The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Were you like me, wondering where BoJo was hiding and what he was up to. Well apparently planning with his bestie, Farage, and daddy- be afraid, be very afraid

Nah. It was a 5 minute 'Brief Encounter' worthy of Rachmaniov's Piano Concerto No.2. A 'what might have been', but I half expect it was followed by some finger wagging from Johnson Snr., along with a "Keep away from that nasty little boy or I'll rap your knuckles!" warning.

I currently only see one possible candidate for PM who could poll well amongst his peers. They already have a love for the man and his 'duty bound' affable nature, but his lack of steel and focus scare the crap out of me.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices...-a8583606.html

As my ardant Remainer friend said a few weeks ago after meeting him, "He's such a nice man! After a few drinks, he'll talk to anyone, which is both endearing and worrying, but he's just a nice man."

In coming days, just do a count of how many times he'll say "I don't want the job but I'll do my duty." He's a ready made, soothing PM that would allow the slithy toves to get up to all kinds of shenanigans unchecked. They'll keep him in tipples and he'll keep them in Werther's Originals.

Now are you scared?

TERRIFIED - NO SURELY NOT, HE CAN'T...

Now, who are the traitors in the UK?

So Bojo is in with Farage- and that lot:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...ERf5dr68Q1W9x4

	Quote:
	TERRIFIED - NO SURELY NOT, HE CAN'T... Now, who are the traitors in the UK? So Bojo is in with Farage- and that lot: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics...ERf5dr68Q1W9x4

What’s your point exactly?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	TERRIFIED - NO SURELY NOT, HE CAN'T...

He's perfect for it!

	Quote:
	So Bojo is in with Farage- and that lot:

I think you may be overestimating Farage's current range of influence. With Mueller becoming increasingly curious about him, nobody in their right mind can risk being seen in his private company. If anybody knows that, it's Johnson Snr. All that Farage can currently offer is a link to the mechanics behind populism, but he's a hot property at the moment for all the wrong reasons...

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8632751.html

... and yet the Press is covered with photos of all 3 having a nice chat in a pub yesterday. I mean, I have not been able to assess the accuracy of the date of this meeting/photo- but it 'looks' genuine.

Or perhaps both are up to their necks with Farage on his little deals, and they are trying to shut him up ... but then, why choose to meet in a public place? Bizarre.
They were NOT happy about them being photographed together ..,

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politi...-NOlTfYSrTbsiE

[fatmanfilms]

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...lic-opinion-br

Interesting polls, only 28% want to stop Brexit & remain in the UK as before.

[marton]

@LOZ183

"The UK will remain under the jurisdiction of the ECJ until eight years after the end of the transition period. (Article 158)."
That is actually not what this article says! It says that if a UK court is considering a question raised concerning the interpretation of Part Two of this Agreement then they can ask the ECJ for a ruling.

"the UK will agree to pay £40bn to receive all of these ‘privileges’. (Article 138)"
Article 138 does not mention £40bn?

I recommend you read the original agreement rather than this heavily biased interpretation.

[marton]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...lic-opinion-br Interesting polls, only 28% want to stop Brexit & remain in the UK as before.

You forgot to mention this was an answer to a multiple choice question and "to stop Brexit & remain in the UK " was the most popular choice.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What’s your point exactly?

clear as a bell- it says so in my post.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	... and yet the Press is covered with photos of all 3 having a nice chat in a pub yesterday. I mean, I have not been able to assess the accuracy of the date of this meeting- but it 'looks' genuine.

I've seen the photos, and it was a exclusive, expensive London restaurant, not a pub. Witnesses say the encounter lasted no more than 5 minutes.

Now...normal behaviour if a friend came to your table during dinner would be to ask them to pull up a chair and offer them a glass of whatever you're drinking, at the very least, but look at the body language here... BoJo stands to greet Farage (blocking) whilst Stanley is in a classic open, seated dominant male pose. Stanley is definitely the boss of the piece.

Now look at who Johnson Snr. actually is. 20+ years working for the EU. Devoted Conservative. Devout Remainer. Those are 3 damned good reasons to despise everything that Farage is, and has done to the Conservative Party and Britain's place within the EU. The two are hardly daggers drawn, but I strongly suspect that Stanley has a seething resentment towards Farage and doesn't embrace the prospect of his errant son being associated with him. If Stanley could stitch Farage up once and for all, and come away from it with his reputation intact, I reckon he would.

https://www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top...ppen-1-5755720

https://twitter.com/StanleyPJohnson/...33115227770880

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:	marton
	You forgot to mention this was an answer to a multiple choice question and "to stop Brexit & remain in the UK " was the most popular choice. Attachment 135024

Why would that matter, so 72% are broadly in favour of leaving as they don't want to cancel BREXIT

It does not look like the majority of vote leave changed their minds.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	You forgot to mention this was an answer to a multiple choice question and "to stop Brexit & remain in the UK " was the most popular choice.

Personally, I hate the word 'like' being used in a political question. It's too flimsy.

The second ballot I would like to see would be...

Do you accept the proposed deal to leave the EU? Yes / No

Do you accept that the UK leaves the EU with no deal? Yes / No

Do you accept that the UK remains in the EU on it's pre-existing terms? Yes / No

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	fatmanfilms
	Why would that matter, so 72% are broadly in favour of leaving as they don't want to cancel BREXIT It does not look like the majority of vote leave changed their minds.

How to read stats 1.1... Remove all responses that don't lead to a definite outcome. 1.2 In each of the two opposing groups, factor in what proportion of each outcome would cancel out another response within the same group.

e.g. Person A in the Leave group wants to accept the proposed deal but would reject a no deal scenario. Person B would only accept no deal.

Carole Cadwalladr does ask some very interesting questions:

But the most vital questions have not yet even started to be answered. What is Nigel Farage’s relationship to Donald Trump? How might that connect to Russian interference in Anglo-American politics and elections? And, crucially, why is the British government silent on these matters? Why has it refused to answer parliamentary questions on these issues? Why is it ignoring senior politicians’ calls for a wider public inquiry?

Britain and America, Brexit and Trump, are inextricably entwined. By Nigel Farage. By Cambridge Analytica. By Steve Bannon. By the Russian ambassador to London, Alexander Yakovenko, who has been identified by Special Counsel Robert Mueller as a conduit between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin. The same questions that dog the US election dog ours, too.

There is one vital difference on this between the US and the UK. America has the Mueller investigation. And Britain does not. With only months to go before Britain exits the European Union, there’s a rotten stench coming off this story. As Mueller painstakingly investigates Russian involvement in Trump’s campaign, compiling detail after detail about Russia’s deployment of information warfare and subversion of social media platforms—the same social media platforms at the center of British lives—this remains something apart from Britain’s Brexit trauma.

At the time of writing, our government is in meltdown. The Brexit deal is a national emergency. It takes all the heat and light. Our political journalists have, for months, reported every spit and cough, oblivious to what is happening in the world beyond and how it connects to Britain.

Full artice: https://www.nybooks.com/daily/2018/1...2Oe7uYmI2ITcsk

so what about Bojo and daddy- are they linked to that too?

[Blueangel]

That's the 'price' of populism. Normal checks and balances go out of the window and chaos ensues.

	Quote:
	so what about Bojo and daddy- are they linked to that too?

Stanley...no way!
Remember that he has 4 children:

Boris - Brexiteer Conservative
Rachel - Remainer, switched to Lib Dem
Jo - Remainer Conservative
Leo - married to a Muslim, strategist in environmental sustainability, non-political.

And never forget that Stanley himself, is a staunch Remainer. I have a grudging respect for any parent who can maintain the pivotal role in a family of such diverse, opinionated cubs, and also maintain the family unit.

[marton]

	Quote:	Blueangel
	How to read stats 1.1... Remove all responses that don't lead to a definite outcome. 1.2 In each of the two opposing groups, factor in what proportion of each outcome would cancel out another response within the same group. e.g. Person A in the Leave group wants to accept the proposed deal but would reject a no deal scenario. Person B would only accept no deal.

And usually one would not class the "don't knows" as "broadly in favour" ?

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	marton
	And usually one would not class the "don't knows" as "broadly in favour" ?

Precisely.

I read those stats as:

16% accept the proposed deal
19% accept want no deal
28% accept remaining in the EU
...plus...
19% have given a conditional response
18% have given an undetermined response.

Isn't that a 37% swing factor?

Instead of groaning FMF, could you give your interpretation of what BoJo, daddy and Farage were meeting up yesterday?

Planning a party? Their clown performance for Children in Need? - go on, you tell me.

[fatmanfilms]

	Quote:
	Instead of groaning FMF, could you give your interpretation of what BoJo, daddy and Farage were meeting up yesterday? Planning a party? Their clown performance for Children in Need? - go on, you tell me.

Why would I try to make up something when I have no information to work with?

[John William]

	Quote:
	Instead of groaning FMF, could you give your interpretation of what BoJo, daddy and Farage were meeting up yesterday? Planning a party? Their clown performance for Children in Need? - go on, you tell me.

Maybe they're planning a Coup d'etat ?, as they're exhausting the other possibilities of them trying to
oust May while they can.