The Brexit referendum thread: potential consequences for GB, EU and the Brits in CH

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Yes, and if they do a shit job they get voted out. Try that with your EU commissioners.

EU commissioners serve 5 year terms so in reality no different.

[greenmount]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Absolutely not, which is I am against anything which makes this become more likely.

Well, good luck with trying to be all on your own and rely only on your army and defence capacity. Though thinking from your point of view probably it makes sense - nobody will attack UK. Anyway, this project is so unrealistic at the moment you don't really need to worry it's gonna happen. Macron is (still) young and enthusiastic but it will take a lot more than this.

Seriously, I appreciate that you're engaging in a dialogue. Couple of years ago the atmosphere was so bad people couldn't even discuss about anything without insulting, losing their temper and snapping at each other. It was full of one post only users with aggressive pro-Brexit messages (courtesy of....I don't know whom or what, do you?)...there is some serious progress here. I have lived the Brexit times as some of you live Trump times now, that's why I am much more detached from what's happening there than some of you and try to take it and absorb the info with calm these days. And humour, admit it - Trump is comedy gold.

If you can read it...
edit: I'll post it anyway


Brexit and Trump: Easy answers to hard questions
https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...=.f200323406c1

	Quote:
	I’ve watched with grim fascination as Britain’s beleaguered prime minister, Theresa May, tries to sell her plan for taking her country out of the European Union. To put it mildly, and in their terminology, it’s an epic cock-up. On this side of the pond, President Trump’s return to his fearmongering, “American carnage” themes during our midterm elections was another grim reminder that we’re stuck with his dangerous, divisive ineptitude for at least another two years. These two events are closely related, as in both cases, significant swaths of a dissatisfied electorate (though not a majority in this country) rejected “elitism,” globalization, urban hubs and we’re-in-this-together in the interest of restoring some version of former independence and perceived sovereign greatness. Anti-immigrant and racist motivations were a big part of the mix too, of course, but they should not obscure the point that many voters in both cases rejected a status quo that they viewed as unresponsive to their needs, values, beliefs and geographical preferences. In this regard, “Make America great again” and “Take back control” were cries for insulation: Make the world go away, especially the people who don’t live near us and don’t look like us, along with those making decisions that, without our consent, throw us into sink-or-swim global markets. It is easy for those of us who benefit from the status quo to reject such apparent atavism. We cite economic analysis showing that immigration has not hurt the living standards of native-born people; we tout the benefits of technological innovation and “creative destruction”; we argue that expanded trade has been a net plus. Progressive elites, of which I’m one, argue that the carnage/Brexit narrative is designed to divide a potentially powerful working-class coalition that could, were it to unite at the ballot box, take the fight to the real enemy: the top few percent who are, as we fight about borders both in Mexico and Northern Ireland, rigging the game to redistribute even more income, wealth and power their way. But our rejection neglects a fundamental truth: Trump and Brexit offered voters an easy answer to a hard question. The question was: “How can we adapt to an unwelcoming economy?” The answer was: “You don’t have to; you can be much better off by rejecting it.” One can glimpse the falsehood of this answer in the U.K.’s struggles to implement the results of the 2016 referendum on exiting the European Union. As the March deadline approaches for the U.K. to leave the bloc, a concrete plan to do so is foundering on the same principle I’ve often cited in writings on Trump’s protectionism: No one knows how to unscramble the globalization omelet. In one of the oldest political plays, populists and other nostalgists have long risen to power pretending they can restore a former, allegedly blissful period for those left behind. The result has ranged from economic overheating and collapse, these days often triggered by a currency run (“sudden stop”) as financial markets abandon the offending country, to world wars and genocide. While neither of these results has beset the U.K. or the United States, of course, we are unquestionably witnessing the rise of racial and religious intolerance that too easily crosses the line to supremacy movements that preach and pursue murderous violence. There is, however, a much better answer, where “better” means both more realistic and fairer. The only way to successfully adapt to a global economy is not to try to unscramble the omelet. It is to ensure everyone gets a slice of it. In a way, this all gets back to the simple premise, one that to this day is too often denied by economists and policymakers, that expanded trade and immigration generate winners and losers. In theory, the fact that the winners gain more than the losers lose means the latter can be insulated not from globalization writ large but from its negative effects. In practice, however, not only does this compensation not occur, its opposite predominates. The winners use their winnings to further isolate themselves from the rest. It’s worse in the American case, where they also use their winnings to bankroll the politicians who give them tax cuts and deregulation, paid for by treasury-starving deficits and cuts to the safety net. Think of the energy and resources, employed both here and in Brussels (E.U. headquarters), that have gone into forming and promoting the status-quo policy agenda. I’m referring to decades of building and funding institutions and regional powers, from the European project to the World Bank to the interconnected global financial markets to Silicon Valley. Over the decades that these institutions were evolving, virtually no consideration was given to those who might be left behind. The assumption was that the benefits of global and market innovations would trickle down to them, and if they didn’t … well, then the solution was for them to acquire the skills they need to join the party. Going forward, we must reverse this emphasis. We must build (or rebuild) and implement the institutions (e.g., unions, political representation) and policies (e.g., subsidized employment, much larger wage subsidies and work supports, including child care, housing, and health care) that support those on the wrong side of the inequality divide. Much like the working class must embrace solidarity across race, the ruling class must wake up to the fact that absent an equal effort to protect those hurt by the status quo, easy answers like Trump and Brexit will continue to be on offer. Because these answers are fundamentally false, they will fail to address the prevailing injustices and inequalities, which, as noted, have led to tragic outcomes throughout history. It would thus be much better for all of us if we not merely offer the correct answer, but begin the work to make it a reality.

[marton]

	Quote:	greenmount
	But you can stomach dead kids being sent back from Afghanistan or Irak....my point is that there is a price to pay for being in these alliances. Those kids didn't die for Afghanistan, they died for their countries. As for a potential EU army attacking other European countries. Pleeease.....and no, I don't agree with this megalomaniac project as it's resources drawing and ineffective cost wise, we're good where we are now.

With the US withdrawing from the global scene, there is an argument for an EU army to stop the smaller nations getting picked off. Look at Ukraine and Georgia.

[amogles]

	Quote:
	In one of the oldest political plays, populists and other nostalgists have long risen to power pretending they can restore a former, allegedly blissful period for those left behind.

Well yes, only IMHO right now it is maybe both sides who are seeking refuge in some sort of nostalgia, just for different aspscts of the past.

The so-called progressivist or leftist bloc also spend a lot of time talking about how much better things were in the 1970, 80s, 90s, 00s when there was no threat from "populists" and they didn't have to debate, let alone shout down, all these uncomfortable questions. When the world was quite clearly moving in the direction they wanted to see and nobody challenged the mantras.

Now wouldn't it be nice iof we could turn the clock back, have that Nobel Prize winning guy back in the White House and pretend it could continue to be 2009 for ever and ever. Saying it's only the others who build their house on nostlagia is the pot calling the kettle black.

As long as people continue denying that there is some level of symmetry in the political debate and in fact that there needs to be this symmetry, this impasse will continue.

	Quote:	marton
	With the US withdrawing from the global scene, there is an argument for an EU army to stop the smaller nations getting picked off. Look at Ukraine and Georgia.

What the HELL has Ukraine and Georgia got to do with the EU?! Would you be happy sending your kids off to fight for that? And besides, there's already NATO there to prevent that happening. Members (within the EU) just need to start coughing up their 2%.

[Blueangel]

Looks like Gove's twitter has been hacked

	Quote:
	Michael Gove‏Verified account @michaelgove https://www.magiquiz.com/quiz/whos-your-game-of-thrones-soulmate/?utm_source=quiz&utm_medium=twitter&fb-share-results=9 … via @Magiquiz

https://twitter.com/michaelgove/stat...03558063190016

[bigblue2]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What the HELL has Ukraine and Georgia got to do with the EU?! Would you be happy sending your kids off to fight for that? And besides, there's already NATO there to prevent that happening. Members (within the EU) just need to start coughing up their 2%.

unless russian troops start marching into Berlin then no one is going to lift a finger not the EU, Nato no one.

Find it strange when people say that giving people a vote on the final deal would totally betray Democracy. Not at ll.

It is very simple to demonstrate that the first one was based on lies, fraud and foreign interference. That no-one, not even the Government, had any idea of the possible consequences, and that the 'having your cake and eat it' version sold was never on the table and never would be, and that Cameron, nor Mrs May and her Government, had done any planning whatsoever, nor any assessment of consequences and implications. Every one knows, that- yes, even Farage, even the thugs of the EDL and BF.

With the country so divided, with the Government itself so divided on what kind a deal they want (never mind one they can get ...) then it is the only way out. We all know ERG want and has always wanted, right from the start, a NO Deal - and most people do accept that would be a disaster for the country- and we must prevent that.

It is a dangerous option- as we could end up with a similar split - but then if we do - at least we will know it is 'the will of the people' and not just ERG.

Interesting to see Ken Clarke say he will vote for Mrs May's deal - not because he agrees with it- but to prevent the No Deal ERG clearly want.

	Quote:
	Find it strange when people say that giving people a vote on the final deal would totally betray Democracy. Not at ll. It is very simple to demonstrate that the first one was based on lies, fraud and foreign interference. That no-one, not even the Government, had any idea of the possible consequences, and that the 'having your cake and eat it' version sold was never on the table and never would be, and that Cameron, nor Mrs May and her Government, had done any planning whatsoever, nor any assessment of consequences and implications. Every one knows, that- yes, even Farage, even the thugs of the EDL and BF. With the country so divided, with the Government itself so divided on what kind a deal they want (never mind one they can get ...) then it is the only way out. We all know ERG want and has always wanted, right from the start, a NO Deal - and most people do accept that would be a disaster for the country- and we must prevent that. It is a dangerous option- as we could end up with a similar split - but then if we do - at least we will know it is 'the will of the people' and not just ERG. Interesting to see Ken Clarke say he will vote for Mrs May's deal - not because he agrees with it- but to prevent the No Deal ERG clearly want.

Seems the general public isn't impressed with the skulduggery going on to oust May as her popularity has increased with people wanting to keep her as leader until after the deal.

Indirectly, that's not a bad barometer on the general feeling about a No Deal, too, in that they don't one of the rabid hardliners flicking switches and pressing buttons.

	Quote:	amogles
	Well yes, only IMHO right now it is maybe both sides who are seeking refuge in some sort of nostalgia, just for different aspscts of the past. The so-called progressivist or leftist bloc also spend a lot of time talking about how much better things were in the 1970, 80s, 90s, 00s when there was no threat from "populists" and they didn't have to debate, let alone shout down, all these uncomfortable questions. When the world was quite clearly moving in the direction they wanted to see and nobody challenged the mantras. Now wouldn't it be nice iof we could turn the clock back, have that Nobel Prize winning guy back in the White House and pretend it could continue to be 2009 for ever and ever. Saying it's only the others who build their house on nostlagia is the pot calling the kettle black. As long as people continue denying that there is some level of symmetry in the political debate and in fact that there needs to be this symmetry, this impasse will continue.

To be honest, I see zero nostalgia over my decision to support Brexit, this was purely made based on the EU today and its future plans. Whilst I support peace and cooperation, ease of movement and tariff free trade, I could never abide a single currency, or army, or central bank, or single rule book, or central court, or single tax laws.

[John William]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Plus you can't compare different pension systems as they don't operate in the same way.

Which ever way you juggle the figures and stats about ( UK compared to other countries )
the UK remains 3rd from the bottom in the world rankings on state pensions.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:
	Indirectly, that's not a bad barometer on the general feeling about a No Deal, too, in that they don't one of the rabid hardliners flicking switches and pressing buttons.

All it needs is someone with a bit on gumption to draw up a 'pie' chart...a 'who's got a finger in which pies' chart...and it would blow most of her contenders out of the water.

As for a second referendum, whatever format it takes, it's about time they all recognised that the referendum result wasn't a golden ticket to screw the country over for their own personal gain, or that of their shareholders. Anyone who can't make that distinction is not fit to represent the people of the nation.

[marton]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	To be honest, I see zero nostalgia over my decision to support Brexit, this was purely made based on the EU today and its future plans. Whilst I support peace and cooperation, ease of movement and tariff free trade, I could never abide a single currency, or army, or central bank, or single rule book, or central court, or single tax laws.

"I could never abide a single currency, or army, or central bank, or single rule book, or central court, or single tax laws." but the UK has all of these?

	Quote:	John William
	Which ever way you juggle the figures and stats about ( UK compared to other countries ) the UK remains 3rd from the bottom in the world rankings on state pensions.

You literally haven't understood anything I've written. Go and tell every UK pensioner to live off a Croatian state pension for a few months, I'm sure they'd be delighted - it came top of the list after all!

[MusicChick]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	What the HELL has Ukraine and Georgia got to do with the EU?! Would you be happy sending your kids off to fight for that? And besides, there's already NATO there to prevent that happening. Members (within the EU) just need to start coughing up their 2%.

I think some are already. More than that. I know that the CZ gov has decided for 2.4 recently, to give our thumb up to a completely justified US request. I can see the US pulling out of Nato, anyways, in the future. It's not investment/benefit wise for them, at all.

As per another, new vote for Brexit...has anyone requested another go at Maturite, a day after failing? Can anyone retake a major or prestigeous exam, million times? For free? Nope. It makes the certification function.

Voting is a proof of what people want and how prepared they are to change the future. It is funny how now people seem to go great lengths to actually own up that they prefer May's hard brexit to no deal. While having spent so much energy arguing against it here for months. Just my 2 cents really.

Slovaks had wished to separare from the CZs. It was bad for them, we wanted to help, warned them to stick close...but there was no choice, it was important for them to have their own particular vision. They regret, we regret, but that step was important. To call it flawed, fake, a fraud and certainly foreing interference, I tell ya.. No.

People owned their decisions, their votes, honored their vision and did not backpaddle. I think turning back and trying to rewrite the history would not be wise, personally. It never is. We all have personal stakes in political affairs. What makes the system function, though, is agreeing to honor the decisions that have been done, think about the reasons and try to improve the system for the future. Not rewriting the past.

	Quote:	MusicChick
	As per another, new vote for Brexit...has anyone requested another go at Maturite, a day after failing? Can anyone retake a major or prestigious exam, million times? For free? Nope. It makes the certification function.

Actually people do retake exams. Maybe not the day after, nor "a million times" but it was a poor analogy nonetheless.

A further vote on the complexities of a seismic political event is not really an unreasonable development, nor can it be compared to resitting an exam. Unless, of course, you want to illustrate that something can be improved upon at a subsequent attempt?

[bigblue2]

what would a 2nd vote be on?

This deal OR hard brexit

that would be the only 2 options, and the uk population has already proved they are morons once, you really think giving them the option of a hard brexit would be a good idea??

As evident with the deal on the table, the uk isn't and never was in the driving seat, we need the eu more then they need us, they'll be just fine without us, but our little far from self sufficient island will be very screwed very quickly should even something as small as port checks be thrust upon us. It cracks me up when the roll out some MP of some back water place who goes on about how it'll all be ok, I lived in the south east most of my life, a couple of french fishermen in a row boat in calais harbour pissing around is enough to bring kents roads to a grid locked stand still.

[bowlie]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Yes, and if they do a shit job they get voted out. Try that with your EU commissioners.

Pray tell how does the average British Citizen vote out the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs?

Parliament can defeat the sitting government through a ‘no-confidence’ process but does not have the authority to vote out an individual cabinet minister.

Oh, and how do you vote out the Queen, or her chosen successors? You guys are going to be Stuck with Chuck regardless of what you actually want.

[John William]

	Quote:	Loz1983
	To be honest, I see zero nostalgia over my decision to support Brexit, this was purely made based on the EU today and its future plans. Whilst I support peace and cooperation, ease of movement and tariff free trade, I could never abide a single currency, or army, or central bank, or single rule book, or central court, or single tax laws.

Speaks for itself really - its the fear factor raising it's silly head again by those who
would prefer isolation and revert to being called Little Britain !!
Therefore - never fear Little Britain.

As my verdict is bring it on and that's why the above remains in the best interests of the UK
and Britain's millennial generation, as its them that will reap the misguided Brexit result.

Lets take the Single Currency - the Euro as an example:

Those that have been following Michael Portillo's Great Continental Railway Journeys will
know that Michael carries a suitcase full of old European currencies, that were all replaced
by the Euro, when the single European currency was introduced.

Throughout his travels he's never failed to ask the question from ordinary men and
women, in many Eurozone countries; namely wouldn't you rather have your old
currency back rather than continue with the Euro, and the answer is always the same NO !!
In fact in one memorable scene where he visited a car factory in Germany and asked the
same question to car workers ( having their lunch break ) that surely you would prefer
to see the return of the deutsche mark rather than continue using the Euro and even
there, every single car worker he asked, replied NO they would rather stay with the Euro.

[Blueangel]

	Quote:	MusicChick
	...has anyone requested another go at Maturite, a day after failing?

I used to work with a guy who retook his driving theory test 27 times But to answer your question, I've known a fair few people resit prestigious academic exams, and retake professional exams within a couple of weeks of failing the original.

	Quote:	Loz1983
	Go and tell every UK pensioner to live off a Croatian state pension for a few months, I'm sure they'd be delighted - it came top of the list after all!

I'm sure they'd be bloody ecstatic to have their state pension increased to 129% of their working wage.