Remember how upset you were when Trump wanted to ban some Muslim countries? It seems UK had the same attitude. Not granting visas to officials who wanted to discuss the future of bilateral relations post-Brexit, not some simpletons willing to just visit UK, it is a big diplomatic affront that even a tiny country like Moldova shouldn't let anyone get away with. Frankly, it's well deserved. Why should they let it go and not react, and make everything easy for UK? Well, I hope it's only that and not Russia's influence....
Anyway, if it's one of the 20, it seems odd that your friend is rabbiting only about this country and doesn't see their point too. If all will agree, Moldova won't stand alone, no worries...

Last edited by greenmount; 27.10.2018 at 15:01.
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  #14337  
Old 27.10.2018, 15:17
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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I don't think that's true, look up Lex Bonny. While its applicability has been reduced by a lot and replaced by a successor regulation tax reduction (perhaps complete elimination) for up to ten years is still used to increase CH's attractiveness.
Lex Bonny is very specific to mitigate job losses in industrial Gemeindes of CH. More importantly to our discussion with FMF, it does NOT get applied to selective companies (i.e. no sweetheart deals) and is available to ANY company that fulfils certain criteria...

1. Must be considered an industry (i.e. manufactures goods)
2. Must be a new concern
3. Must be of benefit to the Gemeinde / Canton.
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  #14338  
Old 27.10.2018, 19:35
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

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Frankly, it's well deserved. Why should they let it go and not react, and make everything easy for UK? Well, I hope it's only that and not Russia's influence....
Anyway, if it's one of the 20, it seems odd that your friend is rabbiting only about this country and doesn't see their point too. If all will agree, Moldova won't stand alone, no worries...
Oh he does see their point. He's been using the Moldova example to quash Brexiteers who claim that membership of the WTO can be seen as 'taking back control' when the reality is that it multiplies many potential issues because of the sheer number of members.

I see their point too, and totally agree that it's a huge affront. Governance of the UK is very far from perfect and blameless in many areas.
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  #14339  
Old 27.10.2018, 20:02
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

Well with many British Expats and Immigrants due to be relegated to third country citizen status in
their adopted EU country, following a final Brexit.

Is now the time for them to write to their MP and ask for a replay ( the much vaunted 2nd Referendum )
and hope we can avoid relegation, the second time round ?

Last edited by John William; 27.10.2018 at 20:20.
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  #14340  
Old 27.10.2018, 20:42
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Re: The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in

The problem with learning a new language is that I've become more pedantic about how English is written. I'm resisting the urge to scrutinise /correct your post John William. No offence meant.

The expat/immigrant experience of Brits in Switzerland is markedly different to that of Brits elsewhere in the EU. For example, there's a considerable move in Spain to have a number of MPs dedicated to represent overseas British nationals and voters.

As the British Ambassador explained at the Brexit roadshows, what is decided for brits in Switzerland, will largely be based upon the final deal between the the UK and the EU. However, Switzerland has expressed a desire to maintain a close relationship with the UK, and I keep hearing how people are being invited to renew their residence permits earlier than the expiration date on their current ones. Someone on EF was asked to renew their permit a year early, and mine was 4mths early. When it arrived, I was only expecting 1 or 2yrs, but was given a 5yr permit.

The big issue will come with the right to work in CH. I'm talking to friends in Spain and Germany to get an indication of how it will pan out here.
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