The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	The optics of the Brexiteers voting down the Brexit deal will not be good! Whatever the Brexiteers say it will be presented so; most voters will not bother to dig into the details!

I would say this has no chance of getting through Parliament, it's not what leave means in any shape or form.

[bowlie]

Speculation in the BBC that some Conservatives will be asking for a vote of no confidence.

But then what happens?

(When in trouble, or in doubt, run in circles, scream and shout.)

And now for some light reading..


Draft Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community, as agreed at negotiators' level on 14 November 2018

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I would say this has no chance of getting through Parliament, it's not what leave means in any shape or form.

Agreed- and as there is no magical middle way à la 'cake and eat it' - then remain is the only option. Glad we agree at last:

[Troublawesome]

Reality finally kicks in.

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	I would say this has no chance of getting through Parliament, it's not what leave means in any shape or form.

It looks like it’s not even true to any of the red lines that the PM set herself. Not a chance in hell it’s getting though a vote. Hard Brexit or Remain it is then - both preferable to this deal.

[marton]

	Quote:	Swisstree
	And now for some light reading.. Draft Agreement on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union and the European Atomic Energy Community, as agreed at negotiators' level on 14 November 2018

585 pages with no index

Only good point is the document is searchable so if you search for "ARTICLE" with Case Sensitive set you get to see the description of each Article (like Chapter Headings).
But with 185 Articles I lost the will to live after checking the first few!

Some gems from my first glances
- any reference in this Agreement to the United Kingdom or its territory shall be understood as referring to:
(a) the United Kingdom;

- at the end of the transition period the United Kingdom shall cease to be entitled to access any network, any information system and any database established on the basis of Union law.

- Article 13; Union citizens and United Kingdom nationals shall have the right to reside in the host State under the limitations and conditions as set out in Articles 21, 45 or 49 TFEU and in Article 6(1), points (a), (b) or (c) of Article 7(1), Article 7(3), Article 14, Article 16(1) or Article 17(1) of Directive 2004/38/EC.
It is very hard to believe the Cabinet Ministers locked in their rooms to study this agreement will work their way through all these (and similar Articles) to properly understand the effect of such conditions

- The recognition, before the end of the transition period, of professional qualifications, as defined in point (b) of Article 3(1) of Directive 2005/36/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council , of Union citizens or United Kingdom nationals, and their family members, by their host State or their State of work shall maintain its effects in the respective State, including the right to pursue their profession under the same conditions as its nationals, where such recognition was made in accordance with any of the following provisions:

- ARTICLE 33
Nationals of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland
1. The provisions of this Title applicable to Union citizens shall apply to nationals of Iceland, the Principality of Liechtenstein, the Kingdom of Norway, and the Swiss Confederation provided,that:

[Blueangel]

Apparently, May only has 'collective agreement' from her cabinet, as at least 10 ministers were "very vocal" in their rejection of the draft deal during the meeting at No.10. Rumour is that the mood was far, far worse than when at Chequers, and on that occasion, Davis resigned on the Sunday night and BoJo the following day.

Right now, anything is possible, but I'm in total agreement with Peston on May's future. I'll be very surprised if May, or Corbyn for that matter, are still in their posts by Christmas.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	- ARTICLE 33 Nationals of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland 1. The provisions of this Title applicable to Union citizens shall apply to nationals of Iceland, the Principality of Liechtenstein, the Kingdom of Norway, and the Swiss Confederation provided,that:

.....?? You can't leave us on that cliffhanger!

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Do you follow the news? It's the Brexiteers who will vote this down.

Unlikely I'd say. Oh they will do a lot of shouting that is for sure, but going on past performance none of them have the balls to actually stand up and take any responsibility for their actions, I don't see that changing this time either.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	.....?? You can't leave us on that cliffhanger!

Try to pick the bones out of this

	Quote:
	ARTICLE 33 Nationals of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland 1. The provisions of this Title applicable to Union citizens shall apply to nationals of Iceland, the Principality of Liechtenstein, the Kingdom of Norway, and the Swiss Confederation provided that: (a) Iceland, the Principality of Liechtenstein, the Kingdom of Norway, and the Swiss Confederation, as applicable, have concluded and apply corresponding agreements with the United Kingdom which apply to Union citizens; and (b) Iceland, the Principality of Liechtenstein, the Kingdom of Norway, and the Swiss Confederation, as applicable, have concluded and apply corresponding agreements with the Union which apply to United Kingdom nationals.

and this

	Quote:
	6. Regulations on bilateral safeguards – Regulation (EU) No 654/2014 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 15 May 2014 concerning the exercise of the Union's rights for the application and enforcement of international trade rules and amending Council Regulation (EC) No 3286/94 laying down Community procedures in the field of the common commercial policy in order to ensure the exercise of the Community's rights under international trade rules, in particular those established under the auspices of the World Trade Organization 2 – Regulation (EU) 2015/1145 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 8 July 2015 on the safeguard measures provided for in the Agreement between the European Economic Community and the Swiss Confederation 3 – Regulation (EU) 2015/475 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2015 on the safeguard measures provided for in the Agreement between the European Economic Community and the Republic of Iceland 4

[John William]

There was a lot of Stop Brexit !! heckling going on during Theresa Mays speech outside No. 10 tonight.

Also I don't think May would have got her majority endorsement from the cabinet, for the Draft Agreement
of the UK's negotiations with the EU, if David Davies and Boris Johnson hadn't resigned and were still
members of her cabinet.

Those that left certainly made it easier for her tonight.

[Blueangel]

So tempted to send her one of these... https://www.benthampottery.com/thele...tmugwithholes/

Theresa May in January 2017, "Not partial membership of the European Union, associate membership of the European Union, or anything that leaves us half-in, half-out.".

The more you read into the small print the more you wonder how on earth she and Olly Grima Wormtongue Robbins thought this would ever fly?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Do you follow the news? It's the Brexiteers who will vote this down.

Nope. Given there's only a bit over 100 Brexiteers in parliament they couldn't. At least not on their own.

It's going to be a nice mix of LDP, SNP, Labour (Remainers and Brexiteers), something like 20 - 50 Tory Brexiteers that will kill it. Possibly also with a handful of Tory Remainers and the DUP.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Agreed- and as there is no magical middle way à la 'cake and eat it' - then remain is the only option. Glad we agree at last:

Leave without a deal is the only option, A50 gives our departure date.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Leave without a deal is the only option, A50 gives our departure date.

Oh right and what is your plan then? Try to appease Russia and Argentina among the other 20+ objections at the WTO so you can get your trade schedules agreed, start trading on WTO terms and start trying and beg a traded deal of some of the members?

Come lets actually hear what the plan is??? Who do you actually manage to start trading on your own terms?

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Theresa May in January 2017, "Not partial membership of the European Union, associate membership of the European Union, or anything that leaves us half-in, half-out.".

Paying lip-service to the electorate which has zero bearing on reality? It's not like that's a new thing in this whole shitshow, is it?

[bowlie]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Leave without a deal is the only option, A50 gives our departure date.

With the agreement of the British electorate.

[Jim2007]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	The more you read into the small print the more you wonder how on earth she and Olly Grima Wormtongue Robbins thought this would ever fly?

Well going on the performance of the BREXIT MPs so far I'd say there is at least a 50/50 chance. Oh they do a lot of shouting, but not one of them so far has actually stood up and taken responsibility for the decision. No actually challenge to May's leadership, no insistence on a vote in cabinet yesterday, no resignations...

Would not be at all surprised if some of them find excuses not to be in the chamber when the vote is called.